Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Boston was 4-0 vs. Florida this season and eyes payback for last year's first round upset loss, but the Bruins are turning around and playing essentially 48 hours after a very hard-fought first-round series took seven games against Toronto. Florida has been off for a week since ousting Tampa Bay in five. Yeah, the Panthers might be a bit rusty out of the gate, but I can see the B's wearing down as the game goes on.
Gonna throw a bit down simply as Pete Alonso is getting the night off for the Mets and he's obviously capable of a three-run homer at any time. New York pitcher Sean Manaea has a 1.84 ERA on the road, while the Cards' Kyle Gibson has allowed just one earned run in three straight.
Castillo has allowed just four earned runs combined over his past four starts and the winds will be blowing in today quite a bit at Target Field. Thought about Over 17.5 outs but that's up to nearly -180.
DraftKings has 8 for this game so definitely shop around depending on your lean, but 9 does feel a tad high considering it's Royals ace Cole Ragans on the hill. No Brewers have faced him in a regular-season game. Ragans has allowed one earned or fewer in three of his past four. Milwaukee is nothing special offensively, especially with Christian Yelich out, and was blanked Sunday in Chicago. Converted reliever Bryse Wilson has a 1.93 ERA as a starter this year for the Brew Crew compared to 4.50 out of the pen.
This used to be the one series a year I'd go to the dump that is Tropicana Field because I wanted to see the White Sox. Even if I still lived in the Tampa area, which I don't, I wouldn't pay a nickel to see anything Jerry Reinsdorf owns at the moment. Major payback spot for the Rays off their embarrassing sweep in Chicago late last month. Josh Lowe has been activated off the IL for TB to make his season debut. He had a breakout 2023 season. Also the season debut for Sox pitcher Mike Clevinger. Might prefer him to the Rays' Tyler Alexander, but Clevinger won't be out there more than five innings.
I'll very rarely back a road game in a Game 7 in any sport. Dallas has played better defensively on home ice in this series (1.97 expected goals against at 5-on-5) than on the road (2.33). Since a 3-1 loss in Game 2, Stars netminder Jake Oettinger has posted an overall stellar save percentage of .944, including .960 in a Game 6 loss. Trust him a little more than counterpart Adin Hill. Stars forward Joe Pavelski (7-3) and head coach Peter DeBoer (7-0) can both match the NHL record for career Game 7 wins, a mark currently shared by six skaters and one coach.
Marty is on fire, up to .113 on the season! He actually has back-to-back games with hits. Hang on, I'm going to go look at this pig flying over my neighborhood.
My bad for not checking who the home plate umpire was Saturday in this matchup. Perhaps if I had known it was CB Bucknor I would have reconsidered. What a joke. The Sox used essentially every reliever they have so might be thin behind Garrett Crochet. Dylan Carlson has been activated off the IL for the Cards to make his season debut. They have been getting almost no offensive production from their outfielders so Carlson can only help.
Managers want to let their starting pitchers go at least five full to qualify for a win. Brown hasn't been very good this season and only gone at least five twice but I have faith. The first inning will tell us a lot as to whether he has any control.
Can't say I think much of Guardians pitcher Carlos Carrasco but that Angels lineup looks really weak today with the likes of Luis Rengifo and Logan O'Hoppe out -- plus of course Mike Trout is on the IL. Pitcher Griffin Canning is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA on the road.
Look, I don't want to be one of those grumpy old men (ain't that old) but if Jarrett Allen can't play in a winner-take-all, whatever man. Hockey player it up. Course, I also remember Scottie Pippen being ... I'll bite my tongue. He deserved Larsa let's just say that. Love to give more high-def information but this is simply a home play.