Larry's Past Picks
Pacers center Myles Turner has been a substantially better player at home this season, shooting 54.7 percent compared to 50.1 percent on the road. At home he shot better from beyond the arc, better from the foul line and grabbed more rebounds (7.6 to 6.3). The same thing is happening this series, as Turner went for 29 points and nine rebounds in each of Indiana's two home games. With Giannis Antetokounmpo still doubtful, I'm expecting a monster effort from Turner in this potential close-out game.
Norman Powell struggled mightily in the first two games of this series, but has gotten untracked over the past two with 32 points on 11-of-19 shooting. He has played 30 or more minutes in three games and is likely to get 30-plus again given Kawhi Leonard's absence and the Clippers' short bench (only three reserves play). The Mavs are weak defensively at guard. Look for Powell to score 12 or more in a pivotal Game 5.
Devin Booker has played 42 minutes in each of the last two games, and he should see another massive workload Sunday with Phoenix facing elimination. He dished out eight assists in Game 3, part of a season-long trend in which he's had more assists in home games (7.4 per game compared to 6.5 on the road). It was the Suns' best offensive performance in the series so far; they scored 109 points after failing to break 95 in the first two. Look for Booker to continue to be the primary distributor and go Over 6.5 assists.
James Harden has scored 21 or more points in all three games this series, while averaging 41.7 minutes. Kawhi Leonard (knee) is questionable and might sit after not looking like himself Friday. When Leonard missed Game 1, Harden scored 28 points on 9-of-17 shooting. Look for another 20-plus game from Harden, whether or not Leonard plays.
Jaden McDaniels is critical in this matchup because he guards Kevin Durant and, at times, Devin Booker. McDaniels leads Minnesota with 39.5 minutes per game in the series. Thanks to another two days off between games, McDaniels should have no trouble playing another 40 or so minutes. Look for McDaniels, who's averaging 8.5 rebounds plus assists in the series, to clear this prop total for the third straight game.
Kawhi Leonard grabbed seven rebounds in 35 minutes in Game 2. In his two previous meetings with the Mavs, Leonard collected 10 and six rebounds. Dallas gives up the third-most rebounds in the NBA (53.7 percent) and has yielded 59 per game over its last three. Leonard (knee) is questionable but expected to play. He is "feeling good" after returning to action Tuesday, per coach Ty Lue. Look for Leonard to play 30-plus minutes and pull down at least six rebounds.
Austin Reaves is a much better shooter at home and I like him to clear his scoring prop for the first time this series. Since the start of March, he's gone Over this total in nine of 12 home games. Reaves is getting an average of 35 minutes in this series, so the opportunity should be there.
The 76ers are coming home desperate after a controversial ending to Game 2. They're expected to get defensive stalwart De'Anthony Melton back in the lineup. With a raucous home crowd behind them, look for the 76ers to take out some frustration and make this series interesting.
Cole Anthony is 0 for 5 from beyond the arc in this series, but I like him to make at least 3-pointer in Orlando on Thursday. Anthony shot 37.5 percent from deep at home this season, compared to 30.2 percent on the road. He's nailed at least one trey in eight of his last nine home games. The Magic are desperate for offense, having scored 83 and 86 points in the first two games, so look for Anthony to get nearly 20 minutes.
Only two Denver reserves played more than 10 minutes in Game 1, with four starters playing at least 37 minutes apiece. Jamal Murray tied with Nikola Jokic at a team-high 39 minutes and the point guard delivered 10 assists and six rebounds. He combined for 17 and 18 rebounds-plus-assists in his two previous matchups with LA this season. He also exceeded this prop in 13 of 20 playoff games (65 percent) last season. Look for another night of heavy usage and go over 11.5.
Without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers will need more from Russell Westbrook. I like backing the 35-year-old in the series opener because he's had plenty of rest. Westbrook cleared this prop total in all three meetings with Dallas this season, averaging 23 combined points, rebounds and assists.
The Rockies have lost six straight and sit 4-16 entering Sunday's doubleheader. In the opener, Cal Quantrill (0-2, 5.57 ERA) will try to slow down a Mariners lineup that's averaging six runs during the team's four-game win streak. Colorado has mustered just 10 runs during its losing streak. Back Seattle, on the run line, to stay hot.
Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker impressed in his MLB debut against the Dodgers, allowing two runs over five innings. I like Houston to do more damage Sunday because of how well the Astros hit lefties (.843 OPS, 2nd in MLB). Go Over 2.5 earned runs allowed for the 24-year-old rookie.
Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out, and Duncan Robinson is questionable. Tyler Herro will run the offense and he has dished out 26 assists in his last three games. While this is an incredibly tough matchup, Herro's heavy usage should get him to 6-plus assists.
Giants starter Blake Snell hasn't looked good so far, but he's dominated Arizona in his career, going 5-1 with a 1.11 ERA. Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery had a 10.57 ERA in two starts at AAA this month. He's ramping up slowly. Back the Giants in the first five innings.