Newsflash: Gobert can't come close to containing Jokic and I'd be shocked if they decided to truly sellout to doubling him now. So does that mean more KAT on him? That's fine I think The Joker can take him off the dribble and to the rim. They can't collapse on him with Gordon and Murray and Porter shooting so well. This is a close-out game for me, and Jokic has another 30 in him knowing the importance of getting some RnR before the WCF. I see him taking matters into his own hands quite a bit and going to the line quite a bit

The Nuggets I expected to see all along in playoffs have finally materialized, and the young Wolves are on the ropes. Momentum is fleeting and the longer this series goes the more Murray not being banned from Game 3 looms large. Denver has found its bench and honed its rotations while the Wolves suddenly are looking for answers. I don't think the pressure and scrutiny will bring out the best in KAT and Gobert and now MIN is the frustrated team. They can't stop The Joker and he can take this game over himself, knowing the import of extra rest before the WCF. MIN needed to keep this a low scoring series, but Nugs cracked the code, scoring 112, 115, 117 in 3 wins.

Jones doesnt have quite the strikeout numbers the last few times out, but he has been great. Steele is coming back from a long absence and I haven't loved what I've seen. If Jones can stay away from Bellinger's barrel I see a nice opportunity to make some plus money here.

The Phils lineup is rockn and rolling and this version of Quintana isn't nearly as sharp as years past and I love the way Philly is playing at home (16-7). They have won 8 of 10 and their +72 run differential is second in the NL. The are getting plenty of shots in on the Mets bullpen in this series already. Walker hasn't been special for the Phils but they've won all 3 of his starts. Phillies have the 2nd best OBP vs lefties and Quintana has been getting into trouble allowing too many men to reach base. He's allowed 12 ER in 2 starts this month (7 2/3 IP)

Max Muncy owns the Giants starter and where he is hitting in the lineup, it stands to reason that Webb will have already thrown a lot of pitches to elite hitters and be fatigued a little bit mentally and physically if Ohtani, Freeman and Betts make him work as much as I figure. Muncy has 3 HR off him in just 24 ABs along with 6 RBIs. Cavernous ballpark with plenty of gaps for the ball to roll. Muncy has 32 RBI in just 36 GS (173 PA) at Oracle Park with a .979 OPS. SF pen already covered 10 IP in last 2 games, Dodgers getting a good look at the entire staff. I see them doing damage tonight

LA is running away with the NL West but we get them pretty cheap on the ML because their starter is undetermined as we cap this. However, they are finding ways to win a ton of games (MLB-best 16-4 in last 20) and bats are cooking. And while Logan Webb is a quality starter, peep his splits vs the heart of this LA lineup. They ain't for the faint of heart. Betts, Freeman, Muncy (all at least 24 ABs vs him with OPS of 1000 or more). Ohtani is in rare form even for him. And Dodgers can mix and match their way to a win here. Outscored SF 16-6 through first two games of the series

So far this series has followed the same pattern as the first round for the Mavs. Look flat Game 1, flex their muscles in the next two games and look ready to make it a short series, then play a low IQ ball to blow in Game 4 at home, only to then rebound on road. A passive backcourt and missed foul shots doomed them last game despite being the better team for most of the 48 mins. They seem to need multiple wake up calls but I think Kyrie gets this one and actually looks for his shot in a critical fifth game. Mavs show more guts on road for whatever reason. Experience will matter in pivotal game.

This series is starting to feel a lot like Boston's first round: Come off lengthy layoff for easy Game 1 win, stink Game 2, re-exert their dominance against an increasingly injured-compromised opponent over five games. They destroyed the Heat in Game 5 at home last round and with the Cavs injury woes mounting and the Celtics smelling blood this could get sideways fast. Boston regularly won by 15+ at home all season long and the Cavs are 1-7 in their last 8 road games with losses by 25, 23, 38, 19 and 21 in there. Boston came a garbage time floater from covering last game and that despite ridiculous shot decisions in the fourth quarter. Not sure Cavs have that fight still left in them

The surging Phils have a starter with a 1.50 ERA (and sterling FIP as well) on the mound today vs the Mets, who are looking for a spot starter as I write this. We are going to take our chances with a hot Phillies lineup that is particularly good at home (7th in home OPS, tied for 4th in home HRs) that Suarez is the better starter here and enters the 6th inning with a lead of some sort.

The Marlins have lost all 8 of Trevor Rodgers starts and lost them all by at least 2 runs. In fact. they have lost each of his last 4 starts by at least 5 runs. In those 4 outings he has recorded 49 outs and allowed 17 ER. The Fish have been outscored 63-18 in games he has started. The Tigers have not hit lefties well, but this is no average lefty and I like the power display from Tork lately, with pressure off deeper in lineup. Mize has been good for Detroit and can hold the weak Miami lineup down.

Mountcastle is a 30 HR guy whose value is up here because it's been more doubles than HR this season. But he has destroyed TOP pitching in his career (15 HR and 43 RBI in 53 G with a .323/.387/.607 slashline) and he crushes this lefty. I know Kikuchi has been better since coming back from injury last year, but Mountcastle is 7/15 off him with 4 homers and 8 driven in. I like him to get out of a slump vs a familiar lefty here and go opposite field into the flag court. He's been clearly try to go oppo a lot lately

As detailed in the HR prop write up, this is a vert favorable match up for Mountcastle and this scuffling O's lineup is bound to breakout soon and their HRs tend to come in bunches.