Mike's Pick (1 Live)
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This is a tough spot for the Giants, who are just 5-9 on the road. Erik Miller will serve as their opener. Daulton Jefferies, who gave up nine runs (five earned) over two innings against the Padres in his only appearance this season, should follow him and pitch multiple innings. For his career, Jefferies has a 6.33 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. The Red Sox will start Kutter Crawford, who has a 1.35 ERA and has yet to give up a home run this season. The Giants have already scored the eighth-fewest runs in baseball, so don’t expect them to be able to produce enough at the plate to come away with a victory. Back the Red Sox.
The Knicks are on the brink of advancing to the second round. Bojan Bogdanovic (foot) has been ruled out for Game 5, while Mitchell Robinson (ankle) is questionable. The 76ers have their own issues on the health front, with Kelly Oubre Jr. battling an illness and Joel Embiid missing shootaround Tuesday because of a migraine. While both will still likely play, they may not be at 100 percent. The Knicks also have a huge advantage with this game being played in New York. The 76ers were 22-19 on the road this season and lost for the first two games of this series in New York. I don’t want to mess with the spread, so I’ll pay the juice and just take the Knicks to win.
Kristaps Porzingis averaged 20.1 points per game during the regular season. In three regular season meetings with the Heat, he scored at least 17 points each time. That included one game in which he logged just 21 minutes because of a lopsided score. So, why is this number set so low? Probably for two reasons. First, Porzingis only scored six points in Game 2. Second, we could be looking at another lopsided score. Still, Porzingis scored exactly 18 points in both of the other two games in this series, which included him playing just 27 minutes in Game 3. This line is just too low for me to resist taking the over.
The Nuggets will go for the sweep Saturday. They also won all three meetings against the Lakers during the regular season and swept them out of the playoffs last season. The Nuggets are not a team to take their foot off the gas with a 3-0 series lead. I don’t want to mess with the spread in an elimination game, but I think the Nuggets win, so I’ll pay the juice and take them on the moneyline.
The Magic dismantled the Cavaliers in Game 3 when this series shifted to Orlando. While the Magic were 18-23 on the road during the regular season, they were 29-12 at home. I could see the home team winning all seven games of this series, so I’m on the Magic to even things up Saturday.
With Kawhi Leonard out for Game 1, Russell Westbrook chipped in 13 points and four rebounds over 23 minutes off the bench. He played 24 minutes despite Leonard returning in Game 2, finishing with seven points and nine rebounds. During the regular season, he averaged 11.1 points and 5.0 rebounds over 23 minutes per game. This line is set too low, considering that Westbrook is a key member of the Clippers’ second unit. Take the over.
Talk about two contrasting lineups. The Orioles have scored the fifth-most runs and hit the most home runs in baseball. The Athletics have scored the second-fewest runs and struck out the second-most times. As if that wasn’t going to make things difficult enough for the Athletics, the Orioles will start their ace Corbin Burnes. This has the makings of a decisive win for the Orioles.
Nikola Jokic averaged 26.4 points over 35 minutes per game during the regular season. Now that the playoffs are here, Jokic will spend even more time on the court. He logged at least 39 minutes in both of the first two games of this season. That enabled him to score 32 points in Game 1 and 27 points in Game 2. The Lakers need a win to have any chance of making a comeback in this series, so expect this to be a close battle. That should lead to enough minutes and shot attempts for Jokic to hit this over.
Nestor Cortes Jr. has logged at least seven innings in two of his last three starts. Both of those games came at home, where he had a 1.18 WHIP last year. On the road, he had a 1.35 WHIP. This is a great spot for him to give the Yankees some length again, given that the Athletics have the third-worst OPS in baseball. The Athletics will also likely be without their best hitter Zack Gelof (oblique), who might land on the injured list.
The Cavaliers took care of business at home, winning the first two games of this series. The Magic were only 18-23 on the road during the regular season. Things now shift to Orlando, where the Magic had a stellar 29-12 home record. These two teams are too evenly matched for the Cavaliers to put the Magic on the brink of being swept. Play the home team to win.
Even without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans put up a good fight in Game 1. They only scored 92 points, but their defense held the Thunder to 94 points. They had the sixth-best defensive rating in the league during the regular season, so it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that they were able to limit the Thunder. Including the playoffs, the Pelicans are 15-6-1 ATS as a road underdog. While I think the Thunder take a 2-0 series lead, I like the Pelicans to keep the game close enough to cover.
The Celtics are a lethal team from behind the arc. They shot 38.8 percent on three-pointers during the regular season, averaging 16.5 made triples per game. It propelled them to averaging 120.6 points per game. At home, they averaged 123.1 points per game. They scored 114 points in Game 1, making 22 of 49 three-point attempts along the way. As long as they shoot close to their season average from behind the arc, they should hit this over.
A dismal first half in Game 1 of this series ended any hope that the Mavericks had of opening things up with a victory. They made a push in the second half, but the huge hole that they had already dug for themselves was too much to ultimately climb out of. The Mavericks scored eight points in the second quarter of Game 1. That’s not happening again. They shot just 38.8 percent from the field for the game. That’s also not happening again. I still think the Mavericks win this series and I think they shift home court in their favor with a win in Game 2.
After a hot start, the Angels are 2-8 over their last 10 games. The Orioles are 7-3 over their last 10 games and are 15-7 on the season. They have played well on the road, posting a 7-3 record away from Baltimore. They have a significant starting pitching advantage in this matchup with Grayson Rodriguez facing off against Griffin Canning. Rodriguez has given up two or fewer runs in each of his four starts. That included an outing against the Angels in which he allowed one run over six innings. Canning has an 8.05 ERA and was touched up for five runs over five innings the last time he faced the Orioles. Take the Orioles to win this one.