Yoshinobu Yamamoto's xERA is in line with his 3.54 ERA, and he possesses the best Called/Swinging Strike% on the board today, at better than 34%!! He's generated whiffs at a solid rate to both sides of the plate and struck out 37 batters in 28 innings. Yamamoto has exceeded this line in four straight starts as he's begun to settle in, and even in the one "full start" where he missed the over on this line, he had five Ks in five innings (68 pitches) against the Cardinals. On paper, Arizona isn't a great matchup for strikeouts but the Nationals and Padres were also tougher matchups and he went over this line in those outings. At +115 on DK, I'll happily take a shot!

The Guardians are once again a tough strikeout matchup for opposing pitchers as they rank in the bottom five against right handed pitchers. They usually employ a heavy amount of lefties, which has been the tougher side for Verlander in terms of whiff rate and CSW%. While we saw Hunter Brown strike out seven on Tuesday night, he also got a bit lucky, punching out the final four batters he faced, as he only had three strikeouts through the first four innings. Verlander hasn't looked bad since his return but asking for six strikeouts vs the Guardians is not a small task.

In my opinion this should be at 16.5 outs for the current odds, instead of 17.5 (or at least -160 for this line). Sandoval hasn't gone six innings yet in 6 tries and he was under this line in 19/28 starts last year. It will be interesting to see what lineup the Phillies put out, with a day game following a night game. JT Realmuto caught all 9 innings on Tuesday so normally I'd say he sits here but he's caught every Zack Wheeler start so far, and he had the day off Monday so I think he plays. Also playing Sandoval over 1.5 walks at -163 on Caesars.

Philly scored 3 runs in the 9th last night to steal a game the Angels surely thought they had won, and I think that momentum carries into today's game. Zack Wheeler has been a stud and his xERA of 2.37 is only slightly higher than his 1.93 ERA, pointing to his results being very real. Wheeler has allowed just 2 hits in his last 13.1 innings while striking out 16 and allowing 0 earned runs in that time. He did walk 6 batters over those two starts but conveniently, the Angels feature one of the lowest walk rates vs right handed pitching. I think Philly does enough offensively vs Sandoval & Co to win by two. Shoutout to Sia who is on this from EE!

14 innings, five hits and 17 strikeouts. That's the combined performance of the past two starting pitchers for the Seattle Mariners; rock solid stuff against one of the best teams in baseball. This Braves lineup now looks to feast on a much worse starting pitcher in Emerson Hancock, after being held to three runs in the first two games of this series. Hancock has been hit hard nearly half the time (almost 60% to righties) even when isolating just his recent "great" starts, and his 5.36 expected ERA points to him not being a great pitcher, despite recent success. Hancock has also failed to throw more than 88 pitches in any start, so I'm backing the Braves to send him packing before 5.2 innings pitched.

I agree with Propstarz on fading Tyler Anderson to finish six innings against Philly. Played at +135 on Draftkings. In my opinion this should be closer to -120 for the under or at least at 16.5 for these juiced odds. Last start Anderson needed 105 pitches to finish five innings against the Orioles, and his starts of 6+ innings have come against the Marlins, Rays and Reds. Also played over 1.5 walks on Draftkings (-165). Anderson walked 2+ in 4/5 starts and I believe the Phillies lefties pose trouble for his walk total. The only caveat is Doug Eddings behind home plate; one of the most pitcher leaning umpires in MLB. But, I still think this line should be at 2.5 so I'm playing it.

Interesting spot here for the "Knuckleballer" Matt Waldron against a Cincinnati team that's been striking out the most in MLB over the last couple weeks. Their inexperience against Waldron and knuckleballs interests me, as I could see them striking out a few times in that first run through the order as they adjust to Waldron's style. At 4.5 here, this is a number Waldron has been around for most of his season so far, only finishing below four strikeouts in one start. While I don't think there is a massive edge numbers-wise, I'm going to take a shot at the over at nearly even odds. You can find this priced slightly better if you shop around as well.

PLAY THIS ON FANDUEL!!! I just played this at -124 on Fanduel (which is still 10 cents off of what my buddy Propstarz got this at earlier) but please do not play this on Caesars at the posted price of -160 when -124/-130 is widely available. Regardless of price, I think this line should be at 4.5, especially against a Phillies team that's been much tougher to strike out of late.

Clark Schmidt has not been bad this year with a 2-0 record and 3.55 ERA but his 4.58 expected ERA points to his future performances likely falling more in line with his 4.64 ERA from last year. He's struggled when attempting to go a third time through the batting order and the Yankees bullpen should be readily available for Aaron Boone to play the matchup game against the Orioles lefties as the game moves on. Schmidt went over this number in just 9/32 starts last year (0/5 this year), and I'm not convinced a road battle vs a tough division rival is the best spot to push him - especially after he struggled in the 6th inning last start vs the A's. -120 on MGM.

George Kirby doesn't have the underlying metrics or track record to be regarded as a 6-7 K per start kind of guy, but this year he's been at 6+ in 3/5 starts so far. That's giving us a line at 5.5 instead of 4.5 where I believe this should be. Also, the matchup with Arizona is not a good one for strikeouts by right handed pitchers, as they rank around the bottom five in strikeout rate. The number is moving but I just played this at -115 on DK so grab it there!

After striking out zero batters vs the DBacks last time out, I think Jordan Hicks gets back on track here at home against a Pirates team that's been hovering around the top-10 for strikeouts vs right handers. Hicks is a very talented kid with three pitches grading at 111 or better on stuff+, and the heavy mix of sinker/splitter/sweeper should cause some problems for this Pirates lineup. Played at +100 on DK.

Bailey "Over" Ober has cashed some tickets for us already this year with his outs prop and we're going to keep riding the hot hand. He's gone six full innings in back to back starts (both vs the Tigers FWIW) and at 15.5 outs, I have to back him again here. The Angels are starting to look like a solid matchup for pitchers again this year and Minnesota got just nine innings combined from Tuesday and Thursday's starters, leaving a lot of work to the bullpen. The Twins are in the midst of 31 games in 33 days, and could use any help to save the bullpen they can get. Their top 2-3 relievers have been used a good bit the last few games too.

The price on Ross Stripling to get a 4th strikeout is a bit light in my opinion at -125 (Draftkings). Over this line in 4/5 starts and while Baltimore hasn't been an easy strikeout matchup, that's partially why this is at 3.5... Baltimore can go with a lefty heavy lineup and Stripling was better at striking out lefties last year with a 12.5% swinging strike rate, but now that number is only half what it was, with little difference in pitch mix. One difference is a higher usage of his sinker, but this lineup has solid numbers against that pitch. If he limits using the sinker and leans on his heavier whiff % pitches, I'd feel much better about this one. Play to -150.

I like getting in here under 17.5 outs against Reese Olson, who has failed to complete six innings in 3/4 starts so far. He very well could pitch into the 6th inning again but to fully finish that inning is something totally different. Olson also has a Detroit Tigers bullpen behind him that's been one of the best in baseball and they're relatively rested over the last few days. Kansas City has some solid hitters in their lineup and over the last couple weeks they've been just about league average for OPS vs right handers, but that was down slightly from being a top-10 offense earlier this year.

Gray’s first two starts of the year came against the Cubs and Astros, two of the tougher teams to strike out, but the two starts after that have been encouraging. He struck out nine batters against Oakland and seven against Detroit, two of the highest strikeout teams, but this matchup with Seattle shouldn’t be much worse. Also, in a relief appearance this weekend vs Atlanta, Gray threw 24 pitches over 1.2 innings, with four of five outs coming via the punch out. He has an impressive swinging strike rate above 15% to righties and has raised that rate above 11% vs lefties. Even if he's been outperforming some of his underlying stats so far with run prevention, I think we can get a 6th K.