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    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays

    Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three MLB seasons, Matt is up $2,395 for $100 bettors. Over the past two NBA seasons, Matt has returned $3,215. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Matt is up $887. He went 103-89-2 (plus $665) in the 2023 college football season and 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @jordanpaytonsn1
    LAST 253 NBA PICKS
    +2271.25
    RECORD: 157-96-0
    # 3 NBA EXPERT
    +2271.25
    157-96 IN LAST 253 NBA PICKS

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    Matt's Picks (4 Live)

    May 01 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    Vegas
    @ Dallas
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit1.0
    +106
    28-17 in Last 45 NHL Picks
    +373
    16-7 in Last 23 LV ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Golden Knights are making a goalie change in Dallas. ...

    Pick Made: 7:40 pm UTC
    May 02 2024, 12:10 am UTC
    League
    Cleveland
    @ Houston
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit0.5
    +1407.75
    112-61-1 in Last 174 MLB Picks
    +584.75
    44-26 in Last 70 MLB ML Picks
    +1465
    40-16 in Last 56 CLE ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Justin Verlander makes his third start of the season for Houston. ...

    Pick Made: 8:56 pm UTC
    May 02 2024, 1:40 am UTC
    League
    L.A. Dodgers
    @ Arizona
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit0.5
    +1407.75
    112-61-1 in Last 174 MLB Picks
    +462.25
    12-3-1 in Last 16 MLB O/U Picks
    +361
    8-5 in Last 13 ARI O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    It should be a good pitching matchup in Arizona. ...

    Pick Made: 1:29 pm UTC
    May 02 2024, 2:00 am UTC
    League
    Los Angeles
    @ Edmonton
    Matt's PickSubscribers Only
    Unit1.0
    +1357.5
    42-21 in Last 63 NHL ATS Picks
    +765
    11-2 in Last 13 LA ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    The Oilers look to finish off the Kings in Game 5. ...

    Pick Made: Tue 8:13 pm UTC

    Matt's Past Picks

    May 01 2024, 7:40 pm UTC
    League
    Atlanta
    5
    @ Seattle
    2
    +1407.75
    112-61-1 in Last 174 MLB Picks
    +584.75
    44-26 in Last 70 MLB ML Picks
    +647
    48-29 in Last 77 ATL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Braves haven't been swept this season and I'm sure would prefer not to be. Their offense has gone to sleep of late but I think wakes up some today vs. M's rookie Emerson Hancock. ATL's Chris Sale has been quite strong other than one start. One good thing about this series so far is that Atlanta has not used any of its high-leverage relievers so they are all ready to go today. Mariners closer Andres Munoz pitched 1.2 innings last night and thus surely is not available. Because of the state of the bullpens, I opted not to do first five.

    Pick Made: 4:56 pm UTC
    May 01 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    Tampa Bay
    1
    @ Milwaukee
    7
    +1407.75
    112-61-1 in Last 174 MLB Picks
    +518
    26-16 in Last 42 MIL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    This series has been good to us so far. Really think the books continue to overvalue the Rays -- this is not the same club that made the playoffs each of the past five seasons. Also the end of a six-game trip for Tampa Bay ahead of the longest homestand of the season, so perhaps a natural letdown spot. Zach Eflin is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA on the road. His 2023 season continues to look like a massive fluke.

    Pick Made: 3:08 pm UTC
    May 01 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    St. Louis
    1
    @ Detroit
    4
    +1407.75
    112-61-1 in Last 174 MLB Picks
    +462.25
    12-3-1 in Last 16 MLB O/U Picks
    +375
    6-0 in Last 6 STL O/U Picks
    Analysis:

    Did not think this would get to 9 (ESPNBet has 9.5) and while I don't love it will play a little simply as getaway games in Detroit tend to be lower scoring and the winds are blowing in from right field a fair amount. Tigers pitcher Kenta Maeda has a 5.96 ERA but comes off his best outing of the season and has been very solid in three of his past four overall. Interesting (to me anyways) fact about Cards pitcher Miles Mikolas. He is one of 13 active MLB pitchers with 180 appearances and 150 starts who has faced 29 different MLB foes but the only one who has not faced the Tigers as their final opponent. That could help our cause.

    Pick Made: 3:07 pm UTC
    May 01 2024, 1:30 am UTC
    League
    Indiana
    92
    @ Milwaukee
    115
    +2271.25
    157-96 in Last 253 NBA Picks
    +2222
    101-48 in Last 149 NBA ML Picks
    +2066.5
    50-18 in Last 68 MIL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Seems highly doubtful that Giannis and Dame Lillard will play and in fact they are both listed doubtful. This would be quite a bit higher but Tyrese Haliburton is questionable for Indiana. Highly doubt he sits with the Pacers having the chance to finish off a short-handed Bucks team and avoid a Game 6.

    Pick Made: Tue 1:23 pm UTC
    May 01 2024, 12:05 am UTC
    League
    Washington
    1
    @ Texas
    7
    +1407.75
    112-61-1 in Last 174 MLB Picks
    +584.75
    44-26 in Last 70 MLB ML Picks
    +713.5
    26-12 in Last 38 WAS ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Washington is playing really well and just swept four in Miami but had to play Monday and then travel while Texas was off -- and the Rangers appeared to really need a break after playing in 22 of the past 23 days. Texas pitcher Jon Gray has given up one or fewer earned runs in each of his past five trips to the mound (including a relief outing).

    Pick Made: Tue 1:09 pm UTC
    May 01 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Orlando
    103
    @ Cleveland
    104
    +2271.25
    157-96 in Last 253 NBA Picks
    +2222
    101-48 in Last 149 NBA ML Picks
    +2084
    41-10 in Last 51 CLE ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The home team has won every game in the series by double digits, and I really see no reason why that changes Tuesday back in Cleveland. The Magic didn't top 86 points in either of the first two games there -- not leading once -- and are now 18-25 away on the season. The Cavs are looking to win three straight home games in a playoff series for the first time since winning the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Boston.

    Pick Made: Mon 2:23 pm UTC
    Apr 30 2024, 11:40 pm UTC
    League
    Tampa Bay
    2
    @ Milwaukee
    8
    +1407.75
    112-61-1 in Last 174 MLB Picks
    +584.75
    44-26 in Last 70 MLB ML Picks
    +826
    29-11 in Last 40 TB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Don't play the Brewers to win outright much because I don't think much of their offense, which was evident yesterday in 1-0 loss -- although we won on the runline. Milwaukee came out of that better bullpen-wise and while the starting pitching matchup was fairly even Monday. That doesn't appear to be today with Brewers ace Freddy Peralta opposed by Tyler Alexander.

    Pick Made: Tue 1:04 pm UTC
    Apr 30 2024, 11:10 pm UTC
    League
    Chi. Cubs
    2
    @ N.Y. Mets
    4
    +474.25
    21-5 in Last 26 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Can't say I love that Cubs lineup tonight with a few guys in there who don't normally play too often (Madrigal, Wisdom, Canario, Amaya). Manaea has allowed more than two earned just once all season. He doesn't go deep into games but that could be part of the benefit here. Get through that watered-down Chicago lineup twice and get out of there. The winds at Citi Field appear to be blowing in a bit.

    Pick Made: Tue 8:22 pm UTC
    Apr 30 2024, 11:00 pm UTC
    League
    Toronto
    2
    @ Boston
    1
    +106
    28-17 in Last 45 NHL Picks
    Analysis:

    The Leafs have two big problems: They can't beat Boston goaltender Jeremy Swayman -- Linus Ullmark started the only Bruins loss, but we won't see him again this series barring injury -- and Auston Matthews is still dealing with an illness. Matthews didn't practice Monday but did travel to Boston. I'd expect him to play Tuesday, but the Leafs simply look broken in the playoffs. Again. The NHL's longest Cup drought unfortunately will continue, and I can almost guarantee you that Coach Sheldon Keefe will be fired.

    Pick Made: Mon 5:07 pm UTC
    Apr 30 2024, 11:00 pm UTC
    League
    Philadelphia
    112
    @ New York
    106
    +750.5
    32-16 in Last 48 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Brunson could finish with 32/10/5 and we still win this. Have to do it even though the Knicks All-Star blew past this number in the past two games in Philadelphia. The SL Model has him at about 45 PRA and our AI projections at essentially the same. If I'm Sixers coach Nick Nurse, I'm throwing the Jordan Rules at him tonight and daring everyone else to beat them.

    Pick Made: Tue 2:51 pm UTC
    Apr 30 2024, 2:00 am UTC
    League
    L.A. Lakers
    106
    @ Denver
    108
    +2271.25
    157-96 in Last 253 NBA Picks
    +145
    3-2 in Last 5 NBA ATS Picks
    +230
    10-7 in Last 17 DEN ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    The Lakers obviously have to throw everything they have at the Nuggets tonight with the season on the line -- and they have been dominating in points in the paint in the past two games, so maybe they figured something out. Denver also is listing Jamal Murray as questionable. Jarred Vanderbilt has been upgraded to questionable for LA and would bring some needed additional size/fouls against Nikola Jokic. This feels like a really close game or a Denver blowout win. The Lakers have led by double digits in every game so far.

    Pick Made: Mon 2:56 pm UTC