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The first weekend of the tournament again delivered what we've come to expect from March Madness -- a healthy number of favorites advancing, some being challenged more than others.
There were some lesser-known teams gaining surprising wins and enough thrilling finishes to captivate casual and avid fans alike. As Greg Gumbel likes to say, "You can't script this stuff."
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| Clark doesn't expect to see a Western Kentucky win, but it wouldn't be a shock. (US Presswire) |
When the field gets to this stage, all 16 teams are legitimately capable of advancing, regardless of seed. While I believe that Kansas, UCLA, and Wisconsin will win their games, I would not be stunned if Davidson, Villanova or Western Kentucky advanced. Each has shown throughout the season and in the first two rounds of the tournament how good they are and can be.
Not to be overlooked is the role that confidence plays in the minds of players in the role of the underdogs. So with that in mind here's my take on Thursday's matchups.
West Region
UCLA v. Western Kentucky |
Preview
Many are bemoaning UCLA struggling to beat a very good Texas A&M team. Not an issue to me. Most championship teams in years past have struggled through an early tough game or two in the tournament; it happens more than it doesn't.
The Bruins have won 12 in a row and done so in a lot of different ways. The combination of experience, defense, the duo of Darren Collison and Kevin Love, the emergence of Russell Westbrook, the versatility of Josh Shipp and the contributions from its role players allows UCLA to be well suited to play and win games in the 50s, 60s, 70s or 80s.
Western Kentucky is a good defensive team and can be an explosive offensive team. Points off turnovers and making 3s are key ingredients in its wins. The Hilltoppers force 18 turnovers per game and shoot 39 percent from behind the arc. In Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton they have quite a dynamic duo, too. The pair average a combined 34 ppg, but they are the bulk of the Hilltoppers' offense.
I think UCLA will win because of its perimeter defense on Lee and Brazelton, and Kevin Love being too much for the Hilltoppers inside.
Xavier v. West Virginia | Preview
Xavier is the only team in the tournament with six players averaging double figures in points. The Musketeers have a lot of options and variety on offense. The defense is solid and stifling, if not spectacular. And it starts with good individual defenders and consistent ball pressure.
Though not a very tall team, the Musketeers are a physical team. Xavier is balanced, efficient and unselfish on offense while being persistent and tenacious on defense. This team doesn't have a significant weakness. But its greatest attribute might be its poise. Led by seniors Drew Lavender, Stanley Burrell and Josh Duncan, the Musketeers never seem to panic.
I think West Virginia can and will match Xavier's physicality and toughness. The Mountaineers defend with vigor and are an excellent offensive rebounding team. In Joe Alexander they have one of the nation's best players and most difficult matchups.
I see this game coming down to who controls the boards and whether Xavier's balanced attack can overcome the foursome of Alexander, Alex Ruoff, Da'sean Butler and Darris Nichols. These teams are evenly matched, but I give a slight edge to Xavier because of its offensive balance and unyielding resolve.
East Region
Louisville v Tennessee | Preview
The Cardinals were one of the most impressive teams in the field last weekend. In the win over Boise State the defense was solid while the offense was terrific. The Cards shot 56 percent from the field and made 12 of 24 3s. The huge win over Oklahoma featured "Saran Wrap" defense in holding the Sooners to 33 percent shooting.
The Cardinals are athletic, long and deep which lends itself to being able to apply defensive pressure in a variety of ways for an entire game. They simply wear out most teams. The offense can be a bit inconsistent when they settle for too many 3-pointers and forget to play through David Padgett, but that hasn't happened as frequently the last third of the season.
Tennessee was not as sharp in its play last weekend compared to how well the Vols have played most of this season. The unsteady play at the point guard position lately is a concern, especially going into a game against the kind of defense that Louisville plays.
But Tennessee has been a tough, resilient team and I anticipate seeing that team Thursday. The play-making and shot-making ability of the Smith's (Jajuan, Ramar, and Tyler) and Chris Lofton is formidable, and when combined with good defense gives Tennessee "spurtability" -- points in quick bursts. Tennessee's spurtability is often a key component in its wins.
However, with the matchups on the perimeter being close to even, this game could be determined by the play of the frontlines, and I think Louisville has the advantage there. Louisville typically gets more overall production from its frontline than Tennessee does.
North Carolina v. Washington State | Preview
Washington State has played "lock down" defense all season, allowing just 57 points per game. And then last week the Cougars got down right cruel, allowing just 40.5 points per game! Impressive indeed. But this team can play offense, too. It just does so judiciously and at a pedestrian pace.
The Cougars average just 49 FGA per game, but shoot 48 percent overall, 38 percent on 3s and average just 10 turnovers per game. They enjoy a four-point-per-game advantage at the free-throw line, too. Four players average double figures with Derrick Low's 14 points per game leading the way.
It appears as though less is more for this bunch of savvy juniors and seniors. The Cougars average 67 points per game and only four times this season have they gone north of 74 points in a game. Can they slow the pace and win against North Carolina? Maybe.
North Carolina is a high-octane offensive machine. No team plays faster better than the Tar Heels. With a pair of speed-merchant point guards, good perimeter shooting, multiple post-up options and quality depth, North Carolina averages 89 points per game and has been held under 75 points just four times; the Tar Heels won all four of those games. At times turnovers have been a problem, along with a lack of intensity on defense.
Against the Cougars, the Tar Heels have to be tight in both of those areas. Establishing an early lead could be important, too. But perhaps the most important thing for North Carolina to do is to show patience on both ends of the floor.
Having the mindset to grind it out on defense is essential to not allowing an opponent's deliberate pace to cause frustration. On offense, North Carolina has to balance pushing the pace with the patience necessary to get good shots every offensive possession. If North Carolina does that I think its depth, talent and versatility will be too much for the Cougars to overcome.
