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There was a joke circulating over the weekend that Duke had finished so poorly that it might drop all the way to a No. 4 seed.
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| Coach K and Duke ride their reputation to a No. 6 seed. (Getty Images) |
It lost its last three in a row, seven of its last 11. It was .500 in its league. It's clear to the naked eye this isn't the Duke of old. By old we mean 1996, the last time Duke was seeded lower (No. 8).
Then again, maybe I'm wrong. Gerald Henderson is back in the lineup. Put on your goalie masks.
Three storylines
1. Bill Self vs. his demons: Or rather the demons who pay $20,000 a year for their seats behind the Kansas bench. They're anxious, and if Self tanks it again in an early round, they're going to be a lot more than anxious. The good news is KU cannot lose to a "B" team until the national semifinals (that would be Butler). The last two first-round defeats have been to Bucknell and Bradley.
2. Trouble Bruin? Maybe. There was a point in the season when UCLA was favored to return to the national championship game. After an embarrassing loss to Cal in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament, you wonder how interested the Bruins are. That loss cost Ben Howland a No. 1 seed. Will it make any difference? His team made its Final Four run last season as a No. 2 seed.
3. The State of Kentucky: Gary Parrish has pretty much chronicled how Wildcat Nation is ready to run Tubby Smith out of Lexington. The bracket does not look friendly with Villanova in the first round and Kansas in the second. The No. 8 seed ties for the school's second worst since the field expanded to 64 in 1985.
West Region picks
Who will win: UCLA. Here's the reward for blowing that No. 1 seed: For the second consecutive year, the Bruins won't have to leave California until they get on the plane to leave for the Final Four. I was with UCLA throughout its run last year. Being close to home helps.
Dark-horse pick: Villanova. Good: There are few teams faster with the ball in their hands. Bad: The tournament is played in the half court, down and dirty. We'll see if 'Nova can adapt after playing in the gritty Big East. Scottie Reynolds is one of those kids who could capture the hearts of the nation. If it wasn't for Kevin Durant and Greg Oden, we'd all be talking about Reynolds. Of course, if it wasn't for Durant and Oden, Danny Ainge would have been fired by now.
Most likely upset: Virginia Commonwealth over Duke. If you've gotten this far, you are not surprised. Rams sophomore guard Eric Maynor will be the most dynamic player on the court. VCU thinks it can be this year's George Mason. It won't be intimidated by Duke.
Best mascot: You've got to love a school whose mascot was featured on the Conan O'Brien show as the "Florida A&M Road-Kill Squirrel." They're the Rattlers.
