Conference preview: Big 12

Sitting in a lobby of a hotel a few weeks back, I asked Rick Barnes about all his freshmen and whether he was nervous about probably starting at least four of them. More or less, the Texas coach explained he didn't have a choice, and so the classic sink-or-swim cliché was invoked.

"But the freshmen can't sink," Barnes said. "If they sink, we all sink."

Which is true, of course, and it's why predicting how Texas will be a season after losing five starters from an Elite Eight team reveals what it is us predictors cherish more, experience or talent. Me? I'm a talent guy, someone who believes new players who are very good will trump veteran players who are sort of good more times than not. And because Texas has lots of new players who are very good, I'm guessing the Longhorns will be fine and finish in the top quarter of the Big 12 despite having just one returning player who averaged at least three points per game last season.

Put another way, Kevin Durant is a swimmer.

I'm sure of that.

And that's why I'm confident he'll post the type of offensive numbers that will lead Texas back to the NCAA Tournament. So eat your heart out, Mark Spitz. Seven gold medals are impressive, sure. But a Big 12 Player of the Year trophy isn't too shabby, either. And if Durant swims the way he's capable of swimming, that's exactly what he'll be holding at the end of this season.

1. Kansas

Reasons to be excited: All five starters return -- including stars Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush and Julian Wright -- ensuring last season's problem (i.e. inexperience) won't be a problem again. Those veterans are joined by a stellar freshman class, and all together Kansas might have the most talented roster in the nation.

Julian Wright rounds out the crop of Kansas talent. (Getty Images)

Reasons to be depressed: Two McDonald's All-Americans, Sherron Collins and Darrell Arthur, figure to at least begin the season coming off the bench, and McDonald's All-Americans tend not to enjoy coming off the bench. So while Bill Self seems convinced chemistry won't be an issue, it's always difficult to know for certain in October. Also, senior leadership will be problem. The Jayhawks have no seniors.

How it'll all shake out: There are three teams in the nation that, heading into the season, appear to be a level above everybody else. Kansas is one, with the others being Florida and North Carolina. So any Jayhawks fans worried about a third consecutive loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament need not worry. This team will be playing deep into March, and perhaps into April.

2. Texas A&M

Reasons to be excited: Few teams, if any, have a better point guard-big man combo than the Aggies, who are led by Acie Law and Joseph Jones. That duo combined to score 31.4 points per game last season for this team, which lost by just a point in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to LSU.

Reasons to be depressed: The upgrade of the non-league schedule is nice, but it could produce some losses considering LSU and UCLA will provide steep challenges in a span of five days. On the court, rebounding could be an issue if Jones doesn't improve on the 6.5 boards per game he grabbed last season.

How it'll all shake out: The Aggies might be the only team with a realistic shot at challenging Kansas for the top spot in this league. Another trip to the NCAA Tournament should be a safe bet, and A&M playing into the Sweet 16 isn't at all a stretch as Billy Gillispie's reputation as the next hot thing in coaching continues to grow.

3. Texas

Reasons to be excited: A.J. Abrams provides a year of experience, and the young talent in place is among the best in the nation. Clearly, the star is Durant, a 6-9 wing who could be one of the best offensive players in the country from the moment he makes his college debut.

Reasons to be depressed: The entire starting lineup from last season's Elite Eight team is gone thanks to LaMarcus Aldridge, P.J. Tucker and Daniel Gibson turning pro early. Consequently, Abrams is the lone relevant returning player, and Texas will certainly experience some growing pains considering it will, at times, have five freshmen on the court together.

How it'll all shake out: Kansas struggled early last season while playing multiple freshmen, beginning with a 3-4 record featuring losses to Arizona, Arkansas, Nevada and Saint Joseph's. Don't be surprised if Texas has a similar rocky start while trying to play at least five newcomers, but then, like the Jayhawks did last season, they'll surely improve and eventually be tough. The talent is too good to not be successful. It's merely a matter of when.

4. Oklahoma State

Reasons to be excited: Mario Boggan, JamesOn Curry, Byron Eaton and David Monds provide Oklahoma State with a solid core of returnees that should make the Cowboys an NCAA Tournament team again under first-year coach Sean Sutton. And while Sutton is technically a rookie, that he has spent so much time around this program as an assistant to his legendary father, Eddie Sutton, should make this a seamless transition while players at other Big 12 schools -- like Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Missouri and Nebraska -- are still getting comfortable with their new coaches.

Reasons to be depressed: OSU had some offseason issues that forced Sutton to remove veteran Torre Johnson and incoming freshman Gary Flowers, so whether all the bad news is behind the program or is just a sign of a developing pattern is unclear. Curry wasn't as good as a sophomore as he was as a freshman. On the subject of patterns, that's one the Cowboys must reverse to compete near the top of the Big 12.

How it'll all shake out: Because Boggan is flirting with stardom, and he's surrounded by so many other key returning players, it's hard to imagine OSU not succeeding. Sutton won just 40 percent of his games after taking over for his father for the final 10 last season. That winning percentage should jump to around 70 this season, and don't be shocked if the Cowboys are competing with Texas A&M and Texas for second place in the league.

5. Texas Tech

Reasons to be excited: Jarrius Jackson is one of the better scorers in the nation, having averaged 20.5 points last season. He and the rest of his teammates will be on a big stage early while Bob Knight pursues the 11 victories that will push him past Dean Smith on the career list, and if the roster plays to its potential, it might not even take until January for the legendary coach to have his monumental night.

Reasons to be depressed: Though the roster has some experience, the core is the same one that went 15-17 last season, marking Knight's first losing record since he coached at Army. Beyond that, there are a lot of newcomers who will have a lot of responsibility, particularly in the frontcourt, where the adjustment to Division I basketball traditionally seems to be the most difficult.

How it'll all shake out: Knight will get his 880th win, it's just a matter of whether he'll finish the season closer to 884 or 892. If you're betting, bet on the latter if for no other reason than that Knight is too good to have two bad years in a row.

6. Kansas State

Reasons to be excited: That Bob Huggins has managed to go to a place in the middle of nowhere that hasn't recently cared about basketball and make people care is a testament to his star power. That top-level recruits like Jason Bennett (already on campus), Blake Young (already on campus), Bill Walker (should be on campus in December) and Michael Beasley (should be on campus next year) are following that lead serves as proof that this rebuilding job at KSU isn't going to take too long.

Poll What team will win the Big 12?   11%  Texas     59%  Kansas     20%  Texas A M     10%  Oklahoma State     Total Votes: 3494

Reasons to be depressed: While Young and Bennett are talented, trying to depend so heavily on them from the outset could prove frustrating for the easily frustrated Huggins. On another note, Huggins said recently that his best player, Cartier Martin, was playing well and listening after returning from an offseason suspension. But if the 6-7 forward slips up and loses focus, it could be hard for KSU to thrive without him as a valuable part of the rotation.

How it'll all shake out: This is probably the season before the season for Kansas State, though don't be surprised when the Wildcats upset a few people and are suddenly playing well in February. Huggins' accomplishments on the sidelines aren't an accident, and if there's anybody who could put this roster into the NCAA Tournament, it would be him.

7. Baylor

Reasons to be excited: Scott Drew continues to bring high-level talent to Baylor while the school moves past the 2003 tragic murder of Patrick Dennehy. The difficulty of not being allowed to play a non-league schedule last season is now behind the Bears, and a new practice facility is an indication the school is investing to compete at the highest level.

Reasons to be depressed: For Drew to get his best players on the court together would probably require him using 6-1 Curtis Jerrells, 6-3 Aaron Bruce and 5-10 Demond "Tweety" Carter, the latter a freshman who is the first McDonald's All-American to play for Baylor. That obviously would be a small lineup for this league, especially for a team that was consistently dominated on the glass last season.

How it'll all shake out: The truth is that the Bears are probably still one more season away from making a run at the NCAA Tournament. But as long as Drew continues to lure talented prospects -- like Class of 2007 shooting guard Lacedarius Dunn, who is Scout.com's 18th-ranked senior in the nation -- there is little doubt Baylor will recover from the mess Dave Bliss left behind and soon return to the Big Dance for the first time since 1988.

8. Oklahoma

Reasons to be excited: Senior guard Michael Neal is back after averaging 12.4 points per game last season. Junior guard David Godbold joins him, giving the Sooners two returning starters to ease the transition under first-year coach Jeff Capel and hopefully keep things from sinking too low until the Class of 2007 recruits, led by heralded forward Blake Griffin, arrive on campus next year.

Reasons to be depressed: When Kelvin Sampson left, so did Kevin Bookout, Taj Gray and Terrell Everett, plus the majority of the Sooners' recruits. Consequently, Capel doesn't have much to work with, and trying to make the NIT will be a challenge for this successful program.

How it'll all shake out: Oklahoma has played in 24 consecutive postseasons, but there's no guarantee a 25th is coming. At best, this is an NIT team. At worst, the Sooners will lose more than they win, and it'll be obvious Sampson got out at the most opportune time.

9. Colorado

Reasons to be excited: Richard Roby returns after resisting the temptation to take a shot at the NBA. He averaged 17.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game last season, and the junior wing will likely post similar numbers during this farewell tour for already resigned coach Ricardo Patton.

Reasons to be depressed: By failing to buy out Patton's contract last season, Colorado sacrificed the future of its program to save a few bucks. This is now a lost season, and whoever replaces Patton will inherit a roster that looks exactly like a roster that a school that doesn't invest in its basketball program should look like. In this league, Colorado's commitment to hoops is embarrassing. Unless there's evidence of a change in mindset by the administration in the next few months, trying to make a hire who can compete with the rest of the Big 12 will be difficult, if not impossible.

How it'll all shake out: This season is essentially a last chance for Patton to show other schools he's worth hiring following the expiration of his contract at Colorado. If the Buffaloes play well, Patton could land another job, and it wouldn't be a surprise if some Colorado players considered following him to a new location. But it's more likely this will be a very average season, though given the circumstances and what Patton has to work with, average isn't really that bad.

10. Iowa State

Reasons to be excited: Season-ticket sales are up at Iowa State, so it's clear fans are welcoming the coaching change that came as a result of a CBS SportsLine.com report that detailed Wayne Morgan's unconventional dealings with a California-based scheduling company run by a junior college coach. The new man in charge is Greg McDermott, who led Northern Iowa to three consecutive NCAA Tournaments.

Reasons to be depressed: The best two players from last season, Curtis Stinson and Will Blaylock, are gone. That's 34.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 11.6 assists missing from a backcourt that lacks experience and projects to start two newcomers.

How it'll all shake out: McDermott seems capable of returning Iowa State to the winning days it enjoyed under Larry Eustachy, but there's likely to be at least a year of difficulty before things get headed back in the right direction. Barring a miracle, this is that year.

11. Nebraska

Reasons to be excited: Barry Collier leaving his coaching job at Nebraska to become athletic director at Butler was good for everybody. It allowed Collier to get a fresh start, and for Nebraska to hire a coach who could increase interest among the fan base while offering hope. That hire was Doc Sadler, who was lured away from UTEP because of a hefty salary increase, and when he recruited Aleks Maric back to school, it meant the Huskers wouldn't be trying to find his 10.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game elsewhere.

Reasons to be depressed: Wes Wilkinson and Jason Dourisseau are gone after each averaged double-digits in points. Talented freshman Roburt Sallie was supposed to help cover those losses, but his inability to get through the NCAA Clearinghouse forced him to withdraw from school.

How it'll all shake out: Sadler is the type of guy -- folksy, funny, approachable -- who could make things work at Nebraska. In the long run, bet on him doing well, but this season should be Step 1 in a multiple-step process, especially considering he wasn't even hired until August.

12. Missouri

Reasons to be excited: The disastrous Quin Snyder era is over, and it has been replaced by Mike Anderson's version of Nolan Richardson's old 40 Minutes of Hell. The system was successful for Anderson at UAB, and there's no reason to think it won't eventually succeed at Missouri, too.

Reasons to be depressed: Thomas Gardner's early departure from school leaves Missouri without a returning double-digit scorer. Making things tougher, none of these players is familiar with Anderson's style, particularly on defense, meaning there will be a natural adjustment period before anybody is comfortable.

How it'll all shake out: Anderson's hiring has given life to a program that was in disarray, and he's good enough to get things turned around pretty quickly. Still, it takes a certain type of player to make this system work properly. So until those players are recruited by the new staff, this might be a case of trying to put square blocks through holes shaped like triangles.