Conference preview: Mountain West

Three different teams received first place votes in the official Mountain West Conference preseason poll produced by league media last week, and, you know, that seems about right. This is the only conference preview I've done where it appears any one of three schools could win the regular season title. So while I took issue with three ACC media representatives inexplicably giving first-place votes to Duke or Boston College instead of North Carolina, I have no problem with anybody picking San Diego State, BYU or Air Force as Mountain West Conference champions.

Any of the three could win it.

All three should be in the NCAA Tournament.

And that means this isn't too shabby of a basketball league, especially considering there's no BCS money and only nine members.

1. San Diego State

Reasons to be excited: Four starters are back from the Mountain West champions, including Brandon Heath. A 6-4 senior, Heath averaged 18.5 points last season and was the league's Player of the Year. He declared for the NBA Draft but ultimately withdrew, making the Aztecs a clear pick to return to the NCAA Tournament.

Reasons to be depressed: Had Marcus Slaughter followed Heath's lead, SDSU would be in even better shape. Instead, the 6-9 forward opted to begin a professional career a year early, so the Aztecs will have to replace those 16.5 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. The leading candidate to fill that role is junior college transfer Jerome Habel, but the 6-10 forward was suspended Wednesday, along with 6-11 forward Brett Hoerner, and there's no timetable for a return.

How it'll all shake out: Assuming everything is eventually fine with Habel and Hoerner, the Aztecs are the favorites to win this league. Under that scenario, they'd enter the NCAA Tournament with a solid seed, and then who knows what could happen? It's not like a Steve Fisher-led team has never run through the bracket before.

2. BYU

Reasons to be excited: Every relevant player outside of Brock Reichner returns, which is why nobody is again picking BYU to finish last in the MWC. Among the talented Cougars is Trent Plaisted, a 6-11 post player who averaged 13.6 points and 6.9 rebounds as a freshman while helping the Cougars to a 20-9 record.

Reasons to be depressed: The only real unfortunate thing for BYU is that the expectations have been flipped. Entering last season, first-year coach Dave Rose had little pressure because anything better than nine victories would've been an improvement over the previous season. Now, Rose is in his second year, and anything less than an NCAA Tournament appearance will be deemed a disappointment, meaning he'll have to figure a way for his Cougars to not miss Reichner, who wasn't a star but still a fine guard who averaged 10.4 points per game.

How it'll all shake out: BYU is good enough to challenge San Diego State for the league title if Plaisted continues to develop. But again, anything less than an NCAA Tournament will be labeled a disappointment, so the only question is whether Rose set the bar too high for himself with last season's stellar debut.

3. Air Force

Reasons to be excited: Four starters are back from a NCAA Tournament team. Three of those guys -- Jacob Burtschi, Matt McCraw and Dan Nwaelele -- averaged double figures in points during a season in which first-year coach Jeff Bzdelik led the Falcons to a 24-7 record despite not having the services of Nick Welch. A 6-8 center, Welch missed last season with injuries after being named to the MWC's second team in 2005. He's back.

Reasons to be depressed: The one starter missing is a good one -- Antoine Hood. He led the Falcons in points and assists, and his absence is certain to be noticeable considering he shot 54.3 percent from the field while averaging 14.9 points.

How it'll all shake out: With Welch healthy, it's reasonable to assume Air Force could be just as good as last season, when it finished tied for second in the MWC. If so, the Falcons will be in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year.

4. Utah

Reasons to be excited: Two of the Utes' top three scorers return, including Johnnie Bryant. The 6-0 guard averaged 13.1 points, just a little better than 7-1 center Luke Nevill's 11.6 points and 6.6 rebounds. Nevill, a sophomore, is from Australia. The last time Utah had a player from there (Andrew Bogut) in the middle, it worked well. Bogut went on to become the first pick in the 2005 NBA Draft.

Reasons to be depressed: The glory days of Rick Majerus have been over for two seasons, but now all holdovers from that coaching staff are gone. The biggest missing piece is Bryant Markson, a forward who averaged a team-best 13.2 points last season.

How it'll all shake out: It was once a given Utah would be in the NCAA Tournament. Now, not so much, though the Utes should still be good enough to make the NIT.

5. New Mexico

Reasons to be excited: Ritchie McKay went the transfer route to rejuvenate his program, welcoming J.R. Giddens from Kansas and Aaron Johnson from Penn State. Both guys are high-level, high-major talents, evidence being that Giddens started two seasons for the Jayhawks and Johnson averaged 11.8 points and 9.9 rebounds two seasons ago in the Big Ten.

Reasons to be depressed: While Giddens and Johnson are good, they've also been tainted by off-court issues. Giddens famously got into a fight outside a bar that led to his Kansas career being derailed, and Johnson got into an altercation last year outside a bar. So if nothing else, the Lobos have the experience to win a bench-clearing brawl, but not so much compete in the MWC. New Mexico lost four starters from last season's team, including Mark Walters, who averaged 15.5 points.

How it'll all shake out: On pure talent, New Mexico is an NCAA Tournament team. But squads of transfers -- the Lobos also have junior college transfer Jamaal Smith, a point guard -- rarely mesh well enough to succeed at that high of a level. So I'll play it safe and predict an NIT, while stating up front that this could be the surprise of the league.

6. UNLV

Reasons to be excited: Taking advantage of a silly NCAA rule that won't last, Kevin Kruger transferred from Arizona State upon graduation and will play his final collegiate season for his father, Lon. The younger Kruger averaged 15.0 points last season. He'll be inserted into a lineup that was already returning three starters, including guard Michael Umeh, who averaged 11.0 points as a junior before having season-ending knee surgery.

Reasons to be depressed: The Rebels would be returning another starter if Jason Petrimoulx had met academic requirements. But he didn't, and the senior guard is now at Georgetown College in Kentucky, a place almost nothing like Las Vegas. If you're interested, Petrimoulx had 18 points in an exhibition Wednesday night and nearly led Georgetown College to a victory over Louisville. UNLV could use him.

How it'll all shake out: Despite the addition of Kruger, UNLV lost too much to compete at the top of this league with a bunch of teams that lost hardly anything. Another season like last one is the most likely outcome.

7. Colorado State

Reasons to be excited: Jason Smith, a 7-0 gem and legitimate NBA prospect, returned for his junior season after averaging 16.2 points and 7.3 rebounds last season. He'll be joined by transfer Tyler Smith, among others. Smith, a former DePaul player, spent last season averaging 20.1 points at Northeastern Junior College.

Poll Which team will win the Mountain West?   56%  BYU     12%  Air Force     32%  San Diego State     Total Votes: 797

Reasons to be depressed: Jason Smith has been bothered by an ankle injury, and it prevented him from playing in the Rams' exhibition Tuesday night. Even when Smith plays, he'll miss the comfort zone that came with battling beside Michael Harrison. The 6-9 forward who averaged 12.4 points and 5.1 rebounds won't play this season because of what has been labeled "family issues."

How it'll all shake out: The loss of Harrison is huge, and it's hard to imagine Colorado State doing much in his absence. This projects as another so-so season for Dale Layer, whose job status will come under intense scrutiny if he doesn't make an unexpected leap in production.

8. Wyoming

Reasons to be excited: Though last season was terrible as a whole, the Cowboys actually finished strong, beating Air Force, Utah and nearly beating San Diego State in the MWC Tournament title game. Guards Brandon Ewing and Brad Jones are back from that team, and the duo combined to average 23.2 points, 8.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists.

Reasons to be depressed: Ewing and Jones are nice pieces to have back, but the losses at Wyoming are more significant. The starting frontcourt is gone, including forwards Steve Leven and Justin Williams; the latter averaged 11.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.4 blocks.

How it'll all shake out: The consensus is that coach Steve McClain might have saved his job with that late-season flurry, giving him one more year to turn things around. Alas, McClain doesn't have the players to do it, and that's not a good sign.

9. TCU

Reasons to be excited: Five of TCU's first six games are at home. That's a big deal considering the Horned Frogs were 0-15 in road/neutral court games last season. Guard Brent Hackett is back after averaging 10.4 points as a sophomore.

Reasons to be depressed: The Horned Frogs lost three of their top four players from a team that only won two MWC games. Included in that list are the top three rebounders, not good for a team that was outrebounded by 2.3 per game in 2005-06.

How it'll all shake out: TCU is the third of the three obviously bad teams in this league. The Horned Frogs seem certain to struggle again, and then Neil Dougherty -- just like Wyoming's McClain and Colorado State's Layer -- will likely be forced to convince his administration why anything figures to get better the following season.