Conference preview: Missouri Valley

I hate ties in awards and rankings.

More times than not, it's a cheap way out, a way to try to keep as many people as possible happy, or least from being unhappy. So we end up with Co-Players of the Year in a conference or Co-National Champions in college football. My normal reaction is that the people doing such things lacked the -- how to put this delicately? -- stones to simply make a difficult decision, and I get furious and call them names.

But today, I change.

In looking at the Missouri Valley Conference, it's hard to distinguish Wichita State from Creighton, or either from Southern Illinois. I placed those schools 14th, 15th and 16th in my preseason national rankings, and the reason is because the differences between the three are that slim.

Truth is, I could make a strong case for why any of them will win the MVC. So instead of assigning digits that are interchangeable, I put a No. 1 beside each name indicating a three-way tie for first.

It's not a copout, though.

In honor of the weekend's Breeders' Cup, I've merely made a boxed trifecta.

T-1. Wichita State

Reasons to be excited: Four starters return from a team that won 26 games and played in the Sweet 16, including Sean Ogirri and his average of 12.0 points per contest. P.J. Couisnard is also among the veterans, and his versatility gives the Shockers someone who can score and rebound from the wing.

Reasons to be depressed: While Wichita State's program seems bigger than any one player, it certainly lost a big player from last season. He's Paul Miller, a 6-10 forward who averaged a team-best 13.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.

How it'll all shake out: The loss of Miller can't be overstated, but the success level is sustainable if anybody gives anything in the middle, and Couisnard, Ogirri and Kyle Wilson merely improve at a natural rate. Another NCAA Tournament appearance is a safe bet. Another Sweet 16? That's possible, too.

T-1. Creighton

Reasons to be excited: Two words: Nate Funk. The 6-3 star -- and make no mistake, he is a star -- averaged 17.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game through six games last season before shutting down and having shoulder surgery. Now, Funk is healthy, and alongside big man Anthony Tolliver he'll provide the talent necessary to succeed in the MVC.

Reasons to be depressed: Point guard Josh Dotzler is recovering from knee surgery, and there's no certain date of when he'll be available, or if he'll ever again play at his pre-injury level. That 2005-06 backcourt mate Johnny Mathies is gone due to an exhaustion of eligibility means the Creighton backcourt won't look too familiar.

How it'll all shake out: The Dotzler injury is a major concern, but Funk and Tolliver -- plus guard Nick Porter -- are good enough by themselves to give Creighton its ninth consecutive 20-win season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament. A Sweet 16? That's possible, too.

T-1. Southern Illinois

Reasons to be excited: Florida isn't the only good team with all five starters back. Another is Southern Illinois, which won 22 games last season while making the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year. The keys are Jamaal Tatum (15.0 points per game) and Randal Falker (7.8 rebounds per game), the team's leading scorer and rebounder in 2005-06.

Reasons to be depressed: For a team that won a lot, Southern Illinois sure didn't score much. The Salukis averaged only 60.4 points per game last season, ranking ninth in the MVC. They were also ninth in field goal percentage (.412) and ninth in free throw shooting (.686). So consistently getting the ball through the hoop is obviously difficult.

How it'll all shake out: I'd feel better about SIU if SIU was a little better offensively, though in fairness it won't have to be if it again holds opponents to 56.5 points per game. Either way, I'm not betting against a school that's been to five straight NCAA Tournaments or a coach (Chris Lowery) who probably doesn't get the national credit he deserves for going 49-19 during his first two seasons. So another NCAA Tournament seems likely. A sweet 16? You guessed it; that's possible, too.

4. Missouri State

Reasons to be excited: The Bears led the MVC in scoring last season, and they could do so again with Blake Ahearn back. He's a 6-3 guard who averaged 16.2 points per game as a junior, and he should post a similar number as a senior.

Reasons to be depressed: If you can't get into the NCAA Tournament with a No. 21 RPI (that's what Missouri State had last season), how can you ever expect to get an at-large bid? That Kellen Easley and Deke Thompson are each gone after combining to average 18.6 points per game last season probably won't make things any easier.

How it'll all shake out: Missouri State is good enough to win this league, but it is probably a slight notch below the top three. Regardless, put the Bears in the Big Dance if you're into predicting things, if for no other reason than if they're close -- and they will be close -- then there's no way the NCAA Tournament selection committee can screw them again.

5. Northern Iowa

Reasons to be excited: A new 7,000-seat, on-campus arena has been built, and that's evidence that this school is -- like many MVC schools are -- financially committed to winning in basketball. Another good thing is that Grant Stout is back to play in the new building. The 6-8 forward averaged 11.8 points and 8.9 rebounds per game last season, and he seems recovered from wrist surgery considering he scored 15 points in an exhibition win Sunday.

Reasons to be depressed: The consensus is that the loss of Greg McDermott to Iowa State won't initially be felt because Northern Iowa merely replaced its successful coach with his lead assistant the past five years, Ben Jacobson. Still, the fact is that the Panthers are working with a new head coach, and it could be naive to discount that even if it made for the simplest transition.

How it'll all shake out: Northern Iowa won't only miss McDermott. Ben Jacobson -- last season's leading scorer who is no relation to the new coach, by the way -- is a huge loss, and that'll probably be a bit much to overcome. Expect another good season, but one that features the Panthers landing in the NIT.

6. Evansville

Reasons to be excited: Experience won't be an issue for the Purple Aces. All five starters return, including Matt Webster. He's a 6-8 forward who averaged a team-best 14.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Though it seems nice that everybody is back, that it's everybody from a team that managed only 10 wins last season isn't a good sign. So this isn't quite like Southern Illinois returning all five starters. Those guys have been winners. These guys have not.

How it'll all shake out: Perhaps the Purple Aces could finish slightly higher than this, but they're not cracking the top four. That means no NCAA Tournament, so an NIT bid is about the best possibility, and I'm not sure I'd even list that as a good possibility.

7. Drake

Reasons to be excited: Klayton Korver, brother of NBA sharpshooter Kyle Korver, is back after missing last season with a knee injury. He averaged 9.9 points two seasons ago, and he'll now join Ajay Calvin and Nick Grant, both of whom scored 17 points in Drake's final exhibition.

Poll Which team will win the MVC?   25%  Creighton     10%  Northern Iowa     33%  Wichita State     8%  Missouri State     24%  Southern Illinois     Total Votes: 1627

Reasons to be depressed: Drake returning a lot of key players is great until considering that nearly everybody who finished ahead of the Bulldogs last season also has most their team back. Making things worse, the Bulldogs were ninth in the MVC in scoring defense and field goal percentage defense last season. So, you know, that's what's back.

How it'll all shake out: Like Evansville, the Bulldogs could be slightly better than this pick and maybe finish as high as fifth. But they aren't cracking the top four, and another year without a postseason appearance seems likely.

8. Bradley

Reasons to be excited: The Braves are coming off a glorious run to the Sweet 16 that featured wins over Kansas and Pittsburgh. Coach Jim Les has used the success to capitalize in recruiting, nabbing Class of 2007 forward Anthony Thompson of Houston and Class of 2008 point guard Daniel West of Saginaw, Mich.

Reasons to be depressed: Bradley knew Marcellus Sommerville was gone, and that the exit would be a huge blow considering he was -- and don't let the NBA scouts fool you -- the best player on the team last season in averaging 19.0 points per game. Things got worse, however, when big man Patrick O'Bryant turned pro early based on the momentum from a career-making performance in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against Pitt's Aaron Gray. Combine that with the additional loss of Lawrence Wright, and the Braves enter this season without their top three scorers, a trio that combined to average 44.7 points in 2005-06.

How it'll all shake out: The loss of O'Bryant, a lottery pick, means Bradley is very much in rebuilding mode. Recruiting is solid, so it shouldn't take long. But this is going to be a step backwards for the Braves, one that likely ends with no postseason.

9. Illinois State

Reasons to be excited: Illinois State brought in a wonderful recruiting class to help turn things around. The prizes are Keith "Boo" Richardson and Dom Johnson, point guards who were junior college All-Americans last season. They should play together, giving the Redbirds the ability to play much faster than in 2005-06.

Reasons to be depressed: Though the newcomers are good, Illinois State doesn't return much of any significance. That's fine in general. But this is not the type of league in which schools with little experience typically succeed.

How it'll all shake out: The Redbirds will be much more fun to watch, and might actually be better as a team. But the transitional period will be obvious, and this is still a bottom-tier MVC squad.

10. Indiana State

Reasons to be excited: Cole Holmstrom, a 5-10 freshman, is showing promise early. He started both exhibitions for Indiana State, averaging 18.0 points per game in a pair of wins. His backcourt mate will be Gabe Moore, who averaged 10.3 points per game last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Only seven letter-winners return from last season, but only six are healthy because Jay Tunnell, a center who averaged 8.7 points last season, is still recovering from knee surgery. He'll be back, at some point. But the 6-8 sophomore did not play in either of ISU's exhibitions.

How it'll all shake out: Indiana State is without its top two scorers, and because the Sycamores couldn't win when David Moss went down with a hamstring injury last season, it's doubtful they can win when he's not even on the roster this season. Bottom line, another bad season is likely on the horizon. How bad, exactly, is the only unknown.