Conference preview: Pac-10

A Final Four team loses its best player only to ... return to the Final Four? Yes, it's possible at UCLA, where Ben Howland has created a monster that seems set to keep producing wins until he decides to stop recruiting.

Last season, the Bruins played in the national title game. This season, they could return. Next season, they should be even better -- barring NBA departures, of course -- because there are no seniors on the roster and Kevin Love, a 6-foot-9 center and Class of 2007 star, is scheduled to enroll. Granted, it might not result in a return to the days of John Wooden, but it's going to be as close as humanly possible in the modern era of scholarship limits and parity.

Bottom line, if anybody wanted to beat up on UCLA, they should have done it about three years ago. Now the Bruins appear to be the bullies again, and it's not changing any time soon.

1. UCLA

Reasons to be excited: It's not typical for a Final Four team to lose three starters and not slip, but this is not your typical Final Four team. Two of the top three players are back in Arron Afflalo and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. That they're surrounded by a splendid point guard in Darren Collison and healthy Josh Shipp means the Bruins have the talent to play into April again.

Reasons to be depressed: While Collison is good, it's likely the loss of Jordan Farmar will show at times. The current L.A. Laker understood Ben Howland's desires, and executed them well. No more Ryan Hollins in the middle means UCLA is also down an imposing force.

How it'll all shake out: Assuming Collison is fine, then UCLA will be fine, too. And if Mbah a Moute develops into a star and Afflalo simply does what he has already shown he's capable of doing, it's hard to imagine the Bruins not again factoring into the national title race.

2. Arizona

Reasons to be excited: The roster is loaded with talent, and there are future pros everywhere, specifically Marcus Williams and Chase Budinger. Speaking of Budinger, he was exceptional in the first exhibition. The freshman scored 24 points on 10-of-20 shooting, and if that's anything close to what he's capable of doing then I should probably rethink my pick for Pac-10 Newcomer of the Year.

Reasons to be depressed: Though Ivan Radenovic is a 6-10 forward, he'd just as soon be away from the basket as he would be in the paint. That leaves Mohamed Tangara as the dominant inside force, and he's not really a dominant inside force. Also, Williams has been limited recently by an ankle injury. He should be fine, but if it lingers for any reason then I should probably rethink my pick for Pac-10 Player of the Year.

How it'll all shake out: The Wildcats are talented, just as talented as UCLA, in fact. If chemistry isn't an issue, the freshmen are as good as advertised and Mustafa Shakur finally performs like the point guard everybody thought he'd be, then this is a team that will not only challenge UCLA for the Pac-10 title, but also challenge everybody for the national title.

3. Washington

Reasons to be excited: The Huskies have a history of losing great players and remaining great by simply inserting new great players. That's why Lorenzo Romar just got a contract extension, and why the expectations at Washington remain high. And, oh yeah, there's this 7-0 freshman named Spencer Hawes. He's back practicing after knee surgery and is expected to be dominant in his first -- and perhaps final -- season of college basketball.

Reasons to be depressed: The Huskies have absorbed losses before and been fine, and I'm sure they'll be fine again. But the reality is that the three top scorers from last season -- Brandon Roy, Jamaal Williams and Bobby Jones -- are gone. That alone is 43.8 points per game missing, so Hawes -- plus veterans Jon Brockman and Justin Dentmon -- had better be really good to overcome those departures.

How it'll all shake out: I'm giving Washington the benefit of the doubt because this program has earned the benefit of the doubt. But everything relies on somebody developing into a big-time perimeter scorer to ease the pressure on Hawes. If that happens, the Huskies will be ready to make another run at another Sweet 16.

4. Oregon

Reasons to be excited: The Ducks return most everybody from last season, including Malik Hairston, Aaron Brooks and Chamberlain Oguchi. Those three combined to average 35.4 points per game in 2005-06.

Reasons to be depressed: Hairston has been troubled by a groin injury, and his status for the season opener remains unclear. As always, there's the possibility the problem could linger, causing issues all season. Also, there's not a player on the roster taller than 6-6 who scored more than 7.2 points per game last season. So while an abundance of talented perimeter players is great, some balance would be nice, too.

How it'll all shake out: When Ernie Kent missed the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season, some fans started to turn. When he missed on in-state phenoms Kyle Singler (committed to Duke) and Kevin Love (UCLA), almost all fans started to turn, making this a make-or-break type of season for Kent, one in which he must exceed expectations or risk being replaced. It should all make for tense times at Oregon, but I'm guessing the Ducks will at least be good enough to play in the NCAA Tournament.

5. California

Reasons to be excited: Ayinde Ubaka, who averaged 14.5 points per game last season, gives Cal one of the better returning point guards in the nation. His main target -- besides the rim, of course -- should be DeVon Hardin, a 6-11 center who averaged 7.3 points and 6.6 rebounds per game in 2005-06.

Poll Which team will win the PAC-10?   18%  Cal     35%  UCLA     9%  Oregon     24%  Arizona     13%  Washington     Total Votes: 5207

Reasons to be depressed: Leon Powe, otherwise known as the Golden Bears team, left early for the NBA. Consequently, Cal is down a double-double, and there is nobody on the roster who seems capable of getting 20.5 points and 10.1 rebounds a game. Hardin is the most likely candidate, and he has pro potential. But he has been wildly inconsistent to this point, so there's much to prove.

How it'll all shake out: The loss of Powe will be too much to overcome. There's an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament, but the NIT is more likely.

6. Southern California

Reasons to be excited: Nick Young is back as one of the most explosive scorers in the Pac-10. He'll be joined by freshman Daniel Hackett, a talented combo guard who graduated high school early to become eligible this season. So what the kid lacks in athletic ability, he makes up for in brains, and that's always a good quality for somebody handling the ball.

Reasons to be depressed: The offseason shooting death of Ryan Francis was tragic. And not that it's important in the grand scheme of things, but the truth is that USC was left without a natural point guard on the roster, which is why Hackett is the likely starter. Making things worse is that guard Gabe Pruitt must sit out the first semester for academic reasons.

How it'll all shake out: The USC program is headed in the right direction, especially if O.J. Mayo ever actually publicly commits. Still, France's death and Pruitt's academic troubles should make this a tough season, one that will be considered solid if the Trojans make even the NIT.

7. Stanford

Reasons to be excited: Brook and Robin Lopez -- AKA, the Lopez twins -- anchor a recruiting class around which Trent Johnson can build. They are both 7-0 post players and McDonald's All-Americans. Mitch Johnson and Taj Finger return to give the roster some balance.

Reasons to be depressed: The top four scorers from last season -- Matt Haryasz, Chris Hernandez, Dan Grunfield and Tim Morris -- are gone, leaving the Cardinal roster depleted. Making things worse is that Brook Lopez is still recovering from back surgery and isn't expected to play during most of the non-conference schedule.

How it'll all shake out: Stanford is rebuilding after the departure of Mike Montgomery, and it's going to take longer than most had hoped. Last season produced an NIT. This season, an NIT would be a great achievement.

8. Oregon State

Reasons to be excited: Three frontcourt starters return, giving the Beavers experience. The best is Sasa Cuic, a 6-10 forward who averaged 13.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Oregon State failed to capitalize on the 17-15 record it had in 2004-05, slipping to 13-18 last season. Now that two of the top three scorers are gone, including forward Nick Dewitz, another slip could be unavoidable.

How it'll all shake out: There's nothing to suggest this team will be better than last season. So it's another losing season, another year of no postseason.

9. Arizona State

Reasons to be excited: Arizona State made a nice coaching change, landing N.C. State's Herb Sendek, who has been to five straight NCAA Tournaments. Apparently, that -- plus the weather in Tempe -- has helped in recruiting, because ASU has gained commitments from Class of 2007 standouts Jamelle McMillan and James Hardin.

Reasons to be depressed: When Kevin Kruger opted to take advantage of a new NCAA rule and transfer to UNLV to play for his father, it was clear the Sun Devils would be without their top scorer. That was bad. Then Bryson Krueger was arrested with cocaine, ecstasy, guns and all sorts of goodies, forcing Sendek to kick him off the team. That was also bad.

How it'll all shake out: With Kruger and Krueger, Sendek might be pushing for a sixth straight NCAA Tournament. Without them, things should be difficult.

10. Washington State

Reasons to be excited: Dick Bennett is a generous father, leaving his son, Tony, with a roster of experience. Junior guard Kyle Weaver might be the best of the bunch after averaging 8.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Taylor Rochestie, a transfer from Tulane, is eligible to play this season, and he's an upgrade in the backcourt. However, he's still recovering from a knee injury and isn't available just yet.

How it'll all shake out: The Cougars will play a little faster, and that's wonderful news. But ideas of a postseason appearance are premature considering the experience WSU possesses is mostly experienced in losing.