Conference preview: SEC

I've lived in the South my entire life, so I know what most Southerners enjoy. They enjoy sweet tea, nice trucks and Chinese buffets featuring tater tots. And garage sales, church and Chinese buffets featuring French fries.

Plus Jeff Foxworthy.

Honestly, the guy is legendary in the South (as are tater tots), and he's made millions of dollars with a gimmick in which he basically takes a phrase, fills in some blanks and repeats it over and over again to mass applause. It goes something like ...

You might be a redneck if ... you keep a spit cup on the ironing board (cue laughter).

You might be a redneck if ... you own more than three shirts with cut-off sleeves (cue laughter).

Hilarious, right? And it works, endlessly! So because this is the Southeastern Conference preview, I decided to play to my audience and use Foxworthy's formula to explain how good this league has become. If I'm lucky, the gimmick will make me a million dollars, too.

You might be a great basketball league if ... one school receives a No. 2 seed to the NCAA Tournament and two others advance to the Final Four.

You might be a great basketball league if ... three schools (No. 1 Florida, No. 5 LSU and No. 11 Alabama) are ranked in the preseason Associated Press top 11, and two more (No. 22 Kentucky and No. 25 Tennessee) are in the Top 25.

You might be a great basketball league if ... the 2005-06 NCAA Tournament champion (Florida) and NIT champion (South Carolina) are both members, and the NIT champion actually beat the NCAA Tournament champion twice in conference play.

I could go on like this for a while, but you get the point. The SEC is no longer just a football power. There's also a high standard in hoops, and don't be surprised when half the league makes the NCAA Tournament, and at least three members head into March with reasonable shots at the Final Four.

East

1. Florida

Reasons to be excited: Taurean Green is still the point guard. Lee Humphrey is still the shooting guard. Corey Brewer, Al Horford and Joakim Noah are still up front, and Billy Donovan is still the coach. How many reasons do you want?

Reasons to be depressed: None, really, unless complacency sets in. Problems will only come to Florida if everybody decides one national title was plenty. That, and egos, are the only legitimate concerns.

How it'll all shake out: As I've written before, it'll be difficult for Florida to win another national title if only because it's difficult for anybody to win a national title. To do it, you need luck and good fortune. Last season, the Gators had both. This season, they might not have either. That said, understand this is undoubtedly a team equipped to repeat, and Florida should be given the benefit of the doubt until something tangible develops to erase that doubt.

2. Kentucky

Reasons to be excited: Joe Crawford and Randolph Morris provide quality depth, and both are capable of finally becoming stars. And while Tubby Smith's recruiting has been panned recently, the incoming freshmen have looked good early, namely Perry Stevenson, Derrick Jasper and Jodie Meeks.

Reasons to be depressed: The consensus is that the loss of Rajon Rondo will be addition by subtraction, but that remains to be seen. Like him or not, the guy was still an NBA talent, and it'll be up to Ramel Bradley to prove this team is better without a point guard who averaged 11.2 points and 6.1 assists in 2005-06. That Bradley had 38 assists and 40 turnovers last season isn't the most encouraging of signs.

How it'll all shake out: The Wildcats haven't made the Final Four since 1998, and when they don't end the streak this season it'll be the longest such drought in school history. Consequently, even a Sweet 16 will be viewed by some rabid fans as a disappointment. That's why, though I'd love to have Smith's paycheck, I'm not interested in the accompanying stress.

3. Tennessee

Reasons to be excited: What Bruce Pearl did last season at Tennessee was nothing short of amazing, and anybody who didn't pick him as SEC Coach of the Year should have their voting privileges removed forever. In his fist season at the school, Pearl led the same unheralded roster that got Buzz Peterson fired to a top 10 national ranking while playing a fast style that's exciting to watch. Now, the best player on that team (Chris Lofton) and heart of that team (Dane Bradshaw) return along with a solid recruiting class featuring Ramar Smith, Duke Crews and Wayne Chism.

Reasons to be depressed: C.J. Watson's departure means the Vols will be using a new point guard. He'll probably be a freshman, and that's always risky. The real blow game when Major Wingate was dismissed during the offseason for reportedly failing multiple drug tests. That left Tennessee without its center, who averaged 10.6 points and 4.0 rebounds per game last season.

How it'll all shake out: Though Tennessee will be good and exciting, it's hard to imagine the Vols won't slip some. Pearl scheduled tough, thinking he would have an experienced center. Alas, he does not, so the Vols could take some early losses, but they'll still land in the NCAA Tournament.

4. Vanderbilt

Reasons to be excited: Derrick Byars and Shan Foster provide a pair of explosive scorers on the wings. Byars averaged 12.4 points per game last season. Foster averaged 15.9 while shooting 41.5 percent from 3-point range.

Reasons to be depressed: The Commodores didn't rebound well last season, getting edged on the glass by 1.2 boards per game. Now, their top two rebounders are gone, leaving a roster without anybody who averaged more than Byars' 3.6 boards per game last season.

How it'll all shake out: Jan Van Breda Kolff made one NCAA Tournament and won 55.9 percent of his games in six seasons at Vanderbilt before leaving under pressure following the 1998-99 season. He was replaced by Kevin Stallings, who has made one NCAA Tournament and won 56.2 percent of his games through seven seasons. Clearly, those records don't look much different from one another. So Stallings probably needs to make the NCAA Tournament to keep fans pleased, and because the top of the SEC is so tough that's not the likely way for things to play out.

5. Georgia

Reasons to be excited: The Bulldogs return every relevant player outside of Younes Idrissi, who averaged only 6.5 points per game last season. Sundiata Gaines, Levi Stukes, Channing Toney and Mike Mercer provide Georgia with four talented perimeter players who combined to average 41.4 points per game in 2005-06.

Reasons to be depressed: For a team that's so perimeter oriented, the Bulldogs do not shoot the ball well from the outside, making just 34.0 percent of their 3-point attempts last season. Also, Takais Brown has been suspended indefinitely for academic reasons after originally being projected as a possible starter in the frontcourt.

How it'll all shake out: Dennis Felton inherited a mess at Georgia, but he's slowly building the program back to respectability. It's probably too ambitious to predict an NCAA Tournament. An NIT appearance seems more than reasonable.

6. South Carolina

Reasons to be excited: Tre' Kelley and Brandon Wallace return for the Gamecocks, otherwise known as the kings of the NIT. Looking even further ahead for optimism, Cincinnati's Devan Downey transferred into the program and should be eligible next season. Granted, that has nothing to do with this season. But it's still exciting.

Reasons to be depressed: Renaldo Balkman might have been booed upon being drafted by the Knicks, but the folks at South Carolina would love to have him back. Same goes for Tarence Kinsey. Both those players are in the NBA -- not good news for the Gamecocks.

How it'll all shake out: Dave Odom doesn't have the personnel to compete for an NCAA Tournament appearance. Alas, an NIT three-peat isn't likely, either.

West

1. LSU

Reasons to be excited: Glen "Big Baby" Davis is back, and he's seemingly in the best shape of his college career. He'll be joined by Tasmin Mitchell, Garrett Temple and most of the other players from last season's Final Four, plus talented, if reckless, point guard Tack Minor.

Reasons to be depressed: Tyrus Thomas was the surprise of college basketball last season, going from unheralded recruit to college phenom by averaging 12.3 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Now, he's a departed college phenom turned NBA lottery pick, and it's reasonable to believe LSU will miss him, as well as Darrel Mitchell, who averaged 16.8 points per game last season.

How it'll all shake out: Even down two starters, the Tigers still have plenty of talent thanks to the return of Minor and the addition of, among others, Marquette transfer Dameon Mason. They'll have their hands full in the SEC, but should evolve as a legitimate national title contender again.

2. Alabama

Reasons to be excited: Ronald Steele and Jermareo Davidson return, giving Alabama a pair of All-America candidates at point guard and center. When those positions are steady, it's tough to have a bad team.

Reasons to be depressed: There still isn't an experienced, proven, high-level shooter at Alabama. Alonzo Gee and Brandon Hollinger are the only players outside of Steele on the roster who made a 3-pointer last season, and they combined to make just 37 while shooting a mere 29.8 percent from behind the arc.

Poll Who will win the SEC?   13%  LSU     16%  Alabama     33%  Florida     7%  Arkansas     24%  Kentucky     8%  Tennessee     Total Votes: 5934

How it'll all shake out: I have previously written Alabama is a Final Four contender, and I'm not changing now. With Steele and Davidson -- plus the talented Richard Hendrix -- the Crimson Tide have more solid parts in place than all but a handful of teams in the nation.

3. Arkansas

Reasons to be excited: The group of newcomers is among the best in the SEC, led by junior college transfer Sonny Weems. He's a 6-foot-6 slasher, a guy who can score in bunches. And while Weems won't make anybody forget about Ronnie Brewer, he's more than an adequate replacement on the wing. Meanwhile, Gary Ervin, a transfer from Mississippi State, will take over the point guard duties. His SEC experience will prove valuable.

Reasons to be depressed: That Brewer guy I mentioned was pretty good, and his 18.4 points per game will be missed. Also gone is Jonathon Modica, who averaged 16.1 points per game last season.

How it'll all shake out: Arkansas is depending heavily on some newcomers, but they are newcomers with talent. Combine them with veterans Steven Hill, Vincent Hunter, Charles Thomas and Darian Townes, and the Hogs have the personnel to make a second consecutive NCAA Tournament under Stan Heath, whose win total has improved (nine, 12, 18, 22) in each of his first four seasons.

4. Mississippi State

Reasons to be excited: Jamont Gordon and Charles Rhodes are one of the better inside-outside combinations in the SEC. Combined, they averaged 27.4 points and 13.9 rebounds per game last season.

Reasons to be depressed: Though Gordon can be spectacular, he did have 13 more turnovers (142) than assists (129) last season. Dietric Slater, who started 19 games in 2005-06, is suspended for the first part of the season, which means MSU will start down two of its top four scorers from a season ago.

How it'll all shake out: The Bulldogs will be better than that 15-15 record last season. Still, the NIT is the likely destination.

5. Mississippi

Reasons to be excited: Andy Kennedy's return to his home state after a year of filling in for Bob Huggins at Cincinnati injected life into a program that had little of late. Having upperclassmen Dwayne Curtis and Bam Doyne to get through this transitional period is a decent gift from a previous staff that didn't leave much in the way of talent.

Reasons to be depressed: While Curtis is good and the team's leading scorer and rebounder from a season ago, he's not currently healthy. A stress fracture in his left foot has Curtis sidelined for an undetermined amount of time, and without him on the court the Rebels will have a difficult time competing in the SEC.

How it'll all shake out: For a school that botched the hiring of its football coach a few years back when it missed on Dennis Erickson before settling for YouTube.com star Ed Orgeron, Ole Miss hit a home run with the hiring of Kennedy. He's high-profile enough after all those national television appearances last season to intrigue recruits, and hip enough to relate to them once on campus. So while this season projects as the first year of a rebuilding project, the future seems promising at Ole Miss.

6. Auburn

Reasons to be excited: Jeff Lebo's rebuilding project at Auburn is under way, and those freshmen who played major minutes last season are now a year older. Former McDonald's All-American Korvotney Barber, a sophomore, is a talented individual with potential.

Reasons to be depressed: Auburn played its final exhibition against Auburn University at Montgomery. And lost. No joke, the final score was 69-64, and afterward Lebo acknowledged the shock. "We have a young and fragile group and this hurts our kids' confidence, but at least this game doesn't count against us," he said.

How it'll all shake out: Actually, the game does count against Auburn, at least in these predictions. I originally had Auburn fifth and Ole Miss sixth in this division, but one of my rules in doing these things is that a team that wins both its exhibitions must be ranked ahead of a team that lost to an NAIA member. So I switched the Tigers and Rebels, and Auburn had better get right before Friday's opener against Troy.