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LATE WITHDRAWALS: Hunter Mahan, Cameron Beckman, Steve Marino, Jesper Parnevik and Chris Couch, as of Wednesday at 11 a.m.
I swear, these guys are toying with me.
Almost half my picks -- Bernhard Langer, Adam Scott, Jose Maria Olazabal and Tom Lehman -- flirted with the top of the leaderboard during the Players Championship last weekend but couldn't quite get their hands on that pitiful piece of crystal the PGA Tour hands to the winner of their biggest tournament of the year.
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| Georgia native Stewart Cink is one of the few top players in this week's field. (Getty Images) |
I don't remember if he could putt back then, but his flat stick certainly slightly came around at Sawgrass after what has seemed like years of hibernation. I did pick him earlier this year at an event I can't remember (because my Excel picks file vanished), but of course I didn't have him last week. I mean, who in their right mind would select a guy who stood 131st in putts per GIR coming into last week? Not me, that's for sure.
While his putter didn't exactly carry him to victory last week, Garcia's ball striking certainly did. He was first in driving accuracy and in greens in regulation, a combination that will give you a chance to win every time. As much as I think he is a bit of a punk, I was glad he finally gave the media something other than his lack of putting skills to talk about.
In winning his title, Garcia needed a playoff to edge Paul Goydos, who put together his second straight top-25 and his first top-10 since he won the Sony Open last season. Nice to see you Paul -- the 206 people that picked you and I love your sense of humor -- but now go back to obscurity and stop making me look bad.
Also coming through with nice finishes at Sawgrass were Briny Baird, who continued to put together the best season in his career with a seventh top 25 (his best in a full year is nine top-25s); Stephen Ames, whose fifth place gave him eight made cuts in a row and three top-10s this season; and Dean Wilson, who now has back-to-back top-12s after missing six of his first 12 cuts.
With the 'fifth major' out of the way, the PGA Tour and Fantasy Golf come back down to earth this week with a bump at the AT&T Classic ...a Sugarloaf Mountain-sized bump.
You have only five guys in the world top 50, 15 guys in the top 100, and it will cost you $225,250 to pick 182nd-ranked John Mallinger. That's big chunk of change for a guy with no top-30s in his last five events. Honestly, the field is so bad that I would probably cost more than $75,000 if I somehow managed to wrangle my way in.
With only eight players eligible for my $75,001-$199,000 category, I'm going to tweak my selection categories a bit this week, but before we get to that, let's take a look at what it usually takes to succeed at TPC Sugarloaf.
Looking back at the last 10 years, I think the course conditions have really dictated what skills have been necessary to win this event. Rain has always been a factor, with two of Phil Mickelson's three victories coming in shortened versions. This year, however, it has been very dry in the area and the course is playing very hard and firm. There is some precipitation scheduled for Thursday and early Friday this week, but the bone-dry course will soak that up and continue to level out the field with the shorter hitters getting some nice help with bounces down the fairways.
One thing that did stand out was that the par-4s at Sugarloaf can be had, with the last five winners of 72-hole events finishing 7 under or better on them, including Mickelson’s ridiculous 17 under in 2006. Of course, putting and greens in regulation will be keys as always.
These Guys Are (Really) Good
Retief Goosen ($293,500) -- The Goose has a win, a T3, a T4 and a T22 in his last four trips to Sugarloaf and, along with Stewart Cink, is a class ahead of everyone else in this field. Three double bogeys at the Players Championship really squashed his chances of a top 25 and he isn't playing superb golf right now, but he's just too talented to ignore.
Stewart Cink ($300,000)-- While Cink doesn't have a top 10 in his last three trips to this event, he has six in his previous seven tries. Like Goosen, a lot of folks are going to pick him this week because of the weak field, but unless you need a huge boost up the standings, you really shouldn't leave him off your lineup. In 11 events this year, he has six top-10s and is eighth in par-4 performance. Enough said.
Briny Baird ($209,000) -- Baird is off to the best start to a season in his career and has back-to-back top-10s and four straight top-20s in this event. Ninth in par-4 performance on tour, Baird's lack of length won't hurt him too much this week. If he can get the putter going, he should be a serious contender.
These Guys Are (Pretty) Good
Ryuji Imada ($274,000) -- Imada has owned this event recently with a T2, T10 and T15 in his last three trips, however he's not playing very well right now. He has missed four of his last five cuts and hasn't shot a round in the 60s since the WGC-CA Championship back in March. His ball striking has been brutal this season, but his putter has saved him all year. If he can somehow find fairways and greens, watch out.
Ben Crane ($222,000) -- Crane is eighth in scoring average this season and his ball striking is amazingly better this year (19th) than it was in 2007 (196th). The scary thing is that his putter really hasn't got hot yet. He hasn’t played in this event since 2004, but he finished T6 that year and won in 2003. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him lift the trophy this Sunday.
Dean Wilson ($215,500) -- Wilson is playing some nice golf in May with back-to-back top-12s and now has four top-25s in his last five events. He showed flashes of his talent last season with four top-10s and nine top-25s, but just didn't play consistently enough. He has a T15 in his two trips to this event, so he does know how to make his way around this course.
These Guys Are (Not Very) Good (but I'm picking 'em anyway)
Robert Damron ($75,000) -- Damron is splitting time on the PGA and Nationwide Tours this season, and already has a victory and five total top-35s in 2008. He won the Athens Regional Foundation Classic back in April, so he already has some success in the state of Georgia this season. The only worrying thing is that he withdrew from the South Georgia Classic earlier this month with a back injury, but hopefully he just slept wrong or something and will be close to 100 percent for this week.
Gavin Coles ($75,000) -- The Angry Ant hasn't played much in the States this season, but he won one of his two Nationwide Tour starts and had a T15 in his last PGA Tour start, in Puerto Rico. He also finished T14 at Sugarloaf last year.
Tom Byrum ($75,000) -- Might as well finish off the part-time PGA Tour guys hat trick here with the leading putter on the Nationwide Tour. He has two top-15s in his four starts on the lesser tour this season, but has only made one of four cuts on the main tour. He can score on occasion, but you have to think a top-25 is as far as he can go this week.
My Golf Challenge Lineup
Cink, $300,000; Goosen, $293,500; Crane, $222,000; Coles, $75,000; Nick Flanagan, $75,000. Total -- $965,500.
Last Week
Scott (T54) $21,280; Padraig Harrington (MC) $0; Goosen, $22,863 (T51); Steve Flesch (MC), $0; Olazabal (T54) $21,280. Total -- $65,423 (28,420th, ouch!). Segment Two -- $2,093,562 (13,520th). Overall -- 10,145,160 (5,578th).
Congrats to 'BananaBall', whose lineup of Garcia (won), Goydos (second), Els (T6), Mickelson (T21) and Lucas Glover (MC) was good enough for $3,388,562 and win over ‘HessHackers2008’ and ‘short putters’ by virtue of entering his or her lineup first.
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