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This is stupid


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This is stupid
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Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 17, 2006

March 18, 2008 11:19 am
Do you really think the selection committee would intentionally set 2 non BCS teams against each other?  Why do a lot of people watch?  Because they like to see VCU beat Duke, or George Mason beat...well...almost everyone.  Intentionally doing this would be bad business.  Alternatively, there's a very good chance (like 100%) that one team from each of these matchups will make the round of 32. 

Another thing.  These "Cinderella" non-BCS teams rarely get the top 4 seeds, and usually are good enough to avoid the bottom 4 seeds.  This leaves 4 matchups (5/12, 6/11, 7/10, and 8/9) therefore 16 games.  Let's break these games down.

BCS vs. BCS - 7 games
BCS vs. non-BCS - 5 games
non-BCS vs. non-BCS - 4 games

with 13 of the 32 teams being "non-BCS", this scenario is more than possible, statistically

This is stupid
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Reputation:28
Level:Rookie
Since:Mar 11, 2008

March 18, 2008 2:47 pm

I'm a statistics grad and ran the analysis.  Sorry the this is a statistical anomally.  The chances of this happening at random are small enough to be considered statistically significant.


This is stupid
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Reputation:97
Level:Superstar
Since:Aug 17, 2006

March 19, 2008 10:05 pm
vmack, i believe you.  i'm actually sucking in my statistics class right now, so i know i'm no expert, but i would like to see the numbers out of curiosity.  is this hypergeometric, or what?  like i said, according to my grades i suck at statistics, but applied (to sports) statistics really interest me.