Louisville's chances vs. UNC?

Opinions?  How 'bout facts?

1)  Rankings:  UNC is the #1 team in the country and the #1 overall seed.  UL is the #13 team in the counry and the #13 overall seed.  Advantage:  UNC

2)  Character (or maybe I should say Caracter):  UNC has the Sporting News' POY in Tyler Hansborough.  One of UL's best player breaks curfew the night after signing a contract with the team that included no curfew violations (also immediately after his team stuck up for him).  Advantage:  UNC

3)  Coaches:  Hall of Famers, Williams vs. Pitino, both NCAA tourney winners.  It doesn't get any better than that, coaching-wise.  Advantage:  Even

4)  Momentum:  UNC has won 14 straight including blowouts against uptempo Ark and slow-down WaSt. in their last 2.  UL has won 3 of their last 5 with blow outs against OK and UT in their last 2).  Advantage:  UNC

Obviously, UL has the firepower, balance, and lack of weaknesses to beat UNC, but UNC should have enough firepower and defense themselves to win this one.

I think it will be a close game (hopefully).  The Cards play well against teams built like UNC.  I have not seen another team play as aggressive defense like the Cards do and to pull it off with causing the opponent to play hurry up, or force turnovers.  If Louisville shoots like they have been, plays D like they have been, and they controls the ball (stops turning the ball over on unforced errors), they have a very good chance to end up in the final four. 

We will have to talk smack in the mean time and wait for the game on Saturday to reveal all! 

I would agree with the "crowd" that UNC should win the matchup.  Of course the key word is should.  Funny things happen in the tourny, which is why I picked UL as an upset in the Elite 8 as well.  If we can say that UNC (or any team) is certain to win then why play?

Louisville has talent to beat the Tar Heels, certainly, if they can keep their turnovers to a minimum.  UNC has shown a lack of defense in some games that could bite them.  It is rare that all #1 seeds make the final four, and I thought when filling out my bracket that this matchup (and the South Regional) had the highest probability for the #1s to go down.

Of course, my Bruins are making mountains out of mole-hills right now... so that may change!

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a Louisville  win based on:

1) Coaching - Pitino is a better big game coach.  Roy has more of a reputation for losing the big games, especially when he's favored.  Pitino relishes the underdog role.

2) Depth - While I will agree that UNC is ultra-talented, a quick look at their roster shows a plethora of Guards, Forwards, and Guard/Forwards.  They don't get nearly enough production out of anyone with size other than Tyler Hansbrough.  I'm not sure if Hansbrough has faced a front line like Louisville's, much less a classic center like Padgett who can also run the floor.  If Hansbrough has to sit for any time at all, than Louisville will have a HUGE advantage. 

3) Opponents Field Goal Percentage and Points Allowed - These stats were NEVER mentioned  in any preview for  the UofL/TN game, but they have been the deciding factor in every upset we have pulled this year.  We held Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee well below their averages in these categories.  I doubt  UNC has faced a defense like ours this year, where EVERY single shot will be  challenged.

4) Momentum - Even though UNC is a number 1 seed, everyone's slate is clean when the tournament starts, where both teams are 3-0.  Louisville has played a much more difficult slate thus far in the tournament, winning big each game, and gaining confidence by demolishing a team that many thought was the top 2 seed, and could have been a one seed.  Louisville appears to be getting better each game, while UNC has been beating lesser teams.

I tried to be as objective as possible.  Good luck to UNC, and Go Cards!!!