BY ISRAEL GUTIERREZ
The Marlins will make it official Saturday, announcing their long-term commitment to Hanley Ramirez at a news conference at the site of their future home.
Unofficially, word leaked last week that the Marlins finally would take the plunge and lock up their own A-Rod-to-be. With it came an unprecedented sense of excitement about a franchise that has previously believed in commitment about as strongly as TV's Scott Baio.
It begged the question: Who's next?
The first player who comes to mind is the compact second baseman with the Popeye forearms and the Superman swing.
Dan Uggla has thrust himself even further into the forefront lately, hitting the spinach out of the ball with a power display that has him hanging with the big boys on baseball's power listings.
So why not secure Uggla to a long-term deal? Let him join the growing group of players with fewer than three years experience who are raking in the bucks. Uggla has certainly produced more at a major-league plate than Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki or Evan Longoria.
In fact, Daniel Cooley Uggla (that's right, his middle name is Cooley) is rivaling Chase Utley as the best offensive second baseman in the game, and he is outslugging everyone in baseball except Utley, Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones. Projections during a hot streak are somewhat distorted, but Uggla is on pace to have a 50-home run, 120-RBI season.
So draw up the papers, right? If the Marlins are in the business of doing long-term business, then little Dan -- and his enormous bat -- should be next in line.
Not really. At least, it is very much debatable.
LONG-TERM VALUE?
There are some question marks regarding Uggla's long-term value -- questions pertinent to a franchise that strictly takes calculated risks.
The primary knock against Uggla is his age. He might be in his third season, but the Diamondbacks delayed his career enough that he's playing his third season as a 28-year-old.
Offensively, baseball players tend to peak between 27 and 32. That would give Uggla just enough time to get to the Marlins' new stadium before he starts what you would assume to be an inevitable decline.
''No question he's peaking right now,'' said Keith Law of ESPN's Scouts Inc., formerly of Baseball Prospectus and the Toronto Blue Jays' front office. ``His upside is now.''
So committing to Uggla past two or three years would come with the possibility that he would be on the down side of his career at the back end of the deal.
By comparison, a 24-year-old Ramirez would be in the prime of his career in the final year of his contract.
Uggla, as you would imagine, sees the matter differently.
''I take care of myself, I take care of my body, so there's no reason to say that I wouldn't keep getting better,'' Uggla said.
Jeff Kent MODEL
There is a model Uggla could follow. Jeff Kent is considered the prototype offensive second baseman.
Kent didn't have his first 500-at-bat season until he was 29, yet he was hitting 20-plus home runs and driving in 100-plus runs as a 37-year-old. Now 40, Kent still ranks among the more feared run producers in the league.
But don't count on the Marlins committing to Uggla on the chance he's another Kent.
It is difficult to project just how long a player can extend his career, but there are signs.
''Players that age best are players who have young player skills,'' Law said. ``They're athletic, fast, they play difficult positions and play them well.''
The players that don't, Law said, have ''old-man skills,'' borrowing a phrase from baseball guru Bill James. They hit for power but not great average. They take walks. They play average defense, at best.
So far, Uggla tends to fit the latter category better.
It is not to say Uggla won't benefit from his impressive feats of strength the past few years. It just might not be with the Marlins.
ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE
Uggla is eligible for arbitration after this season. And the arbitration process tends to benefit players with the hefty, obvious numbers.
So a 40-home run, 100-RBI season for the Marlin could mean a whale of a payday.
Unless the Marlins are willing to commit future dollars to Uggla now, it means the likeliest scenario would be the team trading him and allowing some other franchise to gamble on just how long he can keep up this pace.
Maybe Uggla's not next. Not here, anyway. But he's very much right now.
''I've played with some pretty good second basemen in my time, [Craig] Biggio and Ryan Sandberg and Orlando Hudson,'' Luis Gonzalez said. ``If he can stay healthy . . . he's going to put up some incredible numbers.
``The way he has been going now, he's definitely worth his weight in gold around here.''
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