With the NBA draft now come and gone, fans who were disappointed by their team's picks (or lack thereof) can now look forward to Tuesday, July 1, for their team to try to add pieces to the puzzle.
Since we wrote our last free-agent update in February, the free-agent market has shifted considerably. A number of NBA veterans who had the option of opting out of their contracts chose not to, leaving a very weak crop of unrestricted free agents. Combine that with only a handful of teams with potential cap room and you have what could be a pretty lackluster summer.
Last summer, a large group of free agents -- restricted and unrestricted -- faced the reality of the NBA's new frugality, which has created practically a hard salary cap. Only a few players came away with big deals, and only a handful found anything near the money that free agents typically get on the open market.
The news doesn't get much better for the free-agent class of 2008. Given our current projections, only three teams -- the Memphis Grizzlies, the Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Clippers -- will have enough money under the cap to spend on them, assuming a $59 million salary cap this summer.
The Grizzlies got under the cap by trading away Pau Gasol for expiring contracts at the trade deadline. But Memphis GM Chris Wallace has been sending signals that the team might not spend its estimated $15 million in cap room this summer. The Grizzlies are hinting that they will wait until the summer of 2009, when they have more cap room.
The Sixers could potentially have around $20 million in cap space, if they were willing to waive both Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams to reach that figure. If they decide to keep Iguodala and Williams, both restricted free agents, it looks as though the Sixers will have around $12.4 million in cap space.
The Clippers are the other team that could have space if they do not re-sign unrestricted free agent Corey Maggette. Maggette exercised his early termination option in his contract, leaving the Clippers about $10 million under the cap if they choose not to re-sign him.
A few other teams -- the Wizards, Bobcats, Sonics and Bulls -- could conceivably get some cap room, but for it to happen they'd have to let their major free agents walk.
The Wizards could have roughly $15 million if Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison were to sign somewhere else.
The Bobcats would have roughly $12 million if Emeka Okafor were to leave.
The Sonics will have room if they decide to let Robert Swift walk. If Swift is off the books, they could have around $7.5 million to spend.
But most of the above scenarios seem unlikely.
To make matters worse, with 11 teams in the luxury-tax range -- and potentially more with high draft picks coming -- it appears there will be relatively midlevel slots open as well.
So read this wish list of summer free agents with a heavy heart, fans. You may have your eyes set on a star, but unless your team has a ton of cap room or orchestrates a sign-and-trade, it's going to be a blue summer.
Group I: Unrestricted free agents
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1. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards: Arenas has turned himself into a max player over the past few years and, despite recent knee troubles, will likely cash in on his newfound celebrity status. While he continues to maintain publicly that his first choice is to re-sign with Washington, it's possible that, given his eccentricity, he could change his mind.
The biggest issue for Arenas is the same one that plagues all the free agents: Who else has the money to pay him? I can't see the 76ers or Grizzlies spending the cash. The Clippers would have interest, but Arenas already spurned them once.
2. Corey Maggette, Clippers: Maggette has been on the trading block for years and appears eager to bolt the Clippers. He's making $7 million next season and should be due a raise.
Teams will be out in force trying to get him, but most will have only the midlevel exception to offer -- which would mean he'd be taking a pay cut. A sign-and-trade is the most likely option, with the Phoenix Suns looking like the team most interested in him. They could offer a swap of Leandro Barbosa that may interest L.A.
3. Antawn Jamison, Wizards: Jamison is still putting up big scoring and rebounding numbers at the age of 32. He even made a surprise appearance at the All-Star Game this past season. Washington will likely try to lock him up, and should have the best shot to do so.
With teams capped out, which team is going to spend all of its money on a 32-year-old?
4. DeSagana Diop, Nets: He's only 25, but five points and five boards are about all you're going to get from him. Still, he's big and he plays good defense … meaning some team will blow its midlevel exception on him. I think Dallas is the front-runner to give him a ridiculous deal.
5. Beno Udrih, Kings: The Kings were impressed enough with his play that they felt no remorse in letting Mike Bibby go. But will they be able to keep him? As the only decent unrestricted point guard on the market, Udrih is drawing a lot of interest. Expect him to get multiple offers for the full midlevel from a number of teams desperate for a point guard. I'd put the Clippers at the top of the list.
6. Kurt Thomas, Spurs: He's 35 years old, but still tough enough to help just about any title contender. The Spurs got him in a steal of a deal at the trade deadline. Look for them to try to lock him up with a three-year deal this summer.
7. James Posey, Celtics: Posey helped himself with a strong performance against the Lakers in the Finals. He's another player who should get a three- to four-year midlevel deal somewhere.
8. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors: No one is sure why the Warriors didn't play Pietrus more. He's one of the most athletic defenders in the league and he's a solid 3-point shooter. Some team will pick him up and try to use him in a Bruce Bowen-type role.
9. Ricky Davis, Heat: The talented but troubled swingman hasn't helped his cause in his second tour with Miami. Pat Riley thought, after dumping him the first time, that Davis finally had the maturity to play for him. But Riley is clearly reassessing the situation. Davis looks like a midlevel-or-below type of player. I doubt he returns to the Heat.
10. Kwame Brown, Grizzlies: The former No. 1 pick has run out of excuses. Yes, he's huge, athletic and only 25 years old. But after seven years in the league, he's yet to prove that he's anything more than a backup. Someone will pay him something, but no one is expecting much.
Other notables: Shaun Livingston, Clippers; Brent Barry, Spurs; Bostjan Nachbar, Nets; Carlos Arroyo, Magic; Chris Duhon, Bulls; Eduardo Najera, Nuggets; Matt Barnes, Warriors; Alonzo Mourning, Heat; Gerald Green, Rockets; Patrick O'Bryant, Warriors; Jason Williams, Heat; Juwan Howard, Mavs; Jarvis Hayes, Pistons; Robert Horry, Spurs; James Jones, Blazers; Michael Finley, Spurs; Jannero Pargo, Hornets; Damon Stoudamire, Spurs; Sam Cassell, Celtics; Jamaal Magloire, Nets; Kareem Rush, Pacers; Gordan Giricek, Suns; Michael Doleac, Timberwolves; Francisco Elson, Sonics; Keyon Dooling, Magic; Quinton Ross, Clippers; Antoine Wright, Mavericks; Fred Jones, Knicks; Juan Dixon, Pistons; Maurice Evans, Magic; Primoz Brezec, Raptors; Anthony Johnson, Kings; Tyronn Lue, Kings; Theo Ratliff, Pistons; Adonal Foyle, Magic; Sebastian Telfair, Timberwolves; Kirk Snyder, Timberwolves.
Group II: Restricted free agents
Only six first-round draft picks from the 2004 draft were signed to extensions last fall. That means there will be some serious young talent available this summer. These players' restricted status still makes it likely they'll stay with their current teams, but at least they'll be in play:
1. Andre Iguodala, Sixers: Iguodala's decision to turn down a $57 million deal last summer is tough to justify. At the time, the Sixers appeared to be the only team with significant cap room; I'm not sure where he thought his next paycheck would come from. He had a great regular season, but a woeful postseason has put his stock back in check. He's coveted by the Grizzlies, but the chances of them prying him away from Philly look very slim.
2. Josh Smith, Hawks: On talent and potential, Smith should be on top of this list. He's a freakish athlete who can score, rebound and block shots. What holds him back is a questionable attitude. Nonetheless it appears the Hawks have to re-sign him.
Given the Hawks' ownership woes, Smith is one of the few restricted free agents a team with cap space may try to pluck away -- the same way the Hawks did with Joe Johnson a few years ago. I could see the Sixers making a run at him.
3. Emeka Okafor, Bobcats: Okafor turned down $13 million per season to hit free agency this summer. He's not the best player on this list, but he's the best young center on the market. Still, there's no guarantee he'll get more money from another team. I'm sure the Grizzlies will be interested, but they know the Bobcats will match. I don't see him going anywhere, but a sign-and-trade isn't out of the question here if the negotiations go on too long.
4. Jose Calderon, Raptors: Calderon played at an All-Star level this past season. When T
