Chargers are OVER-RATED!!!!

If any of you have read some of my other posts, you know that I don't think the Chargers are one of the elite teams.  I believe they are solid, but merely average, and have given many reasons why.  I also believe the Chiefs will bounce back considerably this year, and thus, will compete for the division.

Whatever your opinion of the Chargers, they did very little to improve themselves this year, and lost some imprortant talent.

Losses:

• Marlon McCree, a 16-game starter at safety.  He is 31 and they had Weddle waiting in the wings, so I understand letting him go.  However, they have no proven depth behind those two.
• Drayton Florence, another starter for 10 games, until they put Cromartie in the starting lineup.  Florence then moved to nickel.  Cason will play nickel, but again, there is no proven depth behind these three.
• Stephen Cooper, their leading tackler last season is suspended for 4 games.
• Shane Olivea, a 10-game starter at right tackle, replaced by Jerome Clary.  Olivea wasn't getting the job done, and Clary isn't the answer.  I doubt Corey Clark taken in the 7th round is the answer either.
• Michael Turner.  Reliable, powerful backup to LT, who many surmise would be a starter on most other teams.  Replaced with a situational short-yardage back who will never be a full-time starter.

Of their draft picks this year, only one will be a starter - and that only if you count the nickel corner.  If you don't, none of these players will start this season except due to injury.

Here is a final stat I invite you all to ponder.  Of the 12 play-off teams last year, ONLY ONE failed to rank in the top-ten in the league in either offense or defense.  I will give you one guess who that team was.

In fact, 7 of the 12 teams finished in the top five in either offense or defense (NE and IND finished top-5 in both offense and defense),

Of those remaining 5, all but one finished at least top ten in either offense or defense.

In case you are having a hard time figuring it out, the ONLY play-off team last season that didn't at least finish in the top ten in either offense or defense was..... yep, you guessed it, San Diego.  So why did they make the playoffs?  As I have stated before, it was their turnover margin.  They finished with the highest in the league last year (and 2nd highest in NFL recorded history) with a +24 TO margin.

I can appreciate your research here and while I despise the Chargers as much as any Chiefs fan, I just have to ask the obvious question here.

How can you not give credit to their defense for creating so many turn overs?

Is their offense over-rated? Sure, I'll agree with you on that. They didn't put up the stats to prove they are one of the league's elites. Overall defense, same thing. The stats show they aren't in the elite class, but the one stat that matters is the one they did put up. Wins. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what your stat sheet says. It's the scoreboard that counts.

Are the Giants a better team than the Patriots? I don't think so, but at the end of the day, the scoreboard said they were.

The Chargers did pretty much the same thing. They found ways to win. Elite team? Statistically no. Record, yes.

I hate the Chargers as much as the next guy, but I will have to disagree with saying they aren't one of the elite teams.  I think that the stats don't always show how good a team really is. 1st off, the Chargers got off to a really slow start.  They had a new head coach/system and it takes time to adjust.  I didn't take the time to look but I think that if you just look at the last 12 games of the season the Chargers would be in the top 10 on either defense or offense.  2nd their schedule was brutal. N.E. away, G.B. away, Minn. away, Jacksonville away, Tenn. away,  and Ind. at home.

Actually as I write this I'm starting to change my mind about the Chargers.  Of all the games I just listed they only beat Tenn. away (in overtime, and easily the worst team on the list) and Ind. at home (a game in which Payton throws 5 ints. and they only win because of a missed chip shot field goal).  The rest of the teams they beat were weak (lets face it the AFC Wests was no power house division last year)

The Chargers are NOT one of the elite teams, not even close.

I don't give them credit for "forcing" turnovers because that is largely a crap-shoot, as far as defense anyways.  On offense it has a little more to do with the quarterback's decision-making.  Forcing turnovers can be coached and practiced, just as quarterbacks can be coached to not make mistakes and runningbacks to hold on to the ball.  And this can make some difference.  Back in the 90s, the Chiefs routinely were in the top half of the league in turnover margin because Marty constantly preached it.  However, actual results have mostly to do with luck, or if you will excuse the pun, how the ball bounces.

Case in point:  The Chargers defense forced 27 fumbles last season and recovered 18 of them, or 67%.  The Chiefs forced 21 fumbles, but only recovered 38%, or 8 or them.  Luck is the only reason they recovered 10 more than the Chiefs did.  If the Chiefs recovered the same percentage as the Charges, they would have recovered 14, making a difference of only 4, rather than 10.

The Chargers had 30 interceptions vs. the Chiefs 14.  There is no doubt that San Diego had better corner and nickel back talent than the Chiefs last year.  We already knew that.  However Cromartie was responsible for 10 of those 30.  Seven of those ten came in six of the seven starts he made at the end of the season, including three against Indy in his first start.  I am not going to knock the guy - he is good.  But don't expect a repeat performance this year.  No one knew the guy last year and I doubt Manning throws six picks in a game again this season, even if he has several of his offensive starters out with injury.  Teams will be aware of him this year, and will have last season's tapes to prepare for him.

On offense, there was a similar situation regarding fumbles.  San Diego fumbled 17 times last season, but lost only 8, or 47% of them.  The Chiefs fumbled 22 times, but lost 59%, or 13 of them.  Once again, this is luck.  If the Chiefs had lost the same percentage of fumbles as the Chargers, they would only have lost 10 - just two more than the Chargers, rather than five more.

The Chargers threw 16 interceptions last season, of which Rivers was responsible for 15 of them, or one every 30.7 pass attempts.  Although KC threw 20 total picks, Croyle was only responsible for 6 of them, or one every 37.3 attempts, which indicates better decision-making than Rivers, especially since Rivers had LT to lean on, while Croyle was without LJ for all of his starts.  Croyle was even better than Huard in this respect, as Damon had 13 picks, or one every 25.5 attempts - and Huard had LJ to lean on for most, if not all, of his starts. 

I am going off on a little bit of a tangent, but Croyle also avoided sacks last season better than Huard.  Of the 55 sacks the Chiefs surrenderred last season, Croyle only took 17 of them, or one every 13.2 pass attempts.  Huard took 36 of the sacks, or one every 9.2 pass attempts.

I guess my point is that don't give the Chargers too much credit for their turnover margin of +24.  If they had lost fumbles at the same rate the Chiefs did on offense, and if they had recovered fumbles on defense at the same rate the Chiefs did, their turnover margin would only have been +14, or ten less net turnovers on the season.  I am sure that would have cost them at least two or three games.  That would have made them an 8 or 9 win team.  Not elite.  Remember, they only ranked 20th in the league on offense last season.  That is not elite, but bordering on being in the bottom third.  The defense ranked 14th in the league, and was 10 yards a game from being in the bottom half of the league on defense as well.