Everybody -- no matter how vile, apathetic or socially reprehensible -- has one law that they, without exception, obey.
They all drive within the painted lines on the road.
Think about it. When placed behind the wheel of a car, a man has total control over his maneuvering. He can turn left or right on impulse. He can drive a straight line from Chicago to Des Moines. He can even spin in circles if he wants.
But he doesn't. He drives forward, turning only as the road turns, seemingly oblivious to the unparalleled freedom at his fingertips.
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Don't overlook a guy like Gary Sheffield in H2H formats.
(US Presswire)
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It compares to that other universally obeyed law -- the one that presents the same do-or-die consequences, but strictly to Fantasy owners. Draft within the default rankings on your cheat sheet. Like the lines on the road, they protect you. They help maintain order. Yeah, you might break them by a player or two here and there, swerving to avoid that renegade hubcap that happened to settle within your lane, but you more or less stick to the list.
Miguel Tejada goes before
Carlos Guillen. It's the law.
But it doesn't have to be that way. It shouldn't always be that way -- not when the default rankings so often apply to a league format other than your own. And if you don't play in a standard 5X5 Rotisserie league -- guess what -- the default rankings don't apply.
In our most recent head-to-head mock draft, that unquestioned stay-inside-the-lines mentality reared its ugly head on more than one occasion, often in defiance of the established scoring structure. Drafting in a league that uses strikeouts and ignores percentages like batting average while using rankings designed for a league that doesn't makes for a stewpot of illogical picks ripe for placing over a fire.
For example, Ryan Howard went in the first round, second overall among first basemen -- just where he belongs, according to our rankings. For a perennial 50-home run threat, the pick would go unquestioned in standard Rotisserie formats. Unfortunately, Howard's also a perennial 200-strikeout threat, which, in this format, significantly impairs his value. Meanwhile, fellow 50-home run threat Prince Fielder -- he of the 121 strikeouts in 2007 -- went in the second round, a full six picks later. Just how much of an impact can Howard's extra strikeouts make in Fantasy? Well, in 2007, according to this Fantasy format, Fielder outscored Howard by a full 88 points, 442-354.
And no doubt, other statistics played a part in that 88-point variance. But a simple comparison of Howard's 199-to-107 strikeout-to-walk ratio to Fielder's 121-to-90 tells us that Fielder topped Howard by 61 points based on walks and strikeouts alone.
And those 61 points add up over the course of a draft.
Gary Sheffield also fits the mold of a player whose draft position (Round 9) undermines his value in this particular format. People see his .265 batting average and assume he'll repeat it, which, in a standard Rotisserie league, wouldn't do them much good. But because he walks more often than he strikes out, his 2.5 Fantasy points per game in this format last year ranked higher than that of Manny Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki, Alex Rios and Curtis Granderson -- all players drafted ahead of him. The argument over whether or not a tricky shoulder led to his decline in batting average doesn't even enter the equation.
Am I suggesting you draft Sheffield over Sizemore? Of course not. Matters of age and upside rightfully play a role in the rankings. But if you let someone else grab Sizemore while you wait five or six rounds to grab Sheffield, you'll probably fare better in the standings.
In these formats, ones that count walks and strikeouts, Fantasy owners repeatedly overlook the impact of -- you guessed it -- walks and strikeouts. They overlook that Hideki Matsui (Round 10), despite missing time with a hamstring injury, finished with more total points than Ichiro, Adam Dunn and Sizemore -- to name a few -- or that Todd Helton (Round 11), in spite of his wimpy 17 home runs, ranked third among all first basemen. Both Matsui and Helton finished as high as they did because of walks and strikeouts.
And those owners overlook those particular statistics even though they remain more consistent than any other. A player's batting average or home run total rises and falls from year to year, but his propensity to walk or strikeout remains more or less intact.
Take Chipper Jones. From his .248 average in 2004 to his .337 mark in 2007, he kept his strikeout-to-walk ratio right at one-to-one. The achievement helped him average 3.2 Fantasy points per game in this format last year, ranking him second in all of baseball to Alex Rodriguez.
Yeah, he missed some games due to injury, as always, and he had a particularly good season at age 35, but his points in this format still make him more worthy of a pick in Round 6 than Miguel Cabrera (2.6 ppg) in Round 2 or Garrett Atkins (2.4 ppg) in Round 4.
And plenty of other examples stand out. Brian McCann over Russell Martin doesn't make much sense, given the scoring structure. Neither does Dan Uggla going before Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler or -- heck -- even Dustin Pedroia. And Carlos Delgado, with his declining power, can take his 118-to-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio out to pasture with him as far as 10-team head-to-head leagues go. Even in Round 10, he went way too early.
How do I know? I studied the league's scoring structure. I gauged how Delgado's value changed because of it, and I adjusted my own personal rankings accordingly.
So break free from the default rankings. Steer clear of the guiding lines painted down the middle of the road. Venture off course and go smashing through a decorative fountain somewhere. You might just find yourself having more fun than that guy who kept his hands at 10 and 2 and drafted Kenji Johjima in the ninth round.
Here's some players who slipped through the cracks in our draft. Don't let them do the same in yours.
Carlos Pena (Round 11): The guy hit 46 homers in 148 games last year. I realize he probably played over his head, but Round 11?
Francisco Liriano (Round 12): He pitched better than Johan Santana as a rookie, and he'll have had 15 months of recovery from Tommy John surgery by the time the season starts. That'll do.
Corey Hart (Round 15): For a 20-20 player who didn't crack the lineup regularly until June last year, he should get drafted higher than a fourth outfielder.
Randy Johnson (Round 16): The 44-year-old still struck out well over a batter per inning in his abbreviated 2007. In a league with reserve slots, he should serve as no less than a No. 4 SP.
Rafael Furcal (Round 17): He had a down year power-wise last year, which hurts his Fantasy stock going into this year, but if you can wait until Round 17 to draft a starting-caliber shortstop, you've done yourself a serious favor at some other position.
Rickie Weeks (Round 17): He showed signs of real progress after his brief demotion in August. For a backup second baseman, you might as well bank on a breakout for the potential 30-30 man.
You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Mock Drafts in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
