Players fall in drafts for a variety of reasons.
No matter the league format or the scoring structure, a group of suspects emerges every year that people just don't seem to want. "They come with too much risk," they say, before biting and clawing for every Kevin Youkilis, Andruw Jones and Mark Buehrle of the world.
But at some point during a draft, that risk becomes moot, the potential reward outweighing it. And when that happens, you have to abandon assured mediocrity in favor of a boom-or-bust approach if you have any hope of one-upping your competition.
Of all the risk factors that cause a player's value to plummet, injuries scare away Fantasy owners the fastest. Nobody wants to end up with a hole in his lineup -- especially one any follower of injury trends could have predicted. But if you approach the injury-risk sleepers just right, taking them at just the right time and with just the right supporting cast, you shouldn't have too much trouble filling whatever holes they create.
Along that line of thought, let me emphasize that these players are sleepers. If you reach for them too early, their level of risk outweighs their potential reward, leaving your Fantasy team vulnerable to disaster.
To help guide you, I've placed in parentheses where you can expect to draft the following players in standard 10- or 12-team mixed leagues. If someone wants to draft them earlier, let them. In fact, they're probably doing you a favor. You only want to go boom-or-bust late, well after you've built a solidified core.
With that, I give you some of the more notable injury-risk sleepers for Draft Day 2008.
Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota (middle rounds)
This kid generated so much buzz as a rookie that I halfway expected him to enter 2008 overvalued, drafted among the likes of John Lackey and Erik Bedard.
So far, not so.
Instead, he's going off the board around the same time as Javier Vazquez and A.J. Burnett -- after that second tier of Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang and company -- which I consider a perfectly acceptable time to gamble on the "reward" end of risk/reward. I still don't think any of us can quite wrap our heads around what exactly Liriano accomplished in 2006, when he posted a 2.16 ERA and 1.000 WHIP, striking out over a batter per inning as a rookie -- as a rookie. He could easily rank as the best pitcher in Fantasy Baseball by season's end.
Sure, he comes off a serious elbow operation -- the highly successful Tommy John surgery -- and pitchers usually need some time to get back up to speed after the ordeal. But so many of them try to make an on-the-job recovery, taking the mound again only a year after the surgery. Liriano has had more like a year and a half to recover, making him full-go for the start of the season. If you can get him as a No. 3 SP on your staff, you have to like your chances of winning a few pitching categories.
Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh (middle-to-late rounds)
Bay appeared one of the high-risers in the world of Fantasy during his first three years in the majors, emerging as a .300-35-100-100-15 threat even for a poor Pirates team. But all that changed in 2007 as, coming off knee surgery, he couldn't quite shake the lingering pain that followed.
An offseason of rest surely did him good, but Fantasy owners seem unwilling to trust him, drafting him in the range of Raul Ibanez and Jermaine Dye. Surely, a guy once projected for the second round -- ahead of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, among others -- deserves better. Even during his down year, he managed 21 home runs.
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Gary Sheffield's numbers before and after his shoulder injury last year are telling.
(US Presswire)
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Gary Sheffield, DH, Detroit (middle-to-late rounds) In my time here at CBSSports.com, I've come to a painful realization: Nobody likes Sheffield but me. I understand the drawbacks. He turned 39 in the offseason, I know. But I think maybe people look at his .265 batting average last year and attribute it to age. Do they forget that one fateful day in late July when Sheffield, getting a rare start in right field, collided with second baseman Placido Polanco on a pop fly, injuring his shoulder? Do they forget how dramatically it altered his season? Through July 21 -- the day of the incident -- Sheffield had a .306 average with 23 home runs in 343 at-bats. Afterward, he hit .171 with two home runs in 151 at-bats. You call that a coincidence -- honestly?
So Sheffield had shoulder surgery in the offseason, which brings with it a whole new measure of concern for a power hitter. But something about Sheffield's furious bat waggle, model work ethic and insane drive to compete leads me to believe he'll pack plenty of wallop in 2007. Project his stats from before the incident last year, and he could have easily finished at .300 with 35 home runs. Travis Hafner lite, anyone?
Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit (middle-to-late rounds)
From his 6-19 rookie season in 2003 through the first half of 2007, Bonderman only got better and better for the Tigers, to the point that he had a 9-1 record and 3.48 ERA at the All-Star break last year and looked primed to make a run at the AL Cy Young.
Flash forward seven months, and nobody wants him in Fantasy -- not too surprising, really, considering he finished with an ERA over 5.00. But pinched cartilage in his right elbow no doubt contributed to his second-half collapse, and the team didn't consider the injury anything an offseason of rest couldn't cure. Then again, we don't have a long history of pitchers who suffered from this same condition, so we can't base Bonderman's recovery on precedent.
Again, as a No. 3 or 4 Fantasy SP, I think the reward outweighs the risk. We're talking about a guy who struck out over 200 batters in 2006 and who has an overloaded offense backing him.
Rafael Furcal, SS, L.A. Dodgers (late rounds)
Furcal sprained his ankle last spring and never quite got over it, going in for an MRI as late as September. Really, the fact that he stole as many as 25 bases in 2007 is a minor miracle in itself.
While people no doubt drafted Furcal for his speed last year, they had to expect more than the six home runs he delivered, but a lower-body injury like a sprained ankle typically cuts down on a player's swing -- especially a little guy like Furcal.
This year, people draft the 30-year-old shortstop late -- like, Julio Lugo late -- probably considering five homers and 25 stolen bases the norm. All evidence suggests otherwise, that Furcal had an off year influenced by a nagging injury, making a return to 15 home runs and 35 stolen bases an absolute possibility.
Troy Glaus/Scott Rolen, 3Bs, St. Louis/Toronto (late rounds)
It's like the Blue Jays and Cardinals phoned each other up and said, "Let's trade injury-risk third base sleepers this offseason." They didn't, of course, but they did provide me a nice way to talk about two guys at once.
Glaus missed a large chunk of 2007 with various foot and leg ailments, most notably plantar fasciitis, which at least partially resulted from playing his home games on artificial turf. Rolen, meanwhile, had surgery to remove scar tissue from his left shoulder, which he had surgically repaired in 2005. With this trade, Glaus gets to play on grass and Rolen ... well, for a manager not named Tony La Russa.
Assuming he's recovered, Glaus should get back to hitting 35-40 homers, which is great if you can stomach the high strikeouts and low batting average that go along with them. Rolen, on the other hand, I'd recommend more for AL-only leagues, but considering he hit 22 home runs the year after his first shoulder surgery, don't assume he's lost all his power.
Rocco Baldelli, OF, Tampa Bay (late rounds)
Baldelli has become somewhat of a forgotten man in Fantasy circles after accumulating only 501 at-bats over the last three years combined. But when the last round or two rolls around on Draft Day, don't you forget about the 27-year-old once projected as a 30-30 man who, even after all his leg injuries, still has the potential to go 20-20 as soon as this year.
After a hamstring problem derailed Baldelli in 2007, the Rays finally came up with a plan to preserve their oft-injured outfielder this year. They'll use him at DH, sparing him the wear and tear of running around in the outfield even though he has tremendous range and fielding ability. And if they ever decide to use him in the field, they'll use him in right, not center.
Could he go down in April or May with another catastrophic injury? Of course he could. But in the last round or two, his talent makes it worth banking on the smaller-than-usual possibility that he won't. Don't expect him to walk much, though, which might affect his worth in some Head-to-Head leagues.
Hank Blalock, 3B, Texas (late rounds)
If you want more evidence pointing to a Sheffield bounceback, look no further than Blalock, who came back from a shoulder surgery of his own last year to hit five home runs in September. Considering he only recently turned 27 and has cut way down on his strikeouts the last two seasons, he still has plenty of breakout potential ahead of him, which makes his injury concern pretty much the only reason he doesn't rank in the top 10 at his position going in to 2008.
As far as I'm concerned, he's already cleared the injury hurdle with his blowout September, which makes him less risky than most of the names on this list. If you miss out on an elite third baseman, you might want to wait to grab Blalock in the late rounds as opposed to Mike Lowell or Adrian Beltre in the middle.
Here's a quick look at a few other injury-risk sleepers to target on Draft Day:
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee (middle-to-late rounds): The once-lauded prospect battled wrist issues the past couple seasons, but he showed himself up to form in September last year, when he had nine home runs and 10 stolen bases. A 30-30 season could come at some point -- perhaps as soon as this year.
Rich Harden, SP, Oakland (middle-to-late rounds): About as brittle as Baldelli so far in his career. If he can ever stay healthy -- an inflamed right shoulder being the latest concern -- he could emerge as a No. 1 Fantasy SP. Definitely worth a late-round pick.
Ken Griffey, OF, Cincinnati (middle-to-late rounds): Perhaps the very inspiration of an injury-risk-sleepers column, Griffey put together 500 at-bats last season for the first time since 2000. In doing so, he showed he still has the ability to produce 30 homers and 100 RBI. A couple of his usual muscle strains could easily cut his at-bats back to 350, though.
Pedro Martinez, SP, N.Y. Mets (late rounds): He came back from major shoulder surgery with impressive results last season, showing his pitches have enough movement to succeed even if they top out at 90 mph. His inability to pitch deep into games might cause his wins to suffer, however.
Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona (late rounds): He's 44 and has chronic back problems, but he still struck out well over a batter per inning in the 10 starts he made last year. In leagues with bench or DL slots, he's definitely worth a look as a No. 5 Fantasy SP.
Jason Schmidt, SP, L.A. Dodgers (late rounds): The 35-year-old had surgery on a torn labrum and probably won't throw in the mid-90s anymore, assuming he can even pitch in April. But for a last-round pick to fill out your pitching staff, you could do a lot worse than the former Cy Young contender.
You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Injury-risk sleepers in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.
