In my first few weeks writing this column, I've come to a life-changing epiphany.
Brian Bannister is the most popular player in Major League Baseball.
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We think Scott White heard from every one of Brian Bannister's owners last week.
(US Presswire)
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How else do you explain the onslaught of angry e-mails after I mentioned him in my last two installments of
Fantasy Sliders -- first, by saying his Fantasy appeal had improved and then by changing my mind a week later?
You'd think I'd just insulted the pope. Or at least Nancy Kerrigan.
And I didn't even say anything that bad. Certainly not the first time, when I praised him. But the masses said he couldn't have improved because he didn't have room to improve because he was so darn good in the first place. Apparently, he does things like allow two earned runs in 21 innings all the time. Who knew?
So then you can imagine the response I got when I took it all back, saying his nine hits in five innings against the Athletics showed all his batted balls would occasionally come back to haunt him. Geez, I could have just as easily burned down the Vatican. It's like projecting anything short of a 1.12 ERA and Cy Young award for Bannister is blatant irresponsibility and immediate grounds for dismissal.
Just to recap ... Bannister: good pitcher, worth using, little upside in Fantasy.
But good for him for building up such a curiously disproportionate fan base. I'm sure he'd like to know he has so many people rushing to defend his honor. Maybe it might psych him up enough to -- I don't know -- strike out a batter.
I'm just asking for it now, aren't I?
Anyway, on to an otherwise Bannister-free version -- I promise -- of Fantasy Sliders.
Sliders
These guys' recent performances signify more than a hot or cold streak. Their Fantasy appeal has actually "slid" either up or down.
Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies
If Shane Victorino's calf injury did nothing else, it gave the right man a starting job in the Philadelphia outfield.
Werth, who entered the season in a platoon with Geoff Jenkins, did such a good job replacing Victorino -- hitting .323 (10-for-31) over his last eight games with four home runs and three doubles -- that he'll shift Jenkins to the bench, possibly remaining in center field as Victorino moves back to right.
And casual sabermetricians everywhere rejoiced.
Werth, 28, has all the peripherals to make you think he'll succeed as a full-time player: good plate discipline -- he posted an on-base percentage of .404 last year -- and decent power. Shoot, he hit 16 home runs in 290 at-bats for the Dodgers in 2004 before missing most of the next two years with a wrist injury. And after he spent the first half of 2007 getting back into the swing of things, he hit .329 with five home runs in the second half, posting a Lance Berkman-like OPS of .950.
Werth is no Berkman -- don't get me wrong -- but when he puts up numbers just as good in limited at-bats and suddenly ends up with full-time at-bats, you have to give him a look in Fantasy -- especially when the Orioles thought highly enough of him to make him their first-round draft pick in 1997. And although he tends to hit left-handers much better than right-handers, those splits usually even out with increased exposure.
So I say add Werth in all leagues. He has a starting point as a No. 4 Fantasy outfielder and with upside to grow into more, it's certainly Werth the investment.
Come on. You knew it was coming.
Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels
The Angels downplay any kind of power breakout for Kotchman. In fact, manager Mike Scioscia kind of makes it sound like nothing more than good luck. "I think Kotch is getting some pitches to hit and is doing a great job of squaring balls up," he told MLB.com. "I think Kotch's swing is geared toward the line drive, using the whole field. Lately, he's getting some pitches to drive and is not missing them."
Way to give credit where credit is due, Mikey.
But you know it's all a front. You know the Angels management team feels all giddy inside. The organization has its power bat, its left-handed complement to Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter, and all is right in the world.
All is right in Fantasy, too, because while some might write off Kotchman's six home runs as a fluke after watching him set a career high with only 11 last year, others realize that at age 25, his power has plenty of time to develop.
And you have to like his potential even more when you consider he hit .325 in 1,241 career minor-league at-bats. And you have to like it even more when you consider he lost a year of development (2006) to mononucleosis, otherwise known as the kissing disease.
Not that I blame him. He is Casey Kotchman, after all.
I don't project him to hit 35 home runs or anything like that, but 25-30 with a batting average over .300 makes him a must-start in Fantasy. Consider him the AL-version of one of last week's Sliders, Conor Jackson.
Matt Garza, SP, Rays
Including Garza on this list might seem like odd timing right now, considering he just got off the disabled list after missing over two weeks with radial nerve irritation in his pitching arm, but his performance in his return start reminded too much of that guy we saw last year -- you know, the one who, ignoring his 3.69 ERA deflated by a handful of early good starts, posted a 1.54 WHIP and lasted a little over five innings per start.
Garza allowed five hits and three walks in five innings against the Red Sox on Friday, which doesn't sound bad on the surface, but when you do the math, it's a 1.60 WHIP.
I agree Garza has stellar minor-league numbers -- with the ERA, the WHIP and the strikeout rate all beautiful -- but he just doesn't get it at the major-league level, not yet. I don't know if it's a case of him nibbling too much or trying to overcompensate for a lack of pitches, but he has control problems. And he won't contribute much in the way of wins and strikeouts if he can't pitch deep into games.
I'm not saying he won't develop into a useful Fantasy pitcher ever or even by the end of this year, but I expect him to do more harm than good for Fantasy owners over the next few months. The hit your team's WHIP will take isn't worth the upside.
Edinson Volquez, SP, Reds
I had no desire to draft Volquez in mixed leagues this spring. Not gonna lie.
It's not that I didn't think he had great stuff or could become a useful pitcher someday. I knew of his top-prospect standing. But looking at his numbers in the minors and in his short time with the Rangers, I didn't get the impression a breakout was imminent. And why waste a draft pick on something that's not imminent?
You heard me, Joba Chamberlain owners.
But I come before you good people today a changed man, willing to accept the consequences for my transgressions and embrace Volquez as a burgeoning Fantasy ace. If his eight strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings against the Phillies or his seven strikeouts in seven innings against the Dodgers didn't catch my attention, his 10 strikeouts in seven innings against the Giants sure did. And while I'd like to see him walk fewer than a batter every two innings, there comes a point when a guy pitches with such dominance it doesn't even matter. With a 1.23 ERA, Volquez has reached that point.
If you don't have him starting in your league, I'd like to know why. Maybe you could send me an e-mail. Maybe even an angry one. Try mentioning Brian Bannister -- it'll help you emote.
(I just broke a promise, didn't I?)
Jonathan Sanchez, SP, Giants
I like to select my Sliders based on statistical performance more than opportunity, but I already strayed once with Werth, so I'll do so again with Sanchez.
The statistics: When a pitcher strikes out 10 batters in a game once, you can write it off as a fluke. Even Tim Redding did it once. But when a pitcher does it twice, like Sanchez has this season after whiffing 10 Reds in eight innings in his last start, you have a serious strikeout artist on your hands and someone who can make a huge contribution in Fantasy. Even if you don't expect him to win many games for the offensively inept Giants, his strikeout rate of 11.6 per nine innings alone makes him worth starting, not to mention his 1.18 WHIP.
The opportunity: None of us really saw Sanchez coming because he'd made only eight starts in the majors before this season, spending most of his time in the bullpen. And before Noah Lowry's arm injury this spring, he seemed an obvious choice to go back to the bullpen. Any thoughts of him shifting to relief now are unrealistic not only because of his performance, but because Kevin Correia has an oblique injury and Barry Zito has forgotten how to pitch.
Take a chance on Sanchez if he remains unowned in your league. Think of him as Oliver Perez, but with a better understanding of the strike zone and a worse supporting cast.
Hanging Sliders
These guys look like sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.
Mark Reynolds, 3B, Diamondbacks
I'd like to direct my colleague, Eric Mack, to turn away from the monitor for the next few lines of text because I'm about to speak poorly of a man he loves so much you'd think he conceived him personally. (Don't worry, Eric -- I'll call you back as soon as I'm done.)
Well, well, well ... just as soon as everyone hops on board, we get a glimpse of the dark side of Mr. Reynolds. I bet you thought I should include him among my Sliders after he hit five home runs in his first eight games, and I thought about it. I thought long and hard. But I had my reservations, and they came to light this week when he went 4-for-29 with 18 strikeouts.
Yeah, 18 strikeouts ... in one week. To put that in perspective, Tony Gwynn struck out 18 times in 1998 -- a whole season. And I know I probably shouldn't compare two players with completely different skill sets, but the fact remains Reynolds will struggle to hit with any amount of consistency until he learns to make better contact. I mean, he struck out 129 times in 366 at-bats last year. Adam Dunn can only dream of such a rate.
But Reynolds has power -- I'll give him that. Even during that awful week, he hit two home runs. Is he worth owning? Without question, but I think he'll have enough prolonged cold streaks to limit his upside to 30 homers instead of 40 (his 17 last year project to 26 in 550 at-bats) and a batting average on the wrong side of .270. And if I play in a league that penalizes strikeouts, I'd prefer to make him somebody else's problem.
Welcome back, Eric.
A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays
When you drafted Burnett this spring, you knew you wouldn't get a full season of starts. But you also knew you'd get a nice WHIP and ERA and at least a strikeout per inning.
Needless to say, his 6.07 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings through five starts (and one relief appearance) is clearly not what the doctor ordered -- no pun intended.
Take that as a lesson you'll probably receive only this one time in your life: Respect your fingernails. Burnett smashed one on his right index finger well before spring training and couldn't throw his bread-and-butter curveball until late March. He has to get a feel for it now in the first month of the season, when in the past, he would have done so in spring training.
But it's coming along. His last start would have gone better if the Blue Jays didn't leave him in the game too long, and even then, he allowed three earned runs in 7 1/3 innings, striking out six. He's coming around, and if you part with him now, you probably won't get enough back for your investment.
Change-up
Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.
Brandon Lyon, RP, Diamondbacks
I had to dig through the archives to find this week's change-up because no one from last week's column really fit the bill, which means I either did well or didn't take enough risks. You decide.
After the first week of the season, I called Lyon a fraud as a closer. He had just blown two saves and presumably didn't have a long leash with Tony A. Pena -- the favorite to win the job in the offseason -- toiling in setup duty.
Fast-forward to the end of April, and Lyon has a nine-inning scoreless streak. He has seven saves, including four in the past week, and is allowing less than a baserunner per inning.
Not only has Lyon shown me he can pitch effectively enough to hold down the job, but the Diamondbacks, with their deadly combination of pitching and hitting, have shown me they might run away with their division -- and possibly the National League -- giving Lyon a dream number of save opportunities.
Plus, as one esteemed reader pointed out, when Lyon saved 14 games for the Diamondbacks in 2005, he did so with a 1.96 ERA before injuries hit in mid-May, leading to his comparatively nauseating season ERA of 6.49.
I wouldn't go so far as to call him a No. 1 Fantasy closer just yet, but he's right on the border and is a clear must-start in all leagues that reward saves.
You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.