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The J.D. Drew (riskier than a solo late-night stroll in Port-au-Prince): On one hand, Miguel Tejada has enough left in his B-12-powered bat to hit 30 homers and drive in a bunch of runs, especially given the righty-friendly left-field perch at Minute Maid Park. On the other, he could be indicted within a few months and might provoke homicidal rage in the 'Stros pitchers with his rangeless play at shortstop. Personally, I don't have the stomach to draft him.
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The Garrett Anderson ("so underrated, he's overrated"): For years, Michael Young was everybody's favorite below-the-radar roto runt, not to mention one of the hard-workin', self-effacin' human beings who prompted hard-minded writers to lapse into "he plays baseball the right way" ecstasy. But while Young remains a 200-hit mainstay, his power has gone the way of the manatee (24 homers in 2005, 9 in 2007). He's basically Julio Lugo with better press clippings.
The Carlos Baerga (potential for sudden premature aging): I love every non-performance-related thing about Torii Hunter. He speaks his mind. He is one of the rare baseball gazillionaires who seems to care about getting young kids, especially black ones, more interested in the game. Still, Hunter's defensive prowess is more reputation than reality at this point and his bat -- especially the .330-ish OBP -- won't be enough when he's forced to an outfield corner in a year or two. Somebody tell the Los Anaheim clubhouse guy to start looking out for, and promptly hiding, the "uh, we didn't just spend $90 million on this guy, did we?" headlines come August.
The Felix Hernandez (young turk drafted six rounds too early): Joba Chamberlain will hopefully contribute more to my week-to-week happiness over the next eight years than anything not involving a mattress or a deep fryer. For now, he's a middle reliever who won't be allowed to top 120 innings in 2008. Twenty bucks says the New York Post runs with a "Joba Drools!" headline after his first late-game implosion.
The Mark Davis (newly signed free-agent flop): There has to be a better way to tell beaten-down small-market fans "we're trying" than by spending $36 million on a swings-very-loud corner outfielder like Jose Guillen. Thirty-six million ... that's a lot of dough that might instead have been pumped into a Dominican training academy, free-agency-postponing deals for young stars like Billy Butler, or the mother of all BBQ pits in center field at Kauffman Stadium. If Guillen doesn't start hitting right away ("right away" being after he serves a 15-game steroid suspension), he'll be dismissed as a miracle of science.
The Paul O'Neill (changes of scenery are good, even if they sometimes require a visit to IKEA): I understand that Dan Haren was less than great during the second half of last season and that he has relocated to a tougher home ballpark. These are compelling points, indeedy they are, Martha. But what about the designated hitters he no longer has to face, or the possibility of five starts against the Giants? The innings, strikeouts and ERA will still be there. All things considered, Haren comes out ahead.
The Heathcliff Slocumb (change of scenery is bad, because it's hard to make new friends in middle school): The odds of Scott Rolen staying completely healthy on the Rogers Centre turf aren't as poor as you'd think. First, because he's already down with a broken finger; and second, because he doesn't have too many functional tendons or ligaments left. You can't tear, shred or distend a body part that no longer exists.
The Jose Mesa (saves in low places): I subscribe to the notion that you can get saves anywhere: From eighth-on-the-depth-chart middle relievers, between the sofa cushions, etc. It is an act of resource-depleting stupidity to overpay for a Joe Nathan or a Jonathan Papelbon (who looked positively Farnsworthian on Tuesday morning, by the way) when you'll likely get the same save numbers from Todd Jones.
Once more, with feeling: A guy who throws 70 innings per season can only impact your ERA and WHIP so much. For saves, just draft a real-world turd like Jones, Borowski or Chad Cordero, then monitor the waiver wire for this year's Jeremy Accardo (30 saves after B.J. Ryan went down last April) or Kevin Gregg (32 saves, 87 Ks in 84 innings after claiming the closer's role in May). Me, I'm patiently waiting on Kazuo Fukumori.
The Hideki Irabu (not in this lifetime): Alternately known, with all due credit to celebrity-roast god Jeffrey Ross, as the "I wouldn't blank him with Bea Arthur's blank" award. Pedro Feliz. Kaz Matsui. The Orioles' vomitous 4/5/6 triad of Millar/Huff/Scott. Any Minnesota infielder not surnamed "Morneau." The entire San Francisco franchise except Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Beware. Be wary.
