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Wednesday's season premiere of The Ultimate Fighter on Spike TV revealed a major format change for the highly successful reality show. Instead of using subjective criteria to choose 16 finalists for the cast made up of middleweights, a field of 32 fighters will have to fight their way into the TUF mansion.
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With so many names involved, it's hard to get an idea of which fighters have the best odds of winning. And analyzing a fighter based solely on his credentials isn't enough, as the first episode taught us. Heading into the season, Steve Byrnes (6-1) not only looked like a shoo-in for the final field of 16 but appeared to be a fighter that had a chance to make it to the finals.
Not only was Byrnes one of the more experienced fighters who tried out for the show, the Marine also had one UFC fight under his belt. But Amir Sadollah, who had never fought as a pro before, arm-barred Byrnes in the second round of their fight shown during premiere and made it into the house.
The field has been cut from 32 to 24 and will be reduced to 16 following next week's episode, but that isn't going to stop us from doing our best to handicap the field of current TUF 7 contestants.
C.B. Dollaway: Dolloway is a blue chip prospect who trains out of one of the fastest rising fight gyms in the country, Trevor and Todd Lally's Arizona Combat Sports. Some of the most successful fighters to come into MMA in recent years have strong amateur wrestling credentials, and Dollaway fits the bill. While attending Arizona State in 2005, Dollway earned All-American honors.
Strong wrestlers always have an advantage when starting their MMA careers because they have the ability to control a fight. Dollaway showed that when he made it into the field of 16 following his impressive tournament victory over David Baggett.
Since converting to MMA, he has mowed down his competition en route to a 6-0 record. Dollaway has recorded some of his wins on bigger shows such as HDNet Fights, Rage in the Cage, and the now-defunct IFO.
Having watched Dollaway before, I will be shocked if anyone emerges as a bigger threat to win the tournament than him. Based on his wrestling background, the training camp he comes from and his performances in his early pro fights, I consider him to be the clear favorite to win TUF 7.
Odds of winning: 3-1.
Paul Bradley: Bradley and Dollaway are similar in that they are both undefeated blue-chip middleweight prospects with outstanding amateur wrestling credentials. Bradly was a two-time All-American and three-time national qualifier while wrestling at the University of Iowa. He made a successful MMA debut in October of 2006, submitting James Powell with a guillotine choke in the first round.
Dana White did not seem very high on Bradley following his initial win over Reggie Orr, which seemed kind of odd considering Bradley is so highly regarded as a prospect. But the bottom line is that Bradley won, which is the only thing he has done in his first five MMA fights since turning pro.
Whether a fighter advances on TUF has nothing to do with how pretty their fights are since winning is the only thing that matters. And since winning fights is the only thing Bradley needs to worry about to advance on TUF, he's destined for an extended run.
Odds of winning: 5-1.
