By Rob Rang
Senior Analyst
NFLDraftScout.com April 22, 2008
With the NFL cutting the time allotted for first-round picks from 15 to 10 minutes, teams are being forced to do much of their trade discussion in the days leading up to the draft.
Much of the increased trade chatter is revolving around players whose stock -- even with only days before the draft -- continues to fluctuate. Among them are two underrated running backs whose stocks are skyrocketing, a surprise front-runner to be the first tight end selected and two first-round offensive linemen poised to fall.
They are among this week's Risers & Fallers:
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While he lacks the bulk at 5-feet-11, 197 pounds to be a featured back at the next level, Johnson's versatility as an outside runner, receiver and kick returner has his stock skyrocketing as the draft approaches. Many have touted the athleticism of juniors Felix Jones (Arkansas) and Jamaal Charles (Texas), but in Johnson, teams see a player boasting better workout numbers and more production. With more NFL teams choosing to go with a running-back-by-committee approach, Johnson could hear his name called as early as the late portion of the first round. Chicago, Dallas and San Diego are reported to be especially interested in Johnson, who led the nation with an average of 227.69 all-purpose yards per game last year.
For teams looking for a traditional feature back, Smith is making a late jump up the board. Finishing only 62 yards short of Barry Sanders' all-time Division-I single-season rushing record (2,628 yard) last season, Smith certainly has the production teams are looking for. However, after less than eye-popping workout results at the Combine -- including a 4.53 second 40-yard dash -- Smith had been characterized as a good back whose production was inflated by Central Florida's offense. The more teams watch Smith on film, however, the more impressed they are with his patience and vision. At 6-1, 217 pounds, Smith is significantly better suited to the every-down duties of the pros than the myriad of undersized backs likely to be drafted in the second to third rounds this weekend.
While he may lack the athletic upside of some of the draft's more highly-touted tight end prospects, Carlson could be the first from the position to hear his name called this weekend. Rated by many as the elite senior tight end heading into the 2007 season, Carlson epitomized the Irish frustrations with a disappointing season. Illness kept him out of the Senior Bowl and left him in poor form at the Combine. A strong effort at his Pro Day, however, sparked Carlson's stock and as teams re-focus on the film in the days leading up to the draft, Carlson's stock is jumping. While he doesn't have the desired speed to threaten down the seam, the 6-5, 251-pounder ranks among the position's elite in terms of his route-running, hands and blocking. Some teams feel that while Carlson may lack the upside of a Dustin Keller or Martellus Bennett, he is the surer, more NFL-ready prospect.
O'Connell entered his senior season as not even a blip on the NFL radar. Of all the quarterbacks invited to the Combine, he is the only one who wasn't recognized by the preseason scouting services used by the NFL. As a senior, however, O'Connell earned second-team Mountain West Conference honors as the first quarterback in school history to lead the team in passing (3,063) and rushing (408). In flashing athleticism -- and most important, improvement -- throughout the weeks at the Hula Bowl, East-West Shrine Game and Combine, the 6-5, 225-pound O'Connell is emerging as one of the top developmental quarterbacks of the 2008 draft.
Davenzo Tate
CB
Akron
Despite leading the Mid-American Conference with 17 pass breakups last season, Tate was not invited to the Combine. After posting spectacular workout numbers in a recent Pro Day, however, scouts are buzzing about the West Virginia transfer. The 5-10, 186-pounder started 31 games over the past three seasons, but it was his 40-inch vertical jump, 11'0" broad jump and 40 times ranging from 4.26-4.35 that have captured the imagination of scouts. Unlike many transfers, Tate's decision to transfer to Akron from West Virginia was not based on academics. In fact, Tate earned a spot on the Dean's List as a freshman while at WVU and graduated last spring from Akron with a B.A. in business administration communication.
Possessing rare lateral quickness at 6-6, 315 pounds, Williams has the combination of athleticism and size teams look for in a left tackle. With only marginal strength (21 reps) and tenacity, however, he is viewed as slightly more of a developmental left tackle prospect than one capable of stepping in immediately at the position. Characterized as a possible top 10 pick by some, Williams is slipping down the board a bit late and is more likely to come off the board in the late teens to early 20s.
Like Williams, Otah is slipping down the board slightly as the draft approaches. Unlike Williams, however, the concerns with Otah have more to do with his relative inexperience, rather than a lack of strength. In fact, the 6-6, 322-pound Otah's best attribute might be his upper body strength (27 reps) as a drive blocker. However, he only has played football for five years and remains a work in progress. He possesses rare lateral agility for a player of his size, but isn't quick enough to make up for his lack of technique to remain at left tackle as a rookie. Strong performances against Virginia defensive end Chris Long and South Florida's George Selvie prove Otah's ability, but he gave up 8.5 sacks last year. With further development, Otah could rank as one of the elite offensive linemen from the 2008 draft, but the fact that he'll be limited to the right side or even inside at guard early in his career will push him in the latter portion of the first round.
As the career leader in tackles at "Linebacker U," there is no denying Connor's production. Teams do question his upside, however. While he has shown good athleticism throughout his career and performed well at the Senior Bowl and his Pro Day, Connor lacks elite speed or explosiveness to his play. Arguably the draft's most reliable open-field tackler, Connor is nonetheless likely to slip into the second round.
The knock on Cason has always been a perceived lack of speed. While Cason was faster than anticipated (4.45 seconds) at the Combine, teams remain hesitant to draft him as high as reputation would have you believe. A four-year all-conference selection at Arizona, Cason is perceived by scouts as "good, not great." Characterized as a physical corner throughout much of his career, Cason was more of a grabber than a hitter in 2008. With questions about his deep speed, Cason had been viewed by many as a natural for the two deep scheme -- an alignment that asks its corners to make a lot of tackles while getting plenty of help over the top.
Robert Frost said it: "Something there is that doesn't love a wall..." Possessing the school record with 50 consecutive starts, Schuening essentially was a wall for the Beavers throughout his career. Showing more technique and passion than actual explosiveness, however, Schuening could fall down the board a bit this weekend. In Schuening's case, his consistency at guard is actually being seen as a detriment by some clubs. When projecting against the speed of the NFL, scouts generally prefer drafting collegiate tackles and moving them inside rather than taking "pure" guards. With a class of offensive tackles as deep as this one, Schuening -- as well as many other guards -- could fall a full round lower than valued.
