Five from the fringe: Teams with big shots at surprising

If you're looking for a team to ascend from the ashes of a year ago, why not start by looking at Phoenix. Yes, Phoenix.

Quarterback Kurt Warner gives the Cardinals a whole new look on offense. (AP)

The Cardinals have been bottom-feeders for years, but there's something about them that makes you think maybe, just maybe, they'll be forced to cancel their January tee times -- and I think you know what that something is.

The NFC West.

It's a division that last year featured a division winner that was one game above .500, another club that won a league-low two games and two that were the NFL's worst in the takeaway/giveaway differential.

It's what you might call the land of opportunity, and the opportunity is there if Arizona can do what it didn't a year ago -- namely, beat the 49ers.

But Arizona isn't alone, and we offer four others as possible long shots for this year's playoffs, including Kansas City and Carolina. Now, I understand that rebounding from 7-9 isn't a big deal, but the Chiefs and Panthers were nowhere near the tops of their divisions -- with Kansas City five games out of first and Carolina four behind first-place Atlanta.

OK, OK, so the Panthers would've reached the playoffs if they won their last game. The qualification for this list is finishing below .500 a year ago. But try finding a sub-par AFC team ready to make the jump forward. Cleveland is out. Tennessee recovers from cap cuts. Oakland has too many holes on defense. And quarterback A.J. Feeley makes me nervous about Miami.

Which leaves Houston and Kansas City. Give me the Chiefs.

The NFC has plenty of candidates, with the tough calls between Detroit and Chicago and Dallas and the New York Giants. The quarterback makes me nervous in Detroit, too, but the Lions have Jeff Garcia sitting behind him -- and the last time he and Steve Mariucci were together they took an overachieving 49ers' team into the playoffs.

The Cowboys could make the move, too, largely because Bill Parcells doesn't lose two consecutive years. In fact, before last year the last time he finished below .500 was 1995 when the New England Patriots were 6-10, the same record he had with Dallas last season.

The quarterback then? Drew Bledsoe. The quarterback now? Drew Bledsoe.

All of that sounds good until you get around to a club that's moving to a 3-4 defense under a coordinator who's uncomfortable with it; young, inexperienced players in key defensive spots, holes at free safety and offensive right tackle and a quarterback who absolutely, positively must cut down on his mistakes.

I know, I know, Parcells was 10-6 two years ago with Quincy Carter and Troy Hambrick, and he's better at both positions now. But he also had the league's top-ranked defense. Let's see how Dallas adjusts to a new system with young players.