Playoff team breakdown: NFC

Prisco's AFC breakdown

The Chicago Bears are the No. 1 seed in this season's NFC playoffs, but here's what I'd like to know: Have you ever had less faith in a top seed than you do these Bears?

Sure, they can play defense. But they lost two of their star performers, safety Mike Brown and defensive tackle Tommie Harris, and struggled down the stretch against opponents like Tampa Bay, Detroit and Green Bay.

Then there's Rex Grossman. The guy's an interception waiting to happen, and, yeah, if I were a Bears' fan, he'd make me nervous. Maybe that's because the 36 turnovers he and his teammates committed are more than anyone in the playoffs.

Finally, there's the Chicago weather. January is supposed to be the great equalizer for these Bears, the month that humbles opponents with Arctic temperatures, wind and misery. But check the 10-day forecast: I can't find a day where the temperature is expected to stay below freezing.

What I'm saying is that there's no dead-bolt cinch in the NFC playoffs. So Chicago's No. 1, and that's great. But the Bears are beatable. And if there's no one in this playoff field that can do it, there's always the chance the Bears beat themselves.

Believe me, Chicago fans understand.

Chicago Bears

The skinny: While the Bears are the top seed, they might not be the team to beat. Sure, they're home for the playoffs, but a lot of good being home did them a year ago against Carolina. And their defense then was more formidable than it is now.

The problem I have with Chicago is twofold: First, there's Grossman; then there's a defense that seems to have hit the wall. Let's address Grossman first. He looked terrific the first month of the season; then opponents started catching on to the guy. And the more he played, the worse he looked.

In five of his last 11 games he had three or more interceptions. Once he produced a passer rating of 10.2. Once, it was 1.3. In his season finale, it pulled a Blutarsky. Zero-point-zero. He played only three opponents with winning records, and the last was New England -- where he threw no touchdowns and had three interceptions.

You get the idea. The good news for Grossman is that he has a pair of running backs to take the weight of the postseason off his tired shoulders. The bad news is: There's really nothing special about the Bears rushing attack. It ranks 15th in the league, with a per-carry average of 3.8 yards -- tied for 23rd.

Now, on to a defense that can and might have to carry this team. You have Brian Urlacher. You have Lance Briggs. Nathan Vasher. And rookie Mark Anderson. But you can rely on one side of the ball only so long, and these guys seem to be wearing down. Look at their past three starts: Tampa Bay put up 31 points and 357 yards; Detroit put up 21 points and 327 yards; Green Bay put up 26 points and 373 yards. I call that more than a trend; I call it a concern.

Once, Grossman could count on his defense and special teams to bail him out. I don't know that that's the case anymore. My question is: What happens if this club falls behind by 10? Can it come back? And can it come back without making a quarterback switch? Chicago hopes it doesn't have to find out. Pray for snow, Lovie.

Player on the spot: It's Grossman. After throwing 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in his first five starts, he went into a tailspin that he can't seem to stop. Look at his past 11 starts: He's 8-3, which is good; but his ratio of 13 touchdowns to 17 interceptions is not.

You can hurry him into poor throws, but that's not unusual for a quarterback. What bothers you most about Rex are some of the dreadful decisions he makes before launching another interception. I wouldn't trust him to pass the salt without something going wrong.

Area of concern: See Rex Grossman.

Interesting stat: The Bears have an NFL-best 20 returns for touchdowns (interceptions, fumble recoveries, punt returns, kickoff returns) over the past three seasons. That's two more than they had from 1985-1987.

Will go to the Super Bowl if ... Grossman plays more like the quarterback of September than the quarterback of November and December. If Grossman can minimize the errors and the defense corrects itself, Chicago can make it.

New Orleans Saints

The Skinny: It was hard to know whether to trust these guys until Dec. 10. That's when they went into Dallas and buried the Cowboys. It wasn't only that they won in a hostile environment; it was that they won so convincingly, kicking the Cowboys' keisters from Irving to Fort Worth.

That was the tipoff that maybe this is the season to embrace the Saints. Yeah, I know all about their playoff history. I know about the history of dome teams going outdoors in the playoffs, too. But there's something extraordinary about these Saints, and it goes from the coach to the quarterback to the star running back.

Essentially, it's a core of guys rejected by someone else. Coach Sean Payton used to call plays for the Giants until he was replaced by his head coach -- who, in turn, was later canned with the rest of his staff. Now Payton is the favorite for Coach of the Year.

Quarterback Drew Brees was allowed to walk away from San Diego and spurned by Miami because both clubs were wary of a right shoulder he injured in his last regular-season game. Then Brees threw for more yards than anyone and was a runner-up to LaDainian Tomlinson in the MVP voting.

Rookie running back Reggie Bush was passed over by Houston in the draft for Mario Williams, and there's no need to dissect that move again. Let's just say it was a gift that keeps on giving.

Essentially, this is a team that believes it can beat anyone anywhere ... basically because it has. It faced three of this year's NFC playoff teams and knocked off all of them -- Philadelphia at the Superdome and the Giants and Dallas on the road. The Eagles game was close; the others were not.

OK, so there's nothing formidable about the Saints defense -- especially against the run. But its overall play was better than it was supposed to be. In fact, before the season finale when New Orleans rested its starters, the Saints didn't allow an opponent more than 17 points in any of its previous five games.

Now, combine that with the league's No.1-ranked offense, and you can understand why people out there tout the Saints, not Chicago, as the team to beat in the NFC. Now, more than ever, Lovie, pray for that snow.

Player on the spot: Rookie wide receiver Marques Colston. With Joe Horn's groin injury unresolved, Colston is Brees' go-to target. The former Hofstra star has been terrific, with 1,038 yards in receptions and a second-place finish in the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. But it sure would help a guy taking his first spin around the playoffs if Horn were around to draw double coverage.

Area of concern: The run defense. The Saints rank 26th, but look at what opponents average per carry: 4.9 yards, and no defense is worse outside of Indianapolis. Of course, having defensive tackle Hollis Thomas back after a four-game hiatus can't do anything but help -- but you have to wonder what condition he's in. Memo to New Orleans' next opponent: Look for first downs between the tackles.

Interesting stat: Drew Brees' 4,418 yards passing are the most in NFL history for a quarterback in his first season with a new team. The previous best was 4,359 by Drew Bledsoe with Buffalo in 2002.

Will the make the playoffs if ... it's not rattled by the experience, and it stays out of the snow. Brees has been in the playoffs once, and he bowed out after one start. Now I want to see what he learned from that experience. These guys have so many weapons they scare you. And they should scare Chicago. And Philadelphia. And Seattle. And ...

Dallas Cowboys

The skinny: Now Big D stands for Depression, like the one Dallas fans are in after their team gagged down the stretch.

Once the Cowboys seemed a lock for the NFC East title. Then they lost to New Orleans. And Philly. And Detroit. They bombed in three of their last four, winning only against an Atlanta club so dysfunctional it couldn't wait to fire its coach once the season ended.

Dallas was supposed to be one of the NFC powerhouses, but that's before Sean Payton broke out his box of kryptonite and exposed it to Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. He hasn't been the same since.

After winning six of his first eight starts, Romo spun out of control in successive losses to end the season. Now, his coach says Romo's problem is ... overconfidence?.

Uh-oh. If I'm in the Dallas huddle, I don't want to hear that about my quarterback -- especially on the eve of the playoffs. Remember: Romo hasn't been in a postseason game before, so fasten your seat belts. It could be a bumpy ride.

He has weapons galore in Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Patrick Crayton and Jason Witten but lately has had trouble finding them. That's because opposing defenses found ways to pressure the pocket and make the once-certain quarterback hurry throws.

I say "once-certain" because Romo seems to have lost his mojo, and rewind the videotape to last weekend's loss to Detroit. He fumbled four times, losing two, and had an interception. But that's not all. He made a raft of other goofs, including calling a timeout when coach Bill Parcells didn't want one.

The good news for Romo is that he has a solid support group. Running backs Julius Jones and Marion Barber are dependable, and his cast of receivers is as deep as it is talented. So Romo doesn't have to go it alone, a message Parcells should continue to hammer. Romo can get in trouble when he tries to do too much -- and the results can be catastrophic.

That's important to remember, because Dallas absolutely, positively cannot afford turnovers here. The Cowboys defense isn't good enough to survive repeated attacks -- particularly on short fields. The evidence: In its past three losses, Dallas never had the ball more than 27:53 in any game. That kind of exercise will wear anyone out.

Player on the spot: It has to be Romo. Once he couldn't do anything wrong; now he struggles to make something happen. His resume includes 10 NFL starts, but none in the playoffs. That should make Dallas fans nervous. So should this: In December, he was intercepted eight times and fumbled seven times. The Cowboys were 2-3.

Area of concern: The pass defense. Basically, there isn't one. Look what happened the past month. Opponents shredded the Cowboys secondary. The pass rush couldn't reach quarterbacks, and the defensive backs couldn't cover anyone. Michael Vick threw for four touchdowns. Drew Brees threw for five. Jon Kitna threw for four. In their last five games, opposing quarterbacks completed 65 percent of their passes on Dallas and beat the Cowboys for 16 touchdowns, with only three interceptions. Then there is this: Only three teams allowed more TD passes this season than the Cowboys' 25.

Interesting stat: Romo's home is off the range. For some reason the Dallas quarterback seems more comfortable away from Texas Stadium, and the numbers prove it. He has seven touchdown passes and four interceptions there but won four of five starts. He was 2-3 at home, and that's a reflection of this club. Aside from the Indianapolis game, the Cowboys' biggest victories occurred on the road.

Will go to the Super Bowl if ... they can straighten out their pass defense and settle down the quarterback. This team has talent and a coach who knows how to navigate the playoffs. Plus, it seems to play better on the road. But the Cowboys pass defense is horrible, and their quarterback has no playoff experience. That's not a good combination.

New York Giants

The skinny: Two months ago they were the team to beat in the NFC East. Then they lost a slew of players and a slew of games, gathering themselves just in time to sneak into the playoffs by holding off Washington. Great. The question now is: Can the Giants somehow summon the strength to win a second consecutive start for the first time since Nov. 5?

Well, they're in the right spot. They have beaten the Eagles three of their past four games, with two of those wins in Philadelphia. The Giants can thank their lucky stars they're here rather than Seattle, where they were dissected earlier this season. It's one thing to fly six hours across the country to get waxed; it's another to drive an hour and a half down the highway to meet a club you believe you can beat.

And the Giants do believe they can beat the Eagles. One problem: Philadelphia has momentum, and New York does not. The Eagles won their last five; the Giants won one of their last five and two of their last eight. Plus, there are all sorts of issues swirling around New York's locker room, and you caught a glimpse when coach Tom Coughlin demoted his offensive coordinator before the last regular-season game.

That was unusual, but it saved his season. At least for a week. New offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride did what anyone connected to this offense should do: He handed the ball to Tiki Barber and let him go. Barber responded with a franchise-best 234 yards that pushed the team to a critical victory.

So give the ball to Barber again. And again. The last time the Giants were in Philadelphial the Eagles bottled up Barber until New York spread the field with four receivers and entrusted the game to Eli Manning. He responded with his best effort of the season, despite absorbing eight sacks, but for Giants' fans hoping for an encore remember this: New York had a healthy Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey then.

To be honest, the Giants are lucky to be here, but so what? Maybe that makes the team play without a conscience. You hope so, anyway. It has nothing to lose but another game, and New York is used to that by now. If the Giants are to keep this one close, they must control the ball and handle Jim Johnson's blitz package.

Maybe then they can keep their defense off the field. And they should. While the pass rush improved against Washington, the Giants continue to allow too many yards passing and too many points. Do the math, and you find New York surrendered 94 points in its last three starts -- including 36 to the Eagles. Not good.

Player on the spot: Cornerback R.W. McQuarters has been the target of opposing quarterbacks the past few weeks and hasn't responded. He was beaten for big plays, and he was beaten for important touchdowns -- including that 19-yarder that propelled Philadelphia to its come-from-behind win last month. Count on Jeff Garcia and the Eagles to find him.

Area of concern: An inconsistent passing game. Manning has been all over the place, throwing too many interceptions and making a raft of poor decisions. He's a talented quarterback and has a bright future, but he should be further ahead at this stage of his career. Maybe he needs another set of coaches and another offense to learn, I don't know. What I do know is that what's going on now is not good.

Interesting stat: The Giants scored first in 13 of their 16 games this season and were 7-6. They did not allow opponents to score a touchdown on their first possessions in their last 14 starts, the longest streak in the league.

Will go to the Super Bowl if ... Eli turns into Peyton Manning and a pass rush that misses Michael Strahan keeps enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to minimize the damage they can inflict on a sub-par secondary.

Philadelphia Eagles

The skinny: There's no team in the NFC with greater momentum, and that counts for plenty at this stage. I didn't believe in this team until it completed a sweep of three consecutive road games -- with Dallas the final stop on the victory tour. Since 1990, there have been 97 three-game road trips in the NFL, and only seven clubs won all three. That tells you something about these Eagles.

So they're not as deep as they've been in the past, but they're playing better at this stage than some of those Philly teams that graduated to the NFC Championship Game. Jeff Garcia, who took over for Donovan McNabb, has been magnificent -- making big plays and committing few mistakes. More important, he has avoided trouble, taking only six sacks in six starts.

But Garcia is only part of the equation here. The play calling of offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg has been critical, with the Eagles becoming such a balanced club that running back Brian Westbrook just completed his first 1,000-yard season and had four games with 20 or more carries -- or twice as many as he had in his career before this season.

The key here is that everyone is contributing. Before McNabb's injury, the Pro Bowl quarterback carried the club. Now everyone has been asked to pitch in. So you have Garcia. And Westbrook. And tight end L.J. Smith. And a passel of wide receivers, most of whom you don't recognize. In the Eagles' 36-22 defeat of the Giants last month, Garcia connected with eight receivers.

But the important part of Philadelphia's recovery is its defense. That part of the game always has been the backbone of this team. It's beginning to stop the run. It's beginning to sack the quarterback. It's beginning to make critical stops. In short, it's beginning to achieve the identity it had in past seasons when coordinator Jim Johnson gained recognition as one of the league's elite assistants.

The crowning achievement was that 23-7 rout of Dallas on Christmas Day when Philadelphia stopped Dallas at the Eagles 1 and held the Cowboys to 83 yards rushing. Philly also forced three turnovers, including two interceptions, and that's how you win, folks.

A team with the 26th-ranked rushing defense isn't supposed to go far, but the Eagles were effective the past three weeks against the 13th, seventh and first-rated rushing offenses. As I said, it's all about momentum. It can take you places mere talent cannot, and we have the proof.

Player on the spot: Linebacker Jeremiah Trotter. He's an annual favorite for the Pro Bowl, and for good reason: He's terrific at stopping the run. No one knows that better than the Giants' Barber, who said his club didn't have a chance in a Sept. 24 game in Philadelphia until it spread the field and, basically, took Trotter out of the mix. If Trotter is as tough on Barber as he was that afternoon, the Giants better hope Manning is on.

Area of concern: It's the defense against the run. I know they stopped the Giants in New York, and they checked Dallas at Texas Stadium. They still rank 26th in run defense, which could be a problem down the road. Yes, the Eagles are playing better than ever this season, but you don't go deep into the playoffs allowing opponents to average 4.5 yards a carry.

Interesting stat: The Eagles have a history of meeting division rivals in the playoffs. They've done it six times before this weekend, losing five. But the only time they played as a division winner -- which they are -- they won. They're also 5-0 in first-round playoff games under coach Andy Reid.

Will go to the Super Bowl if ... their defense plays as it has the past month. The team that couldn't get to the quarterback or stop the run suddenly is doing both. Plus, it's forcing key turnovers. That's the way it used to be around here when the only certainties in a New Year were the Mummer's Parade and the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle Seahawks

The skinny: It's difficult to figure these guys out. One week they look like mutts, getting kicked to the curb by San Francisco. Then they outplay San Diego for 59 minutes before clobbering Tampa Bay on the road. Now that's more like it. I don't see them winning the conference again, but they are playing better than they were a month ago.

OK, so that's not saying much, but there's too much talent here to discount them. Shaun Alexander is OK. So is quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Wide receiver Darrell Jackson continues to be bothered by a turf toe, but there are plenty of pass catchers to puncture the Dallas secondary -- and that's how Seattle advances to the next round of the playoffs.

They throw the ball.

I know it's tempting to feed Alexander, especially with last year's MVP recovered from a fractured foot that sidelined him early this season. But the Seahawks are crazy to feature him. Not now anyway. That's because their opponent is as good defending the pass as Indianapolis is at stopping the run.

Which means they stink.

Over the last month opposing quarterbacks shredded the Cowboys for 14 touchdown passes, and that group includes people like Michael Vick and Jon Kitna. If they can do that, what happens when Hasselbeck shows up? I don't know, but if I'm Mike Holmgren, I want to find out. Only this time paint Deion Branch's fingers with glue. If you're going to win a big game, you'd better catch the ball.

Remember that, Jerramy Stevens.

Of course, virtually everything we said about the Dallas defense goes for these guys, too. Seattle can't seem to stop anyone, with San Francisco averaging 403 yards in two wins and Arizona putting up 27 points and 345 yards. The Cowboys will have their openings, particularly with the secondary playing Name That Cornerback. My question: Is the Seahawks defense the past two games what we see here, or will it revert to midseason form? It makes a difference.

Player on the spot: Take your pick: Defensive backs Kelly Jennings or Jordan Babineaux. Neither is a starting cornerback, but each will assume that position Saturday in the wake of injuries that wiped out Kelly Herndon and Marcus Trufant. With Seattle producing seven sacks in its last seven games, the heat will be on these guys.

Area of concern: It has to be the secondary. Here we are talking about the holes in Dallas' pass defense when Seattle has three cornerbacks missing from the lineup. Now throw in safeties who couldn't stop Vincent Jackson from getting behind in the closing seconds of San Diego's come-from-behind victory, and you have a bona fide problem.

Intriguing stat: Nobody is worse defending first-down plays than the Seahawks. Opponents average 6.24 yards a try -- a huge difference from Miami's league-leading 4.43. If the Seahawks are to choke off Dallas, they can start on first down.

Will go to the Super Bowl if ... they can somehow rediscover the magic that drove them down the stretch in 2005. Frankly, I don't know how they do it. There are too many injuries, not enough defense and not enough momentum. Plus, they can't protect their quarterback. An injury-depleted offensive line allowed 49 sacks, the most of any playoff club. Loyalists have their fingers crossed, but the Seahawks should have started their push a lot earlier than the last game of the season. One win over Tampa Bay does not constitute a run.