Arizona and Colorado both eclipsed the Padres in 2007 -- the Rockies in the 13th inning of a one-game playoff for the wild-card berth -- with younger and homegrown teams that figure to keep improving. The Padres want to follow the same plan, but the improving crop in their farm system is not quite ready to be fully harvested. Three rookies -- INFs Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley and LHP Wade Leblanc -- are all given shots at making the Padres this spring.
ARRIVALS: RHP Mauro Zarate (waiver claim from Marlins), INF Luis Rodriguez (waiver claim from Twins), 2B Tadahito Iguchi (free agent from Phillies), CF Jim Edmonds (trade with Cardinals), UT Robert Fick (minor league free agent from Nationals), OF Jeff DaVanon (minor league free agent from Athletics), RHP Mark Prior (free agent from Cubs), LHP Randy Wolf (free agent from Dodgers), LHP Glendon Rusch (free agent from Mets), RHP Enrique Gonzalez (waiver claim from Washington), INF/OF Callix Crabbe (Rule 5 draft selection from Brewers), INF Edgar Gonzalez (minor league free agent from Cardinals), 1B Tony Clark (free agent from Diamondbacks).
DEPARTURES: CF Mike Cameron (free agent signed with Brewers), 2B Marcus Giles (released, signed with Rockies), INF Geoff Blum (free agent, signed with Astros), LF Milton Bradley (free agent, signed with Rangers), RHP Doug Brocail (free agent, signed with Astros), RHP Jack Cassel (non-tendered free agent, signed with Astros), OF Brady Clark (released, signed minor league deal with Mets), INF Morgan Ensberg (non-tendered free agent, signed minor league deal with Yankees), OF Jason Lane (non-tendered free agent, signed minor league deal with Yankees), RHP Brett Tomko (free agent, signed with Royals), OF Rob Mackowiak (released, signed with Nationals), OF Terrmel Sledge (contract sold to Japan's Nippon Ham Fighters).
SPRING FOCUS: Pick a left-fielder between Scott Hairston and rookies Chase Headley and Chad Huffman; sign a power hitter for the bench (switch-hitting 1B Tony Clark is the leading possibility); work with the pitchers and catchers on holding runners on (opponents stole 189 bases last season with a 91 percent success rate); decide on the back end of the rotation.
PROJECTED ROTATION:
1. RHP Jake Peavy
2. RHP Chris Young
3. RHP Greg Maddux
4. LHP Randy Wolf
5. RHP Mark Prior
Led by unanimous Cy Young Award winner Peavy, it's a solid rotation if everyone is healthy. But both Wolf and Prior are coming off surgery, and Prior isn't scheduled to be ready before May, although the Padres are optimistic given the early throwing rehab program on Prior's post-surgery shoulder.
Young (9-8, 3.12 ERA) has been spectacular at times and was 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA at the All-Star break last season. But the 6-foot-10 pitcher also concluded his first two seasons with the Padres with lower back problems. Maddux turns 42 in April, but he was still a 14-game winner in his Padres debut in 2007.
Which brings us to Peavy, who led the major leagues with a 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts last season and paced the National League with 19 wins.
Until Prior is healthy, the Padres could use LHP Shawn Estes (out all of 2007 following 2006 elbow reconstruction surgery), RHP Justin Germano (7-10 with a 4.46 ERA with the Padres last year), LHP Glendon Rusch or recently acquired RHP Enrique Gonzalez as their No. 5 starter. Given the medical history of Prior, Wolf and Young, the Padres will need at least two other starters waiting in the wings.
PROJECTED BULLPEN:
RHP Trevor Hoffman (closer)
RHP Heath Bell
RHP Cla Meredith
RHP Clay Hensley
RHP Kevin Cameron
LHP Joe Thatcher
LHP Justin Hampson
LHP Glendon Rusch
The bullpen was been the Padres' forte since they moved into Petco Park. The big question could be Hoffman (4-5, 2.98 ERA, 42 saves) and how he will rebound from his two blown saves in the Padres' final three games of 2007. Converting either save would have given the Padres a playoff berth. Hoffman's strength in the past has been his ability to bounce back from that rare blown save. But the game's all-time saves leader is also 41. Will there still be that necessary 10 mph difference between his fading fastball and changeup?
Bell (6-4, 2.02 ERA, 102 strikeouts in 93 2/3 innings over 81 appearances) had a breakthrough season as the setup man last year, and many believe he's the Padres' closer of the future. Behind him are a corps that gives hitters a lot of different looks from Meredith (5-6, 3.50 ERA in 80 games) with his near-submarine delivery to Thatcher (2-2, 1.29 ERA in 22 games) and his sidearm action. Cameron (2-0, 2.79 ERA in 48 games) was a Rule 5 find last year. Hensley and Rusch could also serve as spot starters, which given the health history of the starters could be a major factor. The Padres will again go with a seven-man bullpen.
PROJECTED LINEUP:
1. RF Brian Giles
2. 2B Tadahito Iguchi
3. CF Jim Edmonds
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
5. SS Khalil Greene
6. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
7. LF Scott Hairston
8. C Josh Bard
This is not a fast team. Last year, the Padres stole 55 bases. Giles is the best prospect to lead off, although he is coming off microfracture knee surgery. Iguchi does give the Padres a proven No. 2 hitter. Edmonds could slip in the order if his production again slips, as it has each of the past three seasons.
At Nos. 4-6, the Padres are a lot better than believed. Gonzalez and Greene combined to hit 90 doubles and 57 homers and drive in 197 runs last season. And Kouzmanoff hit .309 with 17 homers and 70 RBIs in the final 118 games after getting off to a 9-for-83 start. Hairston could be pressed by rookie prospect Chase Headley in left. Bard hit .406 with runners in scoring position last season.
PROJECTED RESERVES:
C Michael Barrett
INF/OF Callix Crabbe
INF Edgar Gonzalez
INF Craig Stansberry
INF Oscar Robles
OF Paul McAnulty
At the moment, the Padres' bench appears much weaker than it has been in recent seasons. But the Padres are likely to add at least one big right-handed bat, with the leading candidates being free agent Tony Clark (a switch hitter). He would also serve as the backup for Adrian Gonzalez at first to give him a rest against some tough left-handed pitchers. And should Chase Headley win the left field job, Hairston would become a super sub, playing all three outfield positions as a regular.
TOP ROOKIES: The Padres have three rookies who could make the opening day lineup -- Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli and LHP Wade Leblanc -- although the latter two, at least, will likely open the season with Class AAA Portland. Headley, the Texas League Player of the Year in 2007 (.330, 20 homers, 78 RBIs) as a third baseman, will get a shot at being the Padres' regular left fielder. Antonelli, the Padres' first-round draft pick in 2006, is also being converted from an infielder and is being prepped as the Padres' possible center fielder of the future. Like Antonelli, Leblanc moved from Class A Lake Elsinore to Class AA San Antonio last year.
MEDICAL WATCH:
RF Brian Giles (microfracture knee surgery in October 2007) is listed as doubtful for Opening Day, although he says he'll be ready. He is ahead of his rehab schedule and plans to play at least the final 10 days of the exhibition season.
RHP Clay Hensley (right labrum surgery in September 2007) was the only Padres pitcher not throwing off a mound at the start of spring training.
LHP Shawn Estes (elbow reconstruction surgery in June 2006) was throwing without pain from the mound in late February and could see action early in Grapefruit League play. He said the pain he experienced last summer when he was trying to come back is gone.
RHP Mark Prior (right shoulder surgery in April 2007) was on a limited throwing program early in spring training, although he was ahead of schedule. He hopes to join the Padres rotation by mid-May, but the club is still taking a conservative approach.
LHP Randy Wolf (left shoulder surgery in September 2007) remained on a rehab schedule early in spring training.
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