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Projecting the NCAA field
By Tony Mejia
SportsLine.com staff
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March 11, 2001
Final projections: 5:45 p.m. ET What's your opinion?
SportsLine's final projections of which teams got in and where they would be seeded in this year's NCAA Tournament nailed 64 out of the 65 entries and accurately predicted all four No. 1 seeds. 31 of the projected seeds were exactly right, while an additional 20 were within one of their actual seed.
Projecting the NCAA Tournament seeds
Conference (number of bids received)
| America East (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Hofstra |
| The scoop: Hofstra will take the longest winning streak in the nation (17 games)into the NCAA Touranment. The Pride pulled away from Delaware at home in the AEC final, allowing bubble teams everywhere to breathe a sigh of relief. |
| ACC (6) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Duke |
| Also in: North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest |
| The scoop: Duke emerges as the nation's top seed entering the NCAA Tournament, dismantling North Carolina. The Blue Devils will be the top seed in the East. North Carolina's grip on a No. 1 slips thanks to a 5-4 finish, dooming them to a No. 2 seed in the South behind Illinois. Maryland's semifinal loss to Duke, which left the Terps with nothing to hang their heads about, puts them in as a No. 3 seed. Wake Forest finished at .500 in conference play and but failed to improve its seeding in the ACC Tourney. Georgia Tech's win against Virginia in the first round of the ACC Tourney cements its bid. Losing to the Yellow Jackets for the third time this season may end up costing the Cavaliers a top-four seeding. |
| Atlantic 10 (3) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Temple |
| Also in:St. Joseph's Xavier |
| Bubble burst: Dayton |
| The scoop: Temple captured its second consecutive A-10 title, topping rival UMass to earn its 12th consecutive NCAA appearance. St. Joseph's, the regular season champ, will garner a seed in the top half of a regional bracket. Xavier will get into the tournament this season, though things have gotten too close for comfort in Cincinnati. The Muskies are one of the last teams in. |
| Big East (5) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Boston College |
| Also in: Syracuse, Notre Dame, Providence, Georgetown |
| Bubble burst: Connecticut, Villanova |
| The scoop: Pittsburgh's run in the Big Ten Tournament gave some bubble teams heart attacks, but in the end, succumbed to Boston College. The Eagles are now in the mix for a No. 2 seed, but will likely be shipped out west as the worst of the two-seeds. BC continues to be underestimated and hopes that trend re-appears in the NCAA Tournament. They have a chip on their shoulder and go out with something to prove every night out. Only four other conference teams will join BC in this year's field. UConn and Villanova will fall victim to the upsets of this year's conference tournaments and are headed to the NIT. |
| Big Sky (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Northridge |
| The scoop: Northridge takes a seven-game winning streak, a top-100 RPI and wins over UCLA and Wyoming on its resume into its first NCAA Tournament. The Matadors have a terrific inside-outside game with Markus Carr at the point and Brian Heinle inside. A scary first-round opponent. |
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Big South (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Winthrop |
| The scoop: Winthrop has over a week to get ready for the NCAAs and can use the rest. The Eagles played three overtimes over the course of two days in the Big South Tournament, overcoming Radford in the final. The Eagles, led by guards Roger Toxey and Pierre Wooten, needed a last second 3-pointer to send the game to overtime in a semifinal win against Liberty.
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| Big Ten (7) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Iowa |
| Also in: Michigan St., Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State |
| The scoop: Despite Michigan State's loss to Penn State in the quarterfinals, the Spartans claim a No. 1 seed in the Midwest. Illinois gets the nod over the Tar Heels in the South thanks to a stronger schedule and a better finish down the stretch. Iowa showed its spine in the league tournament, taking any decision out of the committee's hand by winning the automatic bid. With Luke Recker's return possible, the Hawkeyes probably earn a seed that won't bury them. Indiana's Big Ten Tournament run gets them a No. 4 seed. Ohio State and Wisconsin are safely in the Dance and should receive seeds in the 5-7 range. Penn State did what it had to do, winning two in the Big Ten tourney, and give the conference seven entries. |
| Big 12 (6) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Oklahoma |
| Also in: Iowa State, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State |
| The scoop: Oklahoma and Texas finished the season playing better than any of the other conference teams, and saw their seeds and RPIs skyrocket as a result. Tournament champ Oklahoma gains a No. 3 seed alongside regular season champ Iowa State. Texas merits an No. 4, leaving Kansas, which was inconsistent and injury-riddled down the stretch, as a No. 5 seed. Oklahoma State and Missouri will both get in as well. With a win over Texas Tech and a narrow loss to Texas in the Big 12 Tournament, OSU is in the field. Missouri, which beat Texas Tech and lost a tight one to Oklahoma, also gets in, with Kareem Rush's return providing the necessary boost.
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| Big West (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Utah State |
| Bubble burst: UC-Irvine |
| The scoop: Utah State used its staple- a stingy defense, to advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies, which will be a dangerous NCAA underdog, held Pacific to 38 points in the Big West final. They would have likely been an NIT team had they lost. Regular season champ UC-Irvine finished the conference season 15-1, but gave away their NCAA bid in the Big West tourney. The Anteaters struggled in the first round and were blown out by Pacific in the semifinals. A strength of schedule in the 200s makes them NIT-bound.
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| Colonial (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: George Mason |
| Bubble burst: Richmond |
| The scoop: The Colonial Tournament final was played at a snail's pace, with George Mason emerging with a 35-33 win. The Patriots could be joined by Richmond, the regular season champion who was deemed ineligible for the conference tournament due to its move to the Atlantic 10 next season. The Spiders finished the season 21-6 and are one of the best teams on the bubble. However, when compared to Xavier, Iowa, or Missouri, the Spiders will fall just short.
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| Conference USA (2) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Charlotte |
| Also in: Cincinnati |
| Bubble burst: Southern Miss, Memphis |
| The scoop: Charlotte spoiled things for many bubble teams by taking the Conference USA Tournament. The 49ers will be a dangerous NCAA team due to their dangerous talent and rebounding prowess. The Bearcats are also in, cementing their standing as an NCAA Tournament team by getting to the league final, a nice addition to their regular season title and solid RPI. Southern Miss, which shared the league title with the Bearcats and reached the C-USA semifinals, will be one of the last teams left out. The Golden Eagles have a quality win at Arkansas and a quality loss to Iowa State (69-67), but could have used a win over Charlotte in the semis to strengthen its case. |
| Ivy League (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Princeton |
| The scoop: Princeton utilized its offense to perfection and completed a season sweep of Penn, winning the Ivy League title for the first time since '98. The Tigers, under first-year coach John Thompson III, will give a top seed headaches with their patient ball control offense. |
| MAAC (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Iona |
| The scoop: The Gaels are back in the NCAAs for the second consecutive season, becoming the first MAAC team to win consecutive titles since LaSalle did it in the late 80s. With center Nakiea Miller finally reaching his lofty potential as a senior, point guard Earl Johnson providing a veteran floor general, and athletic junior Dyree Wilson filling it up in transition, Iona could make some noise in the NCAAs. |
| MAC (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Kent State |
| The scoop: Kent State will make its second NCAA Tournament in the last three years (and they deserved to be in last year), getting there after winning a competitive MAC Tournament. The Golden Flashes will pose matchup problems with their ball control offense and smart play. |
| Mid-Continent (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Southern Utah |
| The scoop: Southern Utah ended Valparaiso's seven-year run atop the Mid-Continent Conference to earn its first NCAA Tournament appearance. The Thunderbirds are led by gritty seniors Frederick House and Jeff Monaco, both of whom are superb shooters. |
| MEAC (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Hampton |
| The scoop: Hampton cruised through the MEAC Tournament, knocking off regular season co-champion South Carolina State in the final. The Pirates will make their first NCAA appearance and should avoid being a No. 16 seed. |
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Midwestern Collegiate (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Butler |
| Bubble burst: Detroit |
| The scoop: Butler took the rubber game of its season series with Detroit, taking the MCC Championship. Expect the tournament-savvy Bulldogs to be seeded somewhere in the 8-10 range. Their effort against Florida in last year's tournament will be motivation for whoever is matched against them. Detroit's loss in the regular season finale at Wisconsin-Milwaukee hampered their at-large hopes, as NCAA Committee chairman Mike Tranghese has stated that only mid-major regular season champions will be considered for at-large bids. The Titans' hopes are very dim. |
| Missouri Valley (2) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Indiana State |
| Also in: Creighton |
| The scoop: The nation's bubble teams took a hit with Creighton's loss to Indiana State in the MVC Tournament semifinals. Make no mistake, the Blue Jays are in. Creighton has plenty of quality wins and a terrific RPI. The MVC will continue its streak of multiple bids to the NCAAs, sending the Jays and Sycamores. Indiana State, like Creighton, is a patient, disciplined team that's deadly from the perimeter. The Sycamores will be making their second consecutive NCAA appearance. |
| Mountain West (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: BYU |
| Bubble burst: Wyoming, Utah |
| The scoop: BYU held off New Mexico in the conference final and will likely be the Mountain West's lone representative in the NCAAs. While Utah, BYU and Wyoming all tied for the league regular season title, the Cougars were the only one of the three to survive the semis. Utah bowed out against New Mexico and is an NIT lock. BYU, which was in the best position for an at-large bid entering the tournament, got past Wyoming in the semifinals and took any decision out of the committee's hands by knocking off the Lobos in the final. |
| Northeast (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Monmouth |
| The scoop: Monmouth came from 20 points down to pass St. Francis (N.Y.) and prevent the regular season champ Terriers from making their first NCAA appearance. With NEC Player-of-the-Year Rahsaan Johnson and hot shooting forward Gerry Crosby playing well, the Hawks will have some firepower to take with them when challenging their Goliath-like first-round opponent. |
| Ohio Valley (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Eastern Illinois |
| The scoop: Kyle Hill and Henry Domercant, the top scoring backcourt in the country, fueled a furious comeback in the OVC Final and a controversial goaltending call with three-tenths of a second left put the Panthers into the field over Austin Peay. Eastern Illinois is making its first NCAA appearance since 1992. |
| Pac-10 (5)
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Standings
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Stats
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| Frontrunner: Stanford |
| Also in: Arizona, UCLA, Southern California, California |
| The scoop: Stanford clinched the Pac-10 title and will get the No. 1 seed in the West region. The Wildcats are now a legitimate No. 2 seed, playing thier best ball of the season. UCLA, ending the regular season with a whimper at Washington, likely falls to a No. 4 seed. USC and Cal are talented teams worthy of seedings in the top half of a regional bracket. |
| Patriot League (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Holy Cross |
| The scoop: Holy Cross was taken into overtime by Navy, but rode clutch shooting and its home court advantage to the Patriot League championship. The Crusaders will be making their first NCAA appearance since 1993. |
| SEC (6) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Kentucky |
| Also in: Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama |
| Bubble burst: Georgia, Mississippi State |
| The scoop: Kentucky's impressive win over Ole Miss in the SEC Championship makes them a clear No. 2 seed. The Rebels are likely a No. 3 seed after their win over Florida and SEC Championship appearance. Florida's loss to Ole Miss in the semifinals took it out of the running for a No. 1 seed, though the Gators will end up with a top three-seed and be in good position to get back to the National Championship. Arkansas been tremendous down the stretch and will be a dangerous NCAA foe. After SEC Tournament first round wins, Alabama and Tennessee are in the field of 65. Georgia, despite its terrific RPI, is done after a one-point loss to LSU in the SEC Tourney's first round. The nation's top rated conference will get six bids.
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| Southern (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: UNC-Greensboro |
| The scoop: Charleston's at-large hopes died in its final regular season game at Davidson, which also cost it a share of the regular season title, won by East Tennessee State. The two division winners, ETSU and C of C, will be favored to meet in the league tournament final. |
| Southland (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Northwestern State |
| The scoop: McNeese State had won 15 consecutive games entering the Southland final and dominated the regular season. It won't get them anywhere. Northwestern State, led by University of Miami transfer Mike Byars-Dawson, won a close one in the championship game and are going to the NCAAs for the first time ever. |
| SWAC (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Alabama St. |
| The scoop: Alabama State, the SWAC regular season champ and top seed, overcame poor shooting to take out No. 3 seed Alcorn State, which had won five in a row, in the league final. The Hornets will make their first NCAA appearance ever. Despite the lowest overall RPI of any conference, the SWAC champs may avoid a trip to Dayton for the inaugural NCAA play-in game because their team RPI is better than a number of play-in candidates. |
| Sun Belt (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Western Kentucky |
| The scoop: Western Kentucky survived a pair of tough Sun Belt tournament tilts against Louisiana-Lafayette and South Alabama to earn an NCAA bid. The Hilltoppers were down to both in the final minutes but played perfectly down the stretch to pull away for victories. That kind of poise will serve them well in the NCAA Tournament. The Hilltoppers have a legitimate superstar in 7-1 center Chris Marcus, and will be a dangerous first round matchup. |
| TAAC (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Georgia State |
| The scoop: Georgia State will take a seven-game winning streak, 28 wins, and the title of "One of the teams you do not want to see in the first round" to the NCAAs. Lefty Driesell may be the subject of most of the talk, but versatile stars Shernard Long and Thomas Terrell be the ones fueling the Panthers. |
| West Coast (1) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Gonzaga |
| The scoop: Gonzaga took its inclusion in this year's NCAA Tournament out of the hands of the NCAA Selection committee by knocking of Santa Clara in the WCC final. The 'Zags 80-77 win allowed bubble teams everywhere to breath a huge sigh of relief, leaving another spot in the field up for grabs. Gonzaga may be deeper and more talented than its been in years past, which is a scary thought considering it has won five NCAA Tournament games in the last two seasons. |
| WAC (2) | Standings | Stats |
| In: Hawaii |
| Also in: Fresno St. |
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Bubble burst:
Tulsa, UTEP |
| The scoop: Fifth-seeded Hawaii completed an unlikely run through the WAC Tournament, knocking off three of the top four seeds to make its first NCAA appearance in seven years. The Warriors upset the top-seeded Fresno State Bulldogs in the semis, guaranteeing the WAC two bids. They then went out and won in overtime against second-seeded Tulsa, which hosted the tournament. Expect Hawaii to get no higher than a No. 13 seed. Fresno State has clinched its spot in the field with a successful season, highlighted by the regular season championship. |
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