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May 14, 1999 Computer geeks to decide college football's national champion
By Dennis Dodd
Last year's haze of numbers in the Bowl Championship Series rankings weren't confusing enough. Now BCS officials want to place a want ad for some pocket-protector-wearing numbers freak and offer him a spot in the BCS mathematical lineup.
Like a lot of us Bloom, also the service bureau director for the Southeastern Conference does his research by surfing the web. Actually, it's the best way to find a new ingredient for the BCS poll. Bloom is asking any interested parties to call, write or e-mail but remember this? Candidates are being asked to send Bloom the last four weeks of their regular-season rankings for the past five years. That eliminates the Spankys and Flymen of the world. You would hope. IN CASE YOU FORGOT, the BCS made its debut last year. It was proposed to conference commissioners by Bloom and SEC commissioner Roy Kramer as a way to more accurately guarantee a true 1 vs. 2 national championship bowl matchup. It used the standard polls --Associated Press and the coaches -- three computer rankings, a strength of schedule component and won-loss record to rank teams. There were valid criticisms that Bloom and Kramer promised to address in the off-season. One project concerns finding another computer ranking to average along with Jeff Sagarin's, the New York Times and the Seattle Times. Each of the three formulas had their mathematical quirks that favored some teams over others. The Pac-10, for example, strongly suggested the Seattle Times poll be used in the formula, perhaps because of an inherent bias toward West Coast teams. The BCS' worst nightmare occurred when Kansas State, UCLA and Tennessee all went into the first week of December undefeated, basically leaving the final call up to the computers. The BCS worked because Kansas State and UCLA lost, allowing Tennessee and Florida State to vault to the top as consensus 1-2 teams. "The formula is definitely being looked at," Bloom said. "We're looking at adding other polls. We think the BCS rankings will be better. We think we're doing things that make the BCS more reputable." Bloom and Kramer are taking other steps toward credibility. The outspoken Sagarin caused some consternation when he predicted that Kansas State would be left out of the Fiesta Bowl even if it won the Big 12 title game to finish 12-0. Sagarin changed his strength of schedule prediction a day before the game, essentially admitting he made an error. "He promises he won't do any predictions," Bloom said.
Perhaps the most logical computer addition would be to add the venerable Dunkel Index. Started by Dick Dunkel Sr. in 1929, the rating system at least has a history. That's more than can be said for the American College Football page on the World Wide Virtual Library. There are 73 different rating systems on that page alone. Even if a new computer component is added, there is still the uncomfortable issue of the American Football Coaches Association. The AFCA controls the coaches' poll, which awards the national championship to the BCS bowl winner. When Kansas State was cruising along at No. 1 in the coaches' poll but No. 3 in the BCS poll there was the possibility that the coaches No. 1 team could not win the national championship. But things worked out. The BCS' next night of reckoning is Jan. 4 at the Sugar Bowl. Ricky could lose that numberIt took 22 years for Ricky Williams to break Tony Dorsett's Division I-A career rushing record. There are at least three players in line who could surpass Williams in the next couple of years. Heisman favorite Ron Dayne of Wisconsin is only 1,717 yards away from Williams' career mark of 6,279. He probably has the best chance considering Dayne came back for his senior season and has averaged 1,521 in his first three seasons. Texas Tech's Ricky Williams still has two more years to play. If he stays in school, Williams would have to average 1,900 yards in his final two seasons to surpass the "other" Ricky. The dark horse is Miami of Ohio's Travis Prentice. The nation's top returning rusher (1,787 yards) is already on pace to become the NCAA's all-time leading scorer. He needs 2,343 yards to break Williams' mark. That might sound ludicrous but consider that Miami (10-1 last season) was the best program not to go to a bowl. Prentice has not lost a fumble in his last 684 carries and only one in 784 career carries. If you haven't heard much about him, it's not surprising. Even the school's own Heisman hype machine calls him "our football version of Miami basketball All-American Wally Szczerbiak." A late slap at Texas TechLost in the haze of recent NCAA court duels is this item from the Texas State Supreme Court. It looks like the NCAA will be able to take retroactive action against Texas Tech for using an ineligible player all the way back in 1996. It was three years ago when fifth-year senior offensive lineman Casey Jones was cleared to play by his academic advisors. One problem, they were wrong, which meant Tech was using an ineligible player. Jones obtained a temporary injunction and was allowed to play that year. His case eventually was part of the academic scandal that landed Tech on probation. Even though Jones is gone, Tech is on probation and already forfeited games from the '96 season on its own, the NCAA is pursuing the case. The state court ruled a week ago that the NCAA can try to overturn the injunction even though the case is long over. "We're just kind of standing on the sidelines to see what happens," said Shane Lyons, Tech's associate athletic director for compliance. "They just don't want that type of record on the books so that they can't enforce their rules and regulations." Don't expect the NCAA to apply any more penalties. This is a case of the NCAA fighting for its ability to enforce penalties without court interference. Lots of green ... and growingMore evidence that Division I-A is a growth industry: For a while there has been talk that the Sun Belt Conference might join I-A in football. Conference members Southwestern Louisiana, Louisiana Tech and Arkansas State play football. Don't be surprised if the Sun Belt purses North Texas, Middle Tennessee State and Central Florida to form a six-team football league. Middle Tennessee starts I-A play this year. North Texas is a member of the Big West. Central Florida is an independent. That might mean the new Mobile Alabama Bowl could sign a deal with the Sun Belt. It seemed obvious that the new bowl left an opening when it signed only a one-year deal with the WAC. Conference USA's No. 2 team is committed for the next three years. It would make perfect sense for the Sun Belt champion to go bowling in Mobile every year. Especially if South Alabama, as has been discussed, moves up to I-A and joins the conference. ESPN analyst Mike Gottfried helped organize the bowl. His brother Joe is athletic director at USA. Quick hitsFootball freaks planning in advance to go to the Sugar Bowl might be floored by this factoid: Rooms are going for $400 a night for the Jan. 4 BCS national championship game. Why? It's New Orleans, it's the millennium and it's the national championship. The Big Easy is supposedly the No. 3 destination in the country for revelers to celebrate the new century ... Arkansas recruiting coordinator Fitzgerald Hill has a lengthy recorded greeting on his office phone. It concludes like this "... In regards to Razorback football please note; the best is yet to come."
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