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For competitions within the United States, "junior" is a skill level, but for international competition, it's an age level, for skaters who are at least 13 but not yet 19 years of age by the previous July 1. International senior competitors must be at least 15, although there's an exception made to allow medalists from the World Junior Championships to compete at the senior level, even if they are under the regular age limit.

This is why Nam, who competed as a senior at the U.S. Championships last year, was not old enough even to compete as a junior internationally last season. Hughes just squeaked in under the deadline, won a silver medal at the World Junior Championships and now competes as a senior internationally.

This year, Nam is making her debut on the international junior circuit in hopes of qualifying for senior competition through the same loophole. She's joined by Stacey Pensgen, who also competed at the senior national championships last year; Sara Wheat, Sasha Cohen, Jennifer Kirk, and Elizabeth Kwon, the top four finishers from last year's national junior division; and Deanna Stellato, who won the U.S. novice title last season and who will be moving all the way up to the senior division at nationals this season.

This is probably the most talented "crop" of junior ladies in years, and for all of them it's important to have a good showing at their fall Junior Grand Prix competitions as the first step in establishing themselves as contenders for the 2002 Olympic Games.

Skaters at this age and skill level often develop rapidly from one season to the next. Tara Lipinski went from a weak fifth-place finish at the World Junior championships at the age of 13 to being senior World Champion at 14. Oksana Baiul hadn't been considered good enough to compete internationally at all as a junior before she won her World title at the age of 15 in her first season as a senior competitor.

Conversely, skaters who are at the top of the heap as juniors face a treacherous climb on the way to success at the senior level. For every Michelle Kwan or Tara Lipinski who makes it to the top, there are probably at least a dozen skaters who were once considered "hot stuff" as juniors but who never achieve even moderate success at the senior level.

The statistics bear this out: Of the 39 ladies who won medals at the U.S. junior or novice championships in the years between 1991 and 1998, only three have thus far gone on to medal at the senior national level: Nam, Lipinski and Lisa Ervin. Excluding current competitors, perhaps a quarter of the novice and junior medalists have never even qualified to skate at the senior national championships at all.

What happened? Some of these skaters have struggled with injuries or adjusting to growth spurts and the changes in their body shapes at puberty. Others have dropped out of competitive skating after becoming more interested in college or boyfriends. Some have quit as a result of family, coaching, or financial problems.

But the biggest problem facing skaters making the transition from juniors to seniors often boils down to just this: an inability to learn a complete set of triple jumps, which is vital to success at the international level.

Lipinski, of course, zoomed through her competitive career, peaking at just the right time to collect U.S., world, and Olympic titles before retiring from competition at the ripe old age of 15.

Ervin's history was somewhat different. After winning national novice and junior titles back-to-back in 1990 and 1991, Ervin placed fourth in seniors at the 1992 U.S. Championships and second in 1993 -- at the age of 15 -- with a sparkling performance that some fans remember as the highlight of the entire competition among generally dismal performances from the rest of the field. But Ervin not only failed to learn the more difficult jumps, she lost the triples she already had as she struggled with her weight and body changes. She finished seventh at the 1994 nationals, and by 1995 she was out of the sport entirely.

Like Ervin, Nam won her medal at senior nationals more as a result of weak performances from the rest of the field than by her own technical strength. Her long program at nationals included only three cleanly landed triple jumps: a flip and two toe loops. (She didn't attempt a lutz, her loop had a heavily two-footed landing, and her salchow was under-rotated by half a turn.) Nam is an exceptionally strong spinner, has good presentation skills, and seems to be a determined competitor, but she also needs a full repertoire of triple jumps if she wants to distinguish herself in international competition and achieve any long-term success in the sport. If she can overcome her jump problems, she might move to the top ranks of skating as quickly as Baiul or Lipinski did. If not, she might instead fade from the scene as quickly as Ervin.

Nam has started out the new season with a second-place finish at the Junior Grand Prix competition held this past weekend in Montreal. This was actually not a bad result for her, but in some respects it's a disappointment because she struggled with her jumps through the practices and competition and landed most of her triples on two feet, a serious error that must be penalized by the judges. It seems she is not progressing technically as fast as many people had hoped.

Nam's surprise medal last year might turn out to be more of a curse than a blessing for her because it has given her such a burden of unrealistic expectations. Too many people were willing to prematurely anoint her as the next champion on the basis of only one performance at one competition that was not, in itself, of championship caliber. This year, she is expected to skate like a champion, to land all her jumps, to win all her international competitions. This is hardly fair to Nam. She is a wonderfully talented young skater and ought to be appreciated for what she is rather than judged for failing to live up to a fantasy.

Wheat, the reigning U.S. junior champion, is in the same boat. At two non-qualifying competitions early this season, Wheat couldn't land anything more difficult than a triple toe loop and salchow -- the two easiest triple jumps -- in programs marred by multiple falls. In one practice session at the Middle Atlantic championships last month, she was seen making at least a dozen attempts at a triple lutz without coming close to completing any of them. Wheat might still have a long and successful competitive career ahead of her, of course, but some people are already muttering about the "curse" of the U.S. junior ladies' title.

After a ninth-place finish at last season's nationals, Pensgen has no such burden of expectations. Her demon is inconsistency: Her jumps are high and powerful when she lands them, which is not often enough. The triple lutz is her best jump, but she sometimes fails to land much else in her programs.

Judging by last year's skating, Kirk is probably a more advanced and consistent jumper than Cohen or Kwon, but she is still so small and slightly built that she has an almost fragile appearance on the ice, and her skating overall doesn't yet exhibit the power one expects of a senior lady. All three of these girls have yet to confront the "puberty monster," and no one knows whether their skating will be helped or hindered when physical maturity eventually arrives.

Stellato might be in for the easiest transition to seniors of this entire group. At 16, most of her growth is probably behind her, and at last year's nationals, her jumping looked very solid.

Hughes has already established herself as a senior competitor with a complete set of triples, but she's not without her own technical faults. Last year she showed not only a wild "flutz", or wrong-edge entry, on her lutz, but when doing it in combination with a double toe loop she also had a tendency to badly pre-rotate the second jump -- what skaters call a "toe axel." It's hard to say how much these flaws will harm her: Lipinski, after all, also had less than ideal jump technique, but it didn't hurt her.

For now, it's impossible to predict which of these skaters -- if any -- is going to be the next Kwan or Lipinski. But it certainly seems likely that this group will dominate the top 10 and perhaps even the top five at the U.S. Championships this season. The youngsters are definitely coming, and the current generation of older competitors had better watch out.

Nicole Bobek's best skating is now almost five years behind her. Angela Nikodinov had a shot last year to establish herself among the elite, but blew one opportunity after another. Amber Corwin and Brittney McConn likewise had the door open in front of them last year and failed to walk through it. Last year, they were wanna-bes. This year, they're on the verge of becoming has-beens, with perhaps only one more chance to salvage their careers before the younger generation takes over for good.