Rob Johnson has shown some running ability, but the Bills need him to perform with his arm. (AP)

"There's a lot of young blood at the position now," said Kansas City offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. "There are a lot of plusses and minuses, I guess, to the situation. Let's face it, some of these guys are going to fail. Some of them are going to succeed. But it's exciting to see so many young quarterbacks moving up all at once. And it's fun to guess which of them will be good players."

From the aforementioned group of 13, just two starters, Tim Couch of Cleveland and the St. Louis Rams' Kurt Warner, solidified their status in 1999. The smart money says that several more of the young quarterbacks will separate themselves from the pack in 2000. The SportsLine.com choice as the guy who makes the most progress: Rob Johnson of the Buffalo Bills.

Johnson, 27, won out in a close call over Charlie Batch of Detroit, Tampa Bay's Shaun King and Donovan McNabb of Philadelphia. Until his offense began deteriorating around him, the Bengals' Akili Smith also merited serious consideration.

OK, so in choosing Johnson we've stretched the guidelines with which we operated over the first two years of this series. Those very unofficial parameters suggested that a "breakout" player have three or fewer seasons of league experience. And Johnson, a onetime Newport Beach surfer bum who has yet to find nearby Lake Erie worthy of his boogie board escapades, is entering his sixth NFL season.

But Johnson, who started the regular-season finale for the Bills last year and then the playoff game that Buffalo lost at Tennessee in the controversial "Miracle of Music City" contest, has just nine career starts and has thrown just 126 passes. So while he has been around since 1995, when the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted him in the fourth round, Johnson is still in the nascent stages of his career as a starter.

Don't be surprised, however, if the strong-armed Johnson becomes a Pro Bowl regular, and in the not-too-distant future.

Said current Cleveland Browns coach Chris Palmer, the former quarterbacks tutor in Jacksonville, who got to work one year with Johnson: "It's all there. He can throw every pass. And he's a lot more mobile than people think, too."

Indeed, he flashed his surprising ability to buy time in the pocket while leading the Bills to what should have been a game-winning field goal in last year's playoff loss at Adelphia Coliseum. But the reason the Bills shipped first- and fourth-round choices in the 1998 draft to Jacksonville to get Johnson, then rewarded him with a five-year, $25 million contract had little to do with his feet. At 6-feet-4 and 212 pounds, Johnson is a prototype pocket passer, a player who can stretch the field vertically and one who should benefit from a solid supporting cast.

Early in his career, Johnson was labeled by some as being a player who didn't work hard enough at his craft, a Valley Boy who figured he could get by with physical tools and only a modest nod to the cerebral side of the game. Buffalo coaches regarded that as a bum rap and so does Johnson, who is taking his job more seriously than ever these days.

"There was a time," Johnson acknowledged, "when I didn't necessarily feel wanted (in Buffalo). I wasn't playing, Doug Flutie was the main guy, and I wasn't sure if I would ever get the chance to play much in a Bills uniform. Yeah, there was a time when I thought they'd trade me. And if they didn't, I thought I might have to force some kind of movement."

But with Flutie struggling late last season, and his teammates beginning to take a jaundiced view of a quarterback who rarely accepted much blame himself, Bills coach Wade Phillips changed his starter for the season finale against Indianapolis, and Johnson performed well in an upset victory. Hanging tough behind a makeshift offensive line in the playoff game, and throwing to receivers with whom he hadn't worked much, Johnson played well enough for the Bills to win.

Moving to quell any controversy, Phillips announced during the offseason that Johnson would go to camp as the starter. The matter became academic when Flutie sustained a groin injury that has sidelined him for the entire preseason. Johnson, who lost 10 pounds during a weeklong bout with a stomach virus early in camp, doesn't agree with the notion he won the job by default.

"Look, the coaches made a gutsy move by switching quarterbacks so late last season," Johnson said. "But I think that I've done well enough in camp to have earned their faith in me."

The former Southern California star, who was pursued by several other teams before the Bills pulled the trigger on the '98 trade, figures to build on that faith, and his own confidence, this season. As usual, the typically unspectacular Bills enter the season as a solid playoff contender. And despite the departure of all-time wide receiver Andre Reed, the offensive weaponry is very explosive. Coordinator Joe Pendry, who has always favored a physical ground attack, over the past couple of years has begun to spread the field more.

If young receivers like Eric Moulds, Peerless Price and rookie Avion Black hold up their end, the quarterback should post glittering numbers. And while the Bills are not as splashy as the Colts, one AFC defensive coordinator suggested Buffalo might be a bit deeper offensively.

"They'll go as far as (Johnson) takes them," said the coordinator. "He's going to be interesting to watch as the season goes on. He's never seemed to lack for confidence. Get some snaps into him, and some early wins, and he could really be something special."