In the United States, especially, it may be hard to remember this down-to-earth reality about the Nagano Games: The American figure skaters are strong, for sure, but they are by no means guaranteed anything.

Think Americans Michelle Kwan and Tara Lipinski will decide the gold medal? That is likely. But there is no reason Russia's Maria Butyrskaya can't challenge Kwan and Lipinski for the top spot.

Don't look for Tara Lipinski, Michelle Kwan and Nicole Bobek to sweep all the medals in Nagano. (Allsport)

Let go of the myth, too, that Todd Eldredge of the U.S. is the gold-medal favorite in the men's competition. He must compete with Elvis Stojko of Canada, a terrific jumper, and 1995 European champion Ilia Kulik.

THE OLYMPICS ARE THE DEFINING MOMENT for these athletes in Japan. And unlike a hockey player competing in a round-robin format, a skater lives that perilous existence of knowing one poor performance in the short or long program can mean doom.

Scott Hamilton, who broke America's 24-year drought in men's skating when he won the gold medal in 1984, used the "minefield" analogy as he looked ahead.

"There's so much that can happen, with that much difficulty in the programs. It can be like a minefield. It comes down to who turns in a special performance and who's got the rest of the package to fill the thing out," said Hamilton, who will join Verne Lundquist and Tracy Wilson on CBS' figure skating announcing team.

Eldredge won the gold medal at the U.S. Figure Skating Championships in Philadelphia. But there were many observers who felt Michael Weiss, the second-place finisher, was the real winner.

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Weiss landed a quad lutz, a jump Hamilton never thought he would see in competition. His landing was not perfect, but it was close. In Nagano, Eldredge will have to find a missing aura to help him stay ahead of Weiss and compete with Stokjo and the charismatic Kulic.

"Eldredge's program was exciting," Hamilton said. "But it's not up to the standard you would hope, with that much athletic ability. I liked that program when I first saw it. But I thought he was really just trying to skate clean."

SUCH IS THE CHALLENGE on the men's side. In these times, they are making triple-jumps routine. There is so much athleticism on the men's side, Hamilton called it "ridiculous." The winner will have to attempt and land quadruple jumps and combine that execution with a sense of artistry.

"Now, it's like if you don't have a quad, if you don't have a triple-triple, then why show up," Hamilton said.

More than any time, the difference between winning and losing will come down to which skater -- or which pairs or dance team -- balances the high standards of athleticism with grace and artistry.

When it comes to pairs and dance, the Russians seem to have that gift mastered. When they won the European dance title in mid-January, Oksana Grishuk and Evgeny Platov secured their 21st straight victory. Their run includes a set of world titles and the Olympic gold four years ago in Lillehammer.

Russian pairs team Elena Berezhnaya and Anton Sikharulidze are high above the competition. (Reuters)

As the pairs event unfolds, there will be sentimental eyes in America cast toward Jenni Meno and Todd Sand, the husband-and-wife veterans who had to skip their free skate program at the U.S. nationals after Meno injured her ankle in practice. This has been a quiet year for the pair. Meno and Sand have kept competition and travel to a minimum. Doing so has afforded them time to avoid burnout and recover from a set of nagging injuries.

Still, the Russians have the opportunity to dominate in pairs -- as always. A number of observers expect European champions Elena Berezhnaya and Anton Sikharulidze to compete with Oksana Kazakova and Artur Dmitriev.

THERE SHOULD BE FASCINATION with Berezhnaya and Sikharaulidze, if only for what they have overcome. Berezhnaya nearly died in 1996. She required brain surgery after she was hit in the head by the skate blade of her former partner.

There will be fascination, too, with Kwan. Her performance in Philadelphia, with eight perfect scores in her long program and six in her short program, put her in a new place. With her inherently elegant style, Kwan is rightfully being tapped as a skater for the ages.

That kind of distinction probably requires a gold medal in Nagano.

"This is my dream... In my mind, the Olympics is, like, a wonderland, a Disneyland. It's something I've always dreamed of," Kwan said.

In Philadelphia, she spoke of "flying" through her free skate. It looked that way.

Still, travel on the Olympic ice -- air or otherwise -- can be riddled with bumps and divots. That is why skaters from the world come together every four years, to see if old patterns might shift when the stakes are at their highest.