This is the lowest total for a Nuggets game all season, and it's not close. The two games in this series that went under 205 were both total blowouts in which starters were pulled way early and Denver barely scored. Not sure that will be the case in a Game 7. MIN playoff games average 209. Nugs avg 207.5. Nugs at home avg 203. Both teams have truly elite scorers. Nuggets won't shoot that poorly again at home with a repeat at stake. Scored 112+ in 3 straight vs that tough MIN defense. Only 2 of 11 DEN playoffs games are under this and 2 of their last 27 overall. Only 2 of 10 MIN playoff games under this and 2 of last 15 overall

The Rockies are 6-18 on the road as we creep towards Memorial Day. Decent sample size. Their bad bullpen is taxed after allowing 10 and then 14 runs to a Gigantes outfit that wasn't scoring on anyone else these days. Giants send their best starter to the mound against a Colorado starter with a 6.13 ERA. Giants have been very solid at home and also have beat up on teams below .500 - their problem is they can't compete with anyone any good

The games at the Garden have featured less defense and more scoring than the ones in IND. The Knicks have played at greater pace and put up way more shots, trying to put on a show and keep up with the run-and-gun road team. Knicks defense further compromised now. Brunson can't have another stinker like in Game 6. My fear is this somehow becomes a blowout but I'm willing to take that risk. Home team has dominated this series but with NYK injuries I can't get to window on them and IND can't cover on road in this series. Thought they would be an over series going in. Game has potential to be playing in the 240s, especially if we get a hot first qtr

Seth Brown isn't having a great season and the A's are in a freefall but Brown's splits vs Brady Singer are obscene - 6-for-10 with a hat trick of HRs, a handful of teammates have hit Singer well, too, in a limited sample size and Oakland is due for a bounce back game hitting the baseball. This pronounced funk won't last forever (though neither would their hot start). I like him to do a little damage today.

One of these teams is playing with renewed confidence getting back more healthy players and taking 11 of their last 15 to get firmly back in the mix ... The other is Toronto. And they send out a starter who is perfectly capable of melting down on the mound and being shelled in an inning or two. Vegas isn't sure what to make of this but I'll say Cavale is the better starter and the Ryas keep up their run of timely hits and the Blue Jays fulfill their manifest destiny of getting another mid skipper whacked before the All Star Game; one area in which they excel. They certainly don't hit or play with any sustained fight

So he's looking like the premier power hitter in the AL once again and he loves hitting in this ballpark and his splits vs Flexen are strong and Soto seems to be bouncing back into form making this lineup even more formidable. I don't think we see this number at this value much moving forward. Residue of that slow start that I will grab

These two teams don't have much in common. The Yankees starter has been really good, the Pale Hose pen has seen plenty of usage. NYY among the hottest teams in baseball and now have Judge going, too. Not going to overthink this one.

Burnes has been great for the Birds in a lot of ways, but he hasn't been providing a ton of length. Called off the dogs after 85 pitches last time out against Toronto and he struggled to get to the 7th inning. This feels like a perfect spot to shove against a struggling Seattle lineup. O's going to 6-man rotation so short in the pen. Have to ride their ace for at least 6 today and I wouldn't bet against him finishing 7 knowing he is up against another ace in George Kirby.

Luka is on a mission and even with Kyrie still too much of a facilitator/passenger and Mavs are clearly the superior team. If hey made a few foul shots in Game 4 series already over. I don't see this experienced backcourt blow a chance to close it out at home. SGA can have all the lay-ups he wants; OKC's starting lineup change kinda backfired, Mavs rotating bigs (Lively and Gafford) are a problem. Jalen Williams 41% from field in series; Dort 31%,, Giddy -5. OKC still missing one piece to win a series like this and losses at home will come back to bite them here. When Mavs beat you at home by 12 with Luka and Kyrie only totaling 43, you're in trouble.

We have been backing Royals with Lugo on bump all season, as the AL can't really seem to figure him out. He gets a faltering A's lineup here and while I think Ross Stripling is generally underrated, Sally got him twice in 7 ABs and A's pen might be running on fumes. Royals are 6-2 in Lugo's 8 starts in April/May, only losses were to teams leading division at the time (BAL and MIL) and all 6 wins by 2 runs or more. KC has +12 RD in his last 4 starts. A's in 2-11 rut, losing 9 of those games by 2+ runs. Royals are stout at home

Similar play to Fri night - Nats are fading and Gore coming off a start where the manager rode him pretty hard against a lineup that is red hot and knows him pretty well. Phils 17-8 at home and 8 of their last 10 wins are by 2 runs or more. Nats lineup lagging (I bet James Wood gets the call to MLB by Memorial Day). Nats have .594 OPS in May (worst in MLB) with a .201/.293/.301 slashline. I don't love Sanchez on the mound but figure he can battle against this group.