Jose Butto's worst start of the season came against the Cardinals, but he also managed to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing four earned runs. That qualifies as his second shortest start of the season, as he's pitching six innings in every other start except when he walked five Dodgers. His workload has consistently been at 90-plus pitches, and if you're throwing 90 pitches, you're likely to be pitching into the sixth inning. I like taking Overs on both 15.5 outs and 4.5 strikeouts today at affordable prices.

Luis Gil is walking a ton of batters this year, but an incredibly low .224 BABIP plus a very high K rate has helped him deliver a 3.19 ERA thus far. But now he's up against the team that strikes out at the lowest rate in MLB at 6.47 Ks per nine innings. Only two pitchers in the last two weeks struck the Astros out six times, and they got that sixth K in the seventh and eighth inning of their starts. I think Gil needs to pitch into the seventh inning to get over this total, so this is a nice value on this prop.

Quinn Priester has been done in by the long ball in two of his three starts, but I don't think he'll have to worry about that much against an Angels team without many power threats, especially as the highest OPS against righties on the active roster this year has been Luis Rengifo's .771 (min. 20 PAs). The Angels have scored just one run in three straight (and four of their last five), and this game is juiced to Under 8 runs even though a 5.91 ERA is on the other side. I think we're getting the Priester Under here at a discount.

Cole Ragans is all good after being removed from his last start with a calf injury, which was diagnosed as just cramping and should not limit him in this outing. That means we should expect a gem from the Royals ace, as the Brewers have hit just .198/.304/.326 against lefties as a team. I'm going for more value on the K prop here rather than Over 16.5 outs, as the Brewers strike out more than 25% of the time against lefties and Ragans has reached seven Ks in four of five starts where he's thrown more than 76 pitches, but I think both are strong plays that have a great chance of hitting.

Tyler Anderson hasn't given up more than three runs in any game this year, but a 4.77 xERA vs. a 2.23 ERA and his .194 BABIP tells you how fortunate he's been to avoid a meltdown so far. It could come today against the Pirates, a team with a poor offense that actually turns into an above-average unit (106 OPS+) against lefties. If Anderson continues to struggle with walks, a lineup that's solid against southpaws is going to eventually chase him early once batted balls start falling. The Angels have used just two relievers in each of their last two games as well, so there should be no issue going to the 'pen as early as needed.

Nick Lodolo has been excellent after getting a late start on the season, but this will be his toughest matchup to date. The Orioles pound lefties to the tune of a 133 OPS+, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at Great American Ball Park. That could result in an approach from Lodolo where he's trying to do too much out of the zone and posts a line similar to his one mediocre outlier this season, when he walked three against Philly and lasted just five innings despite throwing 98 pitches. I'll trust Baltimore's offense to get him out early today.

This is a big price to pay in this prop, but I think it's worth it. Peralta would've topped this number in five of six starts had he not been prematurely ejected in his last outing just one out shy after only 66 pitches, and in the one outlier he allowed five runs while walking five. I don't see a start like that today against a Cubs lineup that is much worse against righties with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. Plus, the Brewers only got three innings from their starter yesterday so they'll be counting on length from their ace. I expect six innings from Peralta in this matchup.

Two lefties take the mound in this game with Matthew Liberatore making a spot start, but he's unlikely to throw many pitches in this one as his pitch count has been limited in the bullpen. That's unfortunate for the Cards, as the White Sox are far worse against southpaws and their one notable lefty reliever has pitched in two straight, likely making him unavailable. The Cards are also much worse against southpaws, and lefty Crochet has pitched far better than his 5.97 ERA suggests. He could have his longest start of the year here with the White Sox using seven relievers in yesterday's extra-innings win as well. Putting a half-unit on the woeful ChiSox getting the win today.

The Twins' win streak is up to 12 games, and while the lineup has cut the strikeouts down over the last few games, the team is still averaging more than one K per inning. It also hits more than 100 points of OPS better against lefties than righties. That bodes well for Cooper Criswell to stick around long enough in this game to get to four Ks, a small ask for any starting pitcher. Criswell's K rate in the majors this year hasn't been great, but he has a respectable 8.3 K/9 career rate in Triple-A. In this matchup, I think he should be favored to get to four Ks.

The Angels are 2-7 in their last nine games, and even though the lineup lost Mike Trout for the foreseeable future, their pitching might be an even bigger problem. Griffin Canning hasn't been quite as bad as his 7.45 ERA suggests, but he hasn't been great, and in particular he hasn't managed to pitch long into his six starts. In fact, if he hits this Over, it would be his longest start of the season, coming on the road against a very good Guardians team. We also have weather implications with rain the forecast that adds at least some potential for Canning's start to end early.

Alek Manoah makes his return to the majors after a gem in his last Triple-A start, but one start can't outweigh the struggles of his previous four rehab starts plus his awful 2023 season. The Nationals score more runs per game than the Jays already and have been the hotter team over the last 10 games, plus they've had the more productive bullpen and a starter who has pitched well at the major-league level this year. The Nats should be favored rather than being considered 50/50 at most books, and they definitely shouldn't be 'dogs at FanDuel.

John Means takes the mound for his season debut, and while he's struggled during his rehab work, I'm more interested in attacking the pitcher on the other side. Andrew Abbott's strikeout rate is down this season after his quality rookie campaign, and he's managed more than four Ks only twice in six starts. He's up against an outstanding Orioles lineup that has posted a 134 OPS+ against southpaws while striking out in less than 23% of plate appearances. At that rate, a pitcher needs to face at least 26 batters to rack up six Ks, something Abbott did three times in 21 starts last year and none this year. In a tough matchup, I don't think it's very likely he'll get the chance today.

The Angels took the series opener with surprising ease, but I'll back Cleveland, a team that's 16-7 in games decided by multiple runs, to bounce back today against Reid Detmers, a talented lefty who has been lit up in his last two starts. The Guardians excel against southpaws (118 OPS+ vs. 99 against righties), so I expect Detmers' tough run to continue. The Angels lineup just isn't very threatening without Mike Trout, and Ben Lively owns a 2.30 ERA and 19:3 K:BB in his three starts. I'd be surprised if this money line doesn't close higher.

Ozzie Albies has a 14-game hitting streak going, and he's gotten 2+ bases 11 times in that stretch with eight doubles and three other two-hit games. He gets to face a pitcher in Gavin Stone with massive righty/lefty splits, holding the former to a .504 OPS (59 PAs) while the latter lights him up for a .923 OPS (50 PAs). That's good news for the switch-hitting Albies, who owns an .895 OPS against righties this year. We shouldn't be getting plus odds here.

JP Sears got smoked in his last start in Baltimore but had been pitching well prior to that outing, with just one run allowed in 17.1 innings over his previous three starts. He has a fantastic matchup today in the friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum against the Marlins, who have just a .570 OPS against lefties this year. They have just one hitter with better than a .650 OPS in more than 10 plate appearances against southpaws, so there just aren't many trouble spots in this lineup for Sears to give up three earned runs.