I have the Royals winning 59 percent of simulations with Brady Singer vs. Joe Ross which implies a money line price of -144. Lock it in at -120 on FanDuel.

I make the Rangers 61 percent winners, which implies a money line price of -156 in this matchup with Andrew Heaney vs. Alex Wood. Oakland has played well so far but they're getting too much respect here with Alex Wood on the mound who has really struggled with his sinking fastball and changeup this season.

I played the Dodgers (-105) on Superbook. I make LA 55 percent winners, which implies this line should be -122. 40-year old Charlie Morton is vulnerable to left-handed hitters, and the Dodgers have a few of the best in the game. Back the Dodgers as short home favorites.

I like the Red Sox at -104 (FanDuel) or -105 (Caesars) as I have Boston winning 55 percent of simulations, which implies a money line price of -122.

I have the Cubs winning 57 percent of simulations in this matchup with Shota Imanaga vs. José Buttó, which implies a money line price of -133. Buttó has largely over performed so far as his xwOBA is over 60 points worse than the actual wOBA, and the hard hit rate is at 50 percent. I'm on the Cubs.

I'm on the OVER at the opening number of 8.5 on DraftKings and Caesars. Both teams are top 5 offenses against right-handed pitching, with low strikeout and high walk rates. With temps in the 90's and winds blowing out this should play like a midsummer game in Baltimore. I'm on the OVER while a 5-4 game cashes a ticket. This total should be 9.5 (-115).

I make the Royals 54 percent winners in this road matchup which implies a moneyline price of -117. 24-year old Reese Olson is going to be a fine pitcher at some point, but I don't like the hard contact against this lineup.

Locking this in now at -118 on FanDuel. I make the number -137 (57.8% sim win%). I like this Orioles lineup against left-handed pitching, and I have major concerns with Tyler Anderson's barrel rate and massive gap in wOBA vs. xwOBA. I will share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.

I played the Astros -110 on SuperBook (also available at Bet365). I have Houston winning 56 percent of simulations which implies -127. I think this is a good buy low spot as we get a friendly wind day at Wrigley against a lefty.

Reid Detmers has been good to start the season for the Angels, but I like this Orioles offense against left-handed pitching. Baltimore has the ability to run 8 right-handed hitters to start the game if they want to. This is a nice individual matchup for Rutschman, Mountcastle, and Santander. I have the Orioles winning 53 percent of simulations which implies -113.

This line should be o9 with juice or o9.5 at +100. Dean Kremer and Alec Marsh have both significantly over-performed this season in terms of xwOBA. Both teams rank top 10 in MLB against RHP. I love that we can cash this with a 5-4 game. I'm on the OVER 8.5 (-115)

I played New York +100 on SuperBook. I make the Yankees 54 percent winners in this matchup with Stroman vs. Gausman, which implies a moneyline price of -117. I have major concerns about the barrel rate on Gausman's fastball, which is down in velocity early this season.

I'm backing the Rangers again today as Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford should be back in the lineup. I have Texas winning 57 percent of simulations which makes this line -133. Casey Mize has struggled with hard contact most of his career and he will again this season. You can find this at -118 on SuperBook.

I have the Rangers winning 57 percent of simulations which suggest this price should be -133. Reese Olson's barrel rate in early 2024 is nearly identical to the very poor mark he put up last season. The Rangers should have success against the slider and 4-seam fastball.