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    Matt Severance

    Severance Pays

    Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three MLB seasons, Matt is up $2,395 for $100 bettors. Over the past two NBA seasons, Matt has returned $3,215. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Matt is up $887. He went 103-89-2 (plus $665) in the 2023 college football season and 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    @jordanpaytonsn1
    LAST 263 NBA PICKS
    +2433.25
    RECORD: 164-99-0
    # 3 NBA EXPERT
    +2433.25
    164-99 IN LAST 263 NBA PICKS

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    Matt's Past Picks

    May 11 2024, 1:30 am UTC
    League
    Denver
    117
    @ Minnesota
    90
    +2433.25
    164-99 in Last 263 NBA Picks
    +2284
    106-51 in Last 157 NBA ML Picks
    +987
    25-8 in Last 33 DEN ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Why wait? I'm pretty sure Rudy Gobert won't have another kid between now and Game 3 and miss another. And there's a possibility that Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is suspended after throwing two things on the court during play in Game 2. How was he not booted for that? I doubt a suspension and the Nuggets surely will play desperate, but watching Monday night's game reminded me so much of the up-and-coming MJ Bulls finishing off the aging Pistons way-back-when -- with Anthony Edwards in the MJ role in 2024. I'm not saying Denver's window is closed going forward, but it simply can't match Minnesota's defense or athleticism right now.

    Pick Made: Tue 9:13 pm UTC
    May 10 2024, 11:05 pm UTC
    League
    Arizona
    2
    @ Baltimore
    4
    +1855.75
    139-76-1 in Last 216 MLB Picks
    +939.25
    54-31 in Last 85 MLB ML Picks
    +1729.5
    47-19 in Last 66 BAL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The D-backs played Thursday, and they have used their bullpen a significant amount the past two days. Always love to pfade Brandon Pfaadt on the road as well. If it were maybe any other Orioles starter but Cole Irvin -- although to be fair he has been great lately, but I'm not quite buying stock yet -- this might be a "going to sell my plasma" type bet. The word plasma amuses me.

    Pick Made: Fri 1:06 pm UTC
    May 10 2024, 11:00 pm UTC
    League
    New York
    106
    @ Indiana
    111
    +2433.25
    164-99 in Last 263 NBA Picks
    +2284
    106-51 in Last 157 NBA ML Picks
    +1185
    47-23 in Last 70 NY ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Dang it. Thought I could beat the books a little for Game 3 but in the 30 minutes it took to shower, etc., for the night ... I waited a bit too long as a line that opened as low as -180 is already rising and rising. I'm assuming Jalen Brunson will play since he returned to tonight's game, but if OG Anunoby can't after leaving with a hamstring injury, that's huge. Tom Thibodeau probably tries to sign 39-year-old Luol Deng and then play him 39 minutes on Friday -- sort of the basketball version of shooting your age in golf. Seriously, though, the Knicks could be comically thin and up 2-0 maybe they simply don't even chance it with OG.

    Pick Made: Thu 3:12 am UTC
    May 10 2024, 10:50 pm UTC
    League
    N.Y. Yankees
    2
    @ Tampa Bay
    0
    +1855.75
    139-76-1 in Last 216 MLB Picks
    Analysis:

    Lived in Tampa about 10 years. Only time the Trop would be remotely filled other than a Monster Truck Rally (sigh) is when the Yankees are in town. Everyone outside of Florida wonders why the Rays don't draw. First, their stadium is like in Ocala. Second, Tampa is a Yankees town (no one cares about St. Pete) 100 percent thanks to Big George. I actually was his neighbor for while. Back in the day there was this beautiful little island called Davis Island. I could never afford it now but then it was half skid-row college apartments, half multi-millionaires. Very strange. Jeter's place was there too. I had a point (this matters a little more than usual to home team) but got longwinded.

    Pick Made: Fri 8:57 pm UTC
    May 10 2024, 10:40 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    5
    @ Detroit
    2
    +1855.75
    139-76-1 in Last 216 MLB Picks
    +942.5
    23-7 in Last 30 HOU ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Think you guys know me. If I'm getting a team at essentially the same price at home +1.5 as the (perhaps) only slightly better visiting team's moneyline price, I'm taking it every day. Feels like such a letdown for the Astros off a big series at the Yankees and all their key relievers did pitch a fair amount Thursday. Not saying not available tonight but may be a factor. Detroit was off Thursday. The issue always with the Tigers if they will hit enough. Why I often don't play them straight up. Former No.1 overall pick Casey Mize has a 3.27 home ERA. Very fine on this solo but will personally play with alt Under 9.5 (love that) at a price of +160.

    Pick Made: Fri 12:38 pm UTC
    May 10 2024, 1:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    119
    @ Oklahoma City
    110
    +2433.25
    164-99 in Last 263 NBA Picks
    +2284
    106-51 in Last 157 NBA ML Picks
    +952.5
    36-17 in Last 53 DAL ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Did anything happen in Game 1 to believe something different happens in Game 2? I don't think so. Man, the Thunder were flying around defensively. Really impressive. Hard not to like that team, which might dominate the NBA for the rest of the decade with all those draft picks to trade for additional talent. Luka Doncic looked old and slow in the opener.

    Pick Made: Wed 1:38 pm UTC
    May 09 2024, 11:00 pm UTC
    League
    N.Y. Rangers
    3
    @ Carolina
    2
    +46
    2-1 in Last 3 NHL ML Picks
    +1888
    50-23 in Last 73 CAR ML Picks
    Analysis:

    I was pondering Rangers puckline but this ML has come down 20 cents so I'll back the desperate home team. The Blushirts aren't going unbeaten in these playoffs. Probably. Perhaps having the last line change will help the Canes slow a New York offense that scored four in each of the first two games. Generally, teams are better on special teams at home and that's why Carolina is down 2-0. The Rangers are 4-for-9 on the power play and 10-for-10 on the penalty kill.

    Pick Made: Thu 3:01 pm UTC
    May 09 2024, 7:10 pm UTC
    League
    San Francisco
    1
    @ Colorado
    9
    +1855.75
    139-76-1 in Last 216 MLB Picks
    +999
    42-31 in Last 73 COL ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    For whatever reason, I didn't play the Rockies RL the first two games of this series at great prices like I usually do. Good thing as they lost both by multiple runs. But it's the end of a very long trip for the Giants so an obvious letdown spot behind Keaton Winn (3-4, 4.41), who comes off his worst start of the year. Colorado's Cal Quantrill comes off his best start and has four quality starts in seven trips to the mound -- but his other three were not good. So who knows? A couple of SF regulars are out led by Matt Chapman.

    Pick Made: Thu 4:33 pm UTC
    May 09 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    Arizona
    5
    @ Cincinnati
    4
    +1855.75
    139-76-1 in Last 216 MLB Picks
    +874
    30-15 in Last 45 ARI ATS Picks
    Analysis:

    Even on a seven-game losing streak, don't think the Reds should be getting +1.5 (only at FanDuel), and they are short moneyline favorites everywhere. Important to end the skid here ahead of a road trip. Arizona faces the "good" Hunter Greene of Cincinnati here. The righty is always a bit Jekyll and Hyde with nasty but sometimes wild stuff. Greene is riding a career-high 14.2 innings scoreless streak, and his lone career home start vs. the Snakes produced seven shutout innings.

    Pick Made: Thu 1:35 am UTC
    May 09 2024, 5:10 pm UTC
    League
    Seattle
    1
    @ Minnesota
    11
    +537.75
    28-8 in Last 36 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Gilbert has allowed more than two earned just once all season and the winds are blowing in some at Target Field this afternoon. A couple of Twins regulars are sitting led by Carlos Correa. Gilbert is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three career starts vs. Minnesota. Certainly would have considered Over 17.5 outs but it's -205.

    Pick Made: Thu 2:11 pm UTC
    May 09 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Indiana
    121
    @ New York
    130
    +800.5
    33-16 in Last 49 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I mean, good for Brunson if he scores 40 again but come on? What a crazy number. Maybe a box-and-one on him Rick Carlisle? Picket fence? Oh wait, that's Hoosiers and good for someone like Brunson. One cold quarter, one tweaked ankle and this is a win. And JB "only" had 22 points through three quarters in Game 1. Don't all these minutes have to take a toll eventually?

    Pick Made: Wed 4:10 am UTC
    May 08 2024, 11:30 pm UTC
    League
    Boston
    1
    @ Florida
    6
    +46
    2-1 in Last 3 NHL ML Picks
    +229
    6-3 in Last 9 FLA ML Picks
    Analysis:

    Totally kicking myself for Game 1 as I had Bruins locked and loaded at +1.5 ... and then changed my mind at the last second and took Florida ML. If this were an MLB game, Boston +1.5 would be priced very reasonably and I'd totally play it here. But -190? I expect the Panthers to shake off any rust they had in the opener. But no result surprises me at this point in the postseason. My NHL betting interest definitely goes down this time of year because it's almost impossible to find value on the main game odds. Props are a different story.

    Pick Made: Wed 8:17 pm UTC
    May 08 2024, 11:05 pm UTC
    League
    Houston
    4
    @ N.Y. Yankees
    9
    +1855.75
    139-76-1 in Last 216 MLB Picks
    +939.25
    54-31 in Last 85 MLB ML Picks
    Analysis:

    The Yankees are rolling and their entire bullpen should be available if needed behind Carlos Rodon, who is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA at home. But the only reason I'm playing this is struggling Houston rookie pitcher Spencer Arrighetti (0-3, 8.27 ERA), who might be ticketed back to the minors afterward.

    Pick Made: Wed 8:32 pm UTC
    May 08 2024, 10:45 pm UTC
    League
    Baltimore
    7
    @ Washington
    6
    +537.75
    28-8 in Last 36 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Is Nats rookie Mitchell Parker (2.53 ERA) really this good? The lefty has gone at least five in three of his four outings and the Orioles have never seen him. If Parker keeps avoiding walks (only four in 21.1 innings), we should get five innings here obviously barring the O's shelling him -- which is certainly possible.

    Pick Made: Wed 2:29 pm UTC
    May 08 2024, 10:40 pm UTC
    League
    Arizona
    4
    @ Cincinnati
    3
    +537.75
    28-8 in Last 36 MLB Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    We'll go right back to this after winning on it last night as Carroll is leading off again for the Snakes and starting to get hot with five hits in his past three and back-to-back games scoring a run. He's 2-for-3 career off Reds starter Graham Ashcraft.

    Pick Made: Wed 6:57 pm UTC