Pascal Siakam has scored 19 points or less in five straight games after scoring 37, 36, and 28 in his prior three contests. The Pacers want to feed him the ball more because they are 10-4 when he scores 25 or more points since being traded to Indiana.

After dropping the first game, the Indiana Pacers bounced back with a vengeance in game two against the Milwaukee Bucks in round one. The New York Knicks played three starters for over 40 minutes on Tuesday, but they need more depth and could be playing with "heavy" legs. The road team has a great chance to win outright, so let's take the points!

Kenta Maeda has allowed just one earned run in his past two starts and still has a 6.06 FIP. His biggest issue is that his fastball and change-up are only separated by 7 MPH. The Tigers rank 23rd in OPS vs. Lefties. Logan Allen has a solid 44.3% ground ball rate and should have success against this Tigers’ lineup.

The Atlanta Braves hope to avoid a three-game sweep as they send Max Fried to the mound. Max is a reliable pitcher with an impressive 67% ground-ball rate and a remarkable 25% hard-hit rate. James Paxton has pitched much better at night during his long career and has a 5.55 FIP this season. With a ground-ball rate of 38.7% and a hard-hit rate of 46.8%, it seems like a bad match against this Braves team. James Paxton has also had more walks (22) than strikeouts (15) in the 25.2 this season. Atlanta had just six hits in each of the first two games. The Dodgers' All-Star catcher, Will Smith, does not start in day games that follow night games. Play Atlanta!

Freddie Freeman has hit just two home runs in 120 at-bats this season. He usually has big games after a day off because he's a student of the game and puts in a lot of work. Freeman is batting .500 with three home runs and 7 RBI in 20 career at-bats against Morton. I also like Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at -115. Dodgers have playoff revenge in this series.

The New York Knicks had three players (Brunson, Hart, and Anunoby) log over 50 minutes in game five. Closeout games are extremely difficult on the road, and the 76ers will have the added benefit of feeding off energy from the home crowd. Joel Embiid had just 19 points on 7-for-19 shooting, and Philadelphia was -5.5 in that crucial game three, which they won by 9 points. I think there will be a game seven at MSG on Saturday.

This is a rematch from last Thursday when Cole Ragans and the Royals defeated Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays. If you have followed me through the years, you know this angle has produced more winners than any system in all sports combined. It’s tough for a pitcher to defeat the same team twice in five days. The Blue Jays are ranked fifth in American League OPS vs. left-handed starters. Strong play on Toronto!

Daulton Varsho has a good record against Michael Grove, having batted .429 with two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. Let's take a shot at +500!

It's daunting to go against the Dodgers, who have a six-game winning streak. However, the Blue Jays hope to avoid a three-game sweep by sending Kevin Gausman to the mound. Toronto's three and four batters, Varsho and Turner, had a rough day, going 0-for-8 with five strikeouts on Saturday. Nonetheless, Varsho has a good record against Michael Grove, having batted .429 with two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. Hence, I plan to add his home run prop. Following this game, the Dodgers will fly to Arizona for a series against the D-Backs. Play Toronto!

Oakland's starting pitcher, JP Sears, has a 4.25 FIP and a 30.4% ground-ball rate. He prefers to pitch to contact, with only 16 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched and is coming off a season-high seven strikeouts against the Yankees. The Orioles offense is expected to perform well, as they rank third in OPS (.800) against left-handed pitchers. Baltimore ranks 12th in the fewest strikeouts per game.

The Tampa Bay Lightning return home after two one-goal losses while getting out-shot in both games. The Panthers are now 4-1 vs. Tampa Bay this season. I have to believe that the Lightning will play one of their best games, knowing they can’t go down 3-0 and expect to win the series. Tampa Bay has a championship pedigree, and it should be on full display at Amalie Arena.

This will be the Cavs' first road game in just over two weeks, and they have lost 8 of their past ten games away from home. We all know that role players perform better at home, and the Magic went 29-12 at Kia Center. Their road/home splits are very telling, as they rank fifth in point differential at home (+7.8) compared to -3.8 in away games. The sold-out crowd of 18,846 will be fired up for Orlando's first home playoff game since 2019. Play the Magic in this must win game!

Cal Raleigh is batting .313 with two home runs in 16 career at-bats against Dunning. Dunning's FIP is 6.18, xERA is 6.81, and his hard-hit rate is 51.7%, which ranks as the 6th worst among all starting pitchers with at least three starts according to Baseball Savant. This is not good in a hitters' park like Global Life Field. The Rangers' available bullpen has an ERA of 5.66. You can find +300 at most books!

This is a rematch of last year's playoffs' first round, where the LA Kings won 4-3 in OT at Edmonton. In that contest, the Oilers were -220, but they have improved their roster and now have a more balanced and efficient team. The Oilers learned a lot from that loss and eventually won the series in six games. They are currently ranked fifth in shots against and have a +461 shot differential. Last season, they were ranked 18th in shots against with a +182 shot differential. Edmonton has four players (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Bouchard) ranked in the top 46 in points this season. Play Edmonton!

In the past ten games, Willy Adames has been a machine, securing at least one hit in 8 of those matchups. If we zoom in even further, he's been averaging a jaw-dropping 1.8 hits per game over the last five games, hitting over 0.5 hits in each. Pirates' starter Jared Jones has issued just two walks in 23 innings, so Adames will get something to hit. The Pirates available bullpen has an ERA of 4.98. Willy is slated to bat third, so getting at least one hit in at least four plate appearances seems likely. This line should be closer to -180.