Trevor Rogers has struggled this season and the lefty owns an ERA of over 6.00. Rogers has the unenviable task of facing arguably the hottest lineup in the MLB in the Phillies. Philadelphia does possess a high K rate versus southpaws, however they have faced Rogers quite a few times, in addition to Rogers averaging a career worst SwStr%.

I love Charlie Morton, the pride of Flemington, New Jersey, however this is simply a huge number for Morton at this stage of his career, in addition to being a difficult matchup. Morton is sporting the lowest K rate, as well as the lowest SwStr% he has posted over his last 10 seasons. He faces a Mets lineup that has a whipping 241 ABs against Morton, in addition to possessing the 6th lowest K rate against opposing right handed pitching. This is a tough spot for the veteran pitcher who has failed to eclipse this line in 5 of his 6 starts this season.

Yusei Kikuchi is having a career season and the 6th year starter has pitched 6 IP in five consecutive appearances. He will face a Minnesota Twins lineup that has been red hot, and have been excellent against opposing southpaws as they own the 4th highest OPS versus lefties. I would argue this is one of the most difficult matchups with the way the Twins are presently playing.

TJ McConnell has been excellent in this series and is coming off 10 point, 12 assist performance, where the veteran PG racked up double digit assists in the first half. Pacer fans and NBA fans alike are wondering why McConnell didn't close the game considering how effective he was but it simply is hard to play him and Tyrese Haliburton simultaneously considering theyre both ball dominant. TJ also doesn't offer much of a threat from the perimeter and isn't nearly as effective if he isn't running the offense. He also greatly benefits from coming off the bench and facing the opponents second unit, which is why I don't see his minutes suddenly rising as they would come at the expense of Tyrese Haliburton.

Jared Jones has been phenomenal all season and possesses exceptional strikeout metrics. With that being said, this is a big number and considering the Pirates do not like pushing their young Ace too hard, he really has very minimal margin for error having to accumulate 8 Ks in around 90 pitches. All it takes is one poor inning where he pitches 25+ pitches to set him off course. The Cubs qualify as a solid matchup, however their lineup is a lot tougher/stingier with Cody Bellinger back. I'm betting on some regression.

This number is simply way too low for Framber Valdez, especially in what I consider a plus matchup. All of Framber's numbers have dipped this season but his K metrics check out and he's run cold so far in that department. Valdez is averaging the 2nd highest CSW% of his seven year career. If Valdez gets in 5+ IP today, I love his chances of eclipsing 5+ Ks.

I like this as a potential "get right" spot for Michael Wacha who has struggled over his last three consecutive starts, failing to go 6 IP and giving up a whopping 13 ER over 13.2 IP. Wacha gets a solid matchup against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that is average at best without Mike Trout in the lineup and who he has had historical success against.

I am surprised that KC isn't a bigger favorite against an middling Angels team. While it's a tough travel spot for both clubs, the Angels are 4-11 at home and without their best player in Mike Trout. I also would give a slight edge to Michael Wacha in this spot as well. I like the Royals to roll.

If you watched any of my stream appearances the last few days I have raised some major concerns watching Luka Doncic who clearly is operating at less than 100%. This doesn't bode well for Dallas in a series they were in for a dog fight even if Luka was operating at full powers. However Kyrie Irving looks healthy to me and I anticipate his offensive responsibilities growing as a result. Dallas will need Kyrie to probably average close to 30 on efficient scoring to even have a shot in this series. Look for Kyrie to play huge minutes in Game 2 and Dallas to be much sharper with more energy as well.

Going right back to the well as White has yet to eclipse this combo line in the playoffs and has been held under 9 combined Reb + Ast in a whopping 25 of his last 27 playoff games. This line is simply a tick too high, particularly in what projects to be a low scoring environment with minimal possessions. Will be fading him here until White proves otherwise.

Jordan Hicks has had a nice season and this number is simply too low against the Rockies, even in a hitter friendly environment like Coors Field. He will face a Colorado lineup that has a whopping 28.3% K Rate versus opposing right handed pitchers this season. I would also argue that Hicks is running cold on strikeouts and is a positive regression candidate considering he is averaging the lowest K Rate of his career, despite his metrics being in line with his career averages.

Josh Hart played a whopping 48 minutes in Game 1 and had one of the best games of his NBA career in the process. This is easily the biggest combo line I have ever witnessed for Josh Hart and while he's clearly proven to be a high leverage performer, I have to fade him at this number on principle. I don't expect Hart is fall on his face, however I do not believe this level of production is sustainable for the versatile forward. A lot has to go right including playing 45+ minutes.

I like this spot for Chris Paddack against a struggling Mariners lineup that possesses a below average .663 OPS against right handed pitching on the season. Paddack meanwhile has gone at least 5.1 in three of his last four starts and has pitched well on the season outside of one truly dismal start against the Orioles. Paddack has been lights out at home and will look to provide another quality start in what I consider a plus matchup.

The Houston Astros possess the lowest K Rate in the majors this season and are excellent against opposing southpaws. This does not bode well for Carlos Rodon who has not pitched great this season for the Yankees and appears to be on the decline, particularly in the strikeout department. The Astros have a lot of experience against Rodon as well and their projected lineup has good numbers against Rodon. I feel this number should be 4.5 considering the matchup and Rodon's present form.

I've long argued JP Sears is underrated and it is about times the books have come around, however with that being said this is a big line against a red hot Rangers lineup. The Rangers have scored 37 runs over their last four games which have all been victories as well. The Rangers are also very familiar with Sears who they have already seen this season. The Rangers have really struggled against opposing sotuhpaws but I believe this is a spot that where they have an advantage.