3 Expert Picks
Game 7s are slow and paced down. ...
Josh Hart is currently questionable for tomorrow. ...
How Low Will They Go?
Past Picks
The Oklahoma City Thunder should already be eliminated with as poor as they have played offensively against the Dallas Mavericks. Yet, they found a way in game four with a late rally at Dallas, and all it takes is that one game for a team to wake up in the postseason. Take the Thunder to finally look a bit more fluid offensively for the first time since game one.
Luka Doncic is getting stronger as this series goes on. He is also getting help outside of Kyrie Irving from PJ Washington (19 ppg in this series) and Derrick Jones (11 ppg in this series). Mavs roll at home.
Luka is on a mission and even with Kyrie still too much of a facilitator/passenger and Mavs are clearly the superior team. If hey made a few foul shots in Game 4 series already over. I don't see this experienced backcourt blow a chance to close it out at home. SGA can have all the lay-ups he wants; OKC's starting lineup change kinda backfired, Mavs rotating bigs (Lively and Gafford) are a problem. Jalen Williams 41% from field in series; Dort 31%,, Giddy -5. OKC still missing one piece to win a series like this and losses at home will come back to bite them here. When Mavs beat you at home by 12 with Luka and Kyrie only totaling 43, you're in trouble.
As this series has progressed, the Mavs have gradually figured out how to slow the Thunder, whose offense at times seems reduced to SGA going solo and trying to keep OKC in the game by himself. Indeed, save for late in Monday's Game 4, Dallas might have already wrapped up this series. Defense has been surprisingly good for the Mavs, who are also very happy to play the sort of halfcourt game that suits Luka Doncic and his sore legs quite well in mid-May. The emergence of PJ Washington and Derrick Lively as new threats have allowed Jason Kidd's offense to function even with lower usage rates by Luka & Kyrie, and signals this series might be ready to end tonight. Play Mavs
There’s better odds out there for this one. The Pacers have been dominated on the glass for most of the series. Pascal Siakam has had eight rebounds, or less, in five out of the last seven playoff games. This season against New York, he’s went under this number in six out of nine games. The Knicks looked determined and focused after their game five win to possibly close out the series tonight and control the boards.
No OG Anunoby again tonight for New York. Alec Burks has continued to see an increase in minutes over the last three games. Burks has averaged over 22 minutes and has scored 14, 20, and 18 points in the last three contests. He’s a veteran and shown that he can gave the team some production off the bench.
This is just a huge number for Josh Hart who has been tremendous in this series, however so much has to go right for a 6'4'' guard to eclipse at least 18 combined rebounds and assists. I also believe we could see fewer possessions in this game compared to what we saw earlier in the series as well. As well know, fewer possessions = fewer opportunities for rebounds and assists. This number is ultimately closer to Harts ceiling.
This clunky yet entertaining series, with 90s throwback vibes, seems destined to go the full seven games. The severely short-handed Knicks managed an unlike 30-point blowout in Game 5 behind another gem from Jalen Brunson. And while he might do it again in Game 7, it's asking a lot for the Knicks to give a cover-worthy performance Friday against a deeper opponent with home-court advantage.
During this postseason we have seen the Indiana Pacers be a resilient group off a loss. Game five featured a high level effort from the Knicks in particular Jalen Brunson. Expect the Pacers to re-adjust defensively and be more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. This goes seven games like the Twolves-Nuggets. Lay it with the Pacers.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks closed it out here. They are gritty and gutty and have been the better team finding ways to win close games in this series. Of course, the last game in IND was a blowout win for the Pacers, with Brunson scoring just 18 points. I just don't see that happening again, and the Knicks are the more physical team and they are better at the little things. NYK getting 55% of rebounds (big margin) and getting to line 7 times more than Pacers/Game. Pacers are just 17-16-1 ATS as home favorite. I see this coming down to the last few possessions, where Brunson's elite shot-making and ability to draw fouls could be the difference.
Are the Pacers a superior team the likes of which they just can't lost at home? I know they haven't yet this postseason, but given their defensive issues, their streaky shooting, their inability to prevent the Knicks from dominating the offensive boards, Halliburton's erratic play and the fact the best player in this series plays for NYK (Brunson), I could definitely see NY closing this out on the road. The extra day of rest, coming off a win, huge for NYK. I like what McBride and Burks are providing and if Hartenstein rules the boards again (I think he will), too many second-chance points for the Knicks. The lack of a true go-to finisher could be the difference here.
Like many role players, Aaron Nesmith shoots better at home: overall, from deep and at the foul line. That's one reason I bet him to score at least 10 points in Game 6. As long as Game 6 doesn't turn into another blowout, Nesmith will play 30-plus minutes as Jalen Brunson's primary defender. Nesmith torched the Knicks for 18.3 points per game in three regular-season meetings, though he's Over this number in only two of five playoff matchups. Look for him to be aggressive offensively and attack Brunson, who cannot afford to get into foul trouble.