Luka is looking a little banged up and not quite himself and exerting a lot of effort defensively. Including on trying to slow down Harden. Kyrie was a slow starter in this series but we thought he'd go way over 30 in the last game, and with Gafford banged up, too, he has to carry a heavy scoring load in what might be a seven-game series now. Expect him to be assertive from range and getting to the rim; if they can get Zubac in foul trouble while Kawhi is out, a lot of offensive possibilities will open up for Dallas. I was wrong in this series; Mavs are in trouble and need their stars to shine very bright here.

The D-Backs switching from Zac Gallen to Jordan Montgomery here is interesting with Gallen's hammy a little tight and Monty only a few outings back after a loooong free agency (thanks Boras!). Will Smith is 2/4 vs this lefty starter and his slashline vs lefties this season: .457/.524/.714. Yikes. The forgotten man in the Dodgers loaded lineup is have a nice season again at the plate, batting .362. Has a 5-game hitting streak with 11 total hits in that span. Recently had back-to-back four hit games.

If you take out the horrible inning in Korea, the Dodgers starter has been pretty damn good. Could be more efficient but his stuff is nasty and the Snakes haven't hit the ball like I thought they would and I like some of these righty Dodgers bats against Jordan Montgomery - a high-end starter who is still trying to make up for all the lost time as a free agent during spring training

The Stros have had all kinds of issues at the plate, but their leadoff guy is hitting .345 for the season and he's looking pretty locked in right now and he's 6/18 vs the Guardians starter, who got a late start to the season and can be very pitch-inefficient and might have a rough task tonight. Altuve is over this in 4 of the last 6 games and we know he can be a doubles machine.

The backdoor cover gives me pause, but BOS was an elite first half team at home all season, they have been grabbing hold of these games against the wounded Heat quickly and I project them to take a double-digit lead into the half. Porzingis wasn't scoring much anyway, and Al Horford will help defensively against Bam. Boston smells blood and the Heat's injuries are chronic and outside of a flurry in Game 2 they haven't shot nearly good enough from the outside to trouble the Celtics

The Padres are scuffling, again, they have pen issues and don't string a lot of wins together and the chemistry just seems off there. Again. Their impact bats - Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Campusano with his hot start - are all from the right side, and Ashcroft is very tough on righties. Joe Musgrove has really struggled this season and we've faded him a bunch.

Pittsburgh weary after a long trip on California and will have one eye on that long plane ride back to PA. Weird start time for them. Running out a starter who has a tendency to get hit hard and who will probably settle into their pen. Stripling has pitched better than his number for the plucky A's, he kept a strong Baltimore lineup very unsettled in his last outing and the Oakland bullpen is far super to Pittsburgh's. I like the home team here

We continue to back Seth Lugo, who has mesmerize the American League thus far and he faces an erratic offense here that has too many guys swinging and missing and trying to hit everything out of the park. The Royals have three straight shutouts when Lugo pitches and have outscored teams 41-4 in his 6 starts. Bassitt is nothing special for the Blue Jays.

Twins have won 9 in a row, a streak that began with them beating up on these same Pale Hose, including a game in which Chris Flexen couldn't get through the third inning. Flexen has allowed 13 ER in his last 3 starts, only one of which went beyong 4 1/3 IP. Twins bats are in a much better spot now, and White Sox have had some late-inning heroics of late but have been slow starters at the plate all season.

Guy is producing most nights and continues to do damage in the middle of this lineup. Has a career OP vs Castillo of just under 1000.in 17 career ABs. Driven in 31 on the season and 15 in his last 15 games and hasn't driven one in 3 days - with this return we are back on this prop. Easy to find a gap in this big Seattle ballpark

The M's have no pop and Julio is off to another slow start and outside of Haniger or Raliegh running into an occasional ambush early-count fastball I don't see much here. The Braves starter has been really good and the Bravos saw Castillo plenty from his time with the Reds. Seattle just cant score enough to keep pace and the margins are going to be really right here. I think this ballpark will play well for the Braves bats