Justin Verlander looks just fine at age 41 for Houston, while Cleveland's Triston McKenzie (4.91 ERA) has seen a big drop in velo since his last fully healthy 2022 season. And the bullpen behind him is super-thin as the Guardians' top three high-leverage guys led by closer Emmanuel Clase have pitched three of the past four days so are probably all unavailable. Thus, we will avoid first five.

The Guardians have played three straight extra-innings games, using six relievers for each of the last two. Even with an off-day sandwiched between, that's a lot of work for the bullpen, and they'll need Triston McKenzie to give them at least five innings today. The Astros have an above average offense but just played a pair of games in Mexico City and then followed an off-day with an extra-innings affair, and it's possible the schedule catches up to them today. Expect the Guardians to emphasize McKenzie throwing strikes to give them length in this matchup, which will help combat the primary reason for his short outings: a 6.95 BB/9 rate.

The Stros have had all kinds of issues at the plate, but their leadoff guy is hitting .345 for the season and he's looking pretty locked in right now and he's 6/18 vs the Guardians starter, who got a late start to the season and can be very pitch-inefficient and might have a rough task tonight. Altuve is over this in 4 of the last 6 games and we know he can be a doubles machine.

The Guardians are once again a tough strikeout matchup for opposing pitchers as they rank in the bottom five against right handed pitchers. They usually employ a heavy amount of lefties, which has been the tougher side for Verlander in terms of whiff rate and CSW%. While we saw Hunter Brown strike out seven on Tuesday night, he also got a bit lucky, punching out the final four batters he faced, as he only had three strikeouts through the first four innings. Verlander hasn't looked bad since his return but asking for six strikeouts vs the Guardians is not a small task.

Justin Verlanders strike out metrics have been on the decline for a while and last season was the first time he had a sub 10% SwStr% since the 2014 season. He will face a Guardians lineup that has the 4th lowest K rate against opposing right handed pitchers and has been the stingiest lineup in baseball from a strikeout standpoint for three consecutive seasons.

Triston McKenzie has the unenviable task of facing the Houston Astros who possess the lowest K rate in the league this season. McKenzie's underlying metrics haven't been great either and 5 Ks is a tall order for him against a lineup like Houstons.